Battle of Baghdad
BY NIBRAS KAZIMI
August 9, 2006
URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/37573

For the past few weeks, Baghdad was astir with news of an imminent coup d'etat. Those in power were worried, and those near power were looking forward to a political reshuffle from which they would emerge ahead. The scene included ambitious officers who half-jokingly promised plush diplomatic posts to their civilian friends, and prominent politicians who assumed that the military conspirators would call upon them to lead the country through a government of national unity. Desperate times require desperate measures, and most of the Iraqi political class in the Green Zone reasoned that the Americans could see no way out in Iraq except through bringing in a man of steel to save the day. No more rowdy democracy, no more muddled constitutional interpretation; stability would be measured by boots marching in unison and military bands banging away in tune.

I was recently challenged to a bet by a prominent Iraqi officer: the Americans will give the go ahead to the Iraqi Army to seize power within six months. I was looking forward to meeting this officer, who had made a name for himself in the press as a can-do enforcer giving chase to the terrorists. He was relatively young, charismatic and confident. But he was also afflicted with every Middle Eastern officer's fantasy: the belief that he alone can bring about national order and glory. As the head of a security brigade, his men had recently been outfitted with armored troop transports and heavy guns, and he made the claim to me that he could occupy Baghdad in four hours. He believes that it was only a matter of time until the Americans come to him and ask him to take over. If he wins, I buy him lunch, and if I win, well, I get to vote again in three years for a new parliament.

Iraq has had a bad experience with coups; after all, the Saddam regime came about through one. There had been such a rash of coups in the 1950s and 1960s and in some of these coups, an American hand could be discerned, including the first time the Ba'athists came to power while riding a tank through the palace gates.

Baghdad is paralyzed with fear, the shops are closed and the streets are empty. It seems that entire middle class neighborhoods have moved to Amman, Damascus, and Cairo. It has never looked or felt so bad, never mind the numbers of innocents who are daily getting chewed up by sectarian strife. In despair, there are many who would trade away such messy luxuries as freedom, democracy and constitutional rights for khaki-tinged tidiness. Hence the whispers and now audible warnings of a coup in the making.

But barring a serious (not to mention disastrous) turn-around in American policy, such a jarring change in the political order will not come about. Most Iraqi army officers, when asked if they were planning something illegal, did not even feign a commitment to their limited role as guardians of Iraq's defenses under the command of a civilian leadership, but rather dismissed such speculation by saying that they can't do much with the American military in Iraq looking over their shoulders. But the desire for a coup is there, and that in itself is a dangerous flaw in how the new Iraqi military is being trained by the Americans — even though they are nominally the only level of oversight holding them back.

Iraq's new defense minister, General Abdel-Qader Al-‘Ubaidi, gets many accolades both from the officers under him as well as the politicians in the cabinet and parliament. He was a good choice for the job, but an unconstitutional one. The founding document of Iraq's democracy states that no one in uniform can take on a civilian governmental position after leaving the armed services, unless a specified period of time had elapsed. It was ordained so with Iraq's history of turbulent coups in mind, and as a reminder to the military brass that it was the civilians who now called the shots. This was not the case with General ‘Ubaidi, who left his command of Iraq's infantry and took on the defense portfolio without the constitutionally mandated grace period. What is more dangerous is that no one is talking about it. That encourages the younger officers to be contemptuous of the political leadership and await an opportunity to seize the controls for themselves.

Ayad Allawi's camp is fueling talk of a military take-over, with the caveat that the Americans want him back in charge of a national unity government. Some are also interpreting the charm campaign by the suave and gentlemanly deputy commander of Iraq's Joint Forces Command, General Nasier Abadi, who was making the rounds in Washington and New York last week, as an American Plan B to introduce a new Iraqi face for some future political exit strategy. The whole thinking is precipitated on the notion that liberal democracies cannot fight virulent insurgencies, and that only a military dictatorship can hold Iraq together. But officers are trained to kill and destroy, not to build and govern. All too often, this basic fact is forgotten in the Middle East and elsewhere.

The battle for Baghdad can be won by the Iraqi government and Coalition forces in three weeks. There is a one month opening until mid-September to convince Iraq's middle class — the people who run the country and keep it together — that the state is still salvageable. Otherwise, with the summer drawing to a close, they will have to decide whether their exile and hiding is going to be of a more permanent nature and will plan ahead accordingly. The good news is that Sunni insurgency is exhausted and there is plenty of internal chatter questioning just how long they can keep up the pace of the violence. Their equal numbers in mayhem, the Mahdi Army militias, have descended into a chaotic grab for money, rather than a concerted effort to wage a civil war. The latter are not Hezbollah, and they can be confronted and scattered relatively easily. Secure Baghdad, and those who stand against the state will be demoralized and broken, and the middle-class will be tempted to risk retaking their country back from the hooligans. Success hinges on how many people can be made to believe that victory is still tenable.

The nascent political process in Iraq is worth sacrificing for. In the grand scheme of things, the prognosis for Iraq looks much healthier than the stale regimes around it in the Middle East, each resting for now atop a nest of time bombs. Although the numbers of dead and dying speak otherwise, the storm has passed Iraq, and there are many positive achievements to take advantage of in order to cripple the militias and the insurgents further, and to begin the process of turning them back. One such advantage is the new and disciplined Iraqi army that clearly enjoys confidence and leadership. Such a tool should not be encouraged to spend its time contemplating idle fantasies of a coup, but rather should be wielded now in an all or nothing battle for the preservation of the state of Iraq.

Mr. Kazimi can be reached at nibraska@yahoo.com

=========================================================

The Battle of Baghdad

By ZALMAY KHALILZAD
August 23, 2006; Page A10

BAGHDAD -- Although there has been much good news to report about security progress in Iraq this summer -- the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the handover of security responsibility for Muthanna province, the fifth of 10 Iraqi Army Division Headquarters to assume the lead in its area of responsibility -- Iraq faces an urgent crisis in securing its capital, Baghdad. Although Iraqi leaders and the Coalition have a sound strategy to turn the situation around, it is vital that Iraqis control sectarian violence and come together against the terrorists and outside powers that are fomenting the violence.

In July, there were 558 violent incidents in Baghdad, a 10% increase over the already high monthly average. These attacks caused 2,100 deaths, again an increase over the four-month average. More alarmingly, 77% of these casualties were the result of sectarian violence, giving rise to fears of an impending civil war in Iraq. While statistics should not be the sole measure of progress or failure in stabilizing Iraq and quelling violent sectarianism, it is clear that the people of Baghdad are being subjected to unacceptable levels of fear and violence.

* * *
This trend is especially troubling because we cannot achieve our goal of a secure, stable and democratic Iraq if such devastating violence persists in the capital. Baghdad represents one-fifth of Iraq's total population, and is a microcosm of Iraq's diverse ethnic and sectarian communities. Baghdad is also Iraq's financial and media center, the latter of which is especially important given that the declared strategy of the terrorists and violent sectarian groups in Iraq revolves around creating a perception of growing chaos in an effort to persuade Americans that the effort in Iraq has failed. Therefore, violence in Baghdad has a disproportionate psychological and strategic effect.

The deterioration of security in Baghdad since February's attack on the Samara Mosque is the result of the competition between Sunni and Shiite extremists to expand their control and influence throughout the capital. Although the leadership of al Qaeda in Iraq has been significantly attrited, it still has cells capable of operating independently in Baghdad by deploying car bombs to Shiite neighborhoods. At the same time, Sunni and Shiite death squads, some acting as Iranian surrogates, are responsible for an increasing share of the violence. This cycle of retaliatory violence is compounded by shortcomings in the training and leadership of Iraq's National Police. To combat this complex problem, Iraq's national unity government, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has made securing Baghdad its top priority. The government's Baghdad Security Plan has three principal components:

• Stabilizing Baghdad zone by zone: Four Iraqi Army battalions, two Coalition brigades and five military police companies will be redeployed to Baghdad, resulting in more than 12,000 additional forces on the city's streets. The National Police will simultaneously undergo intensive retraining, with each brigade to be subjected to a three-day assessment period, with its leadership evaluated and, if necessary, replaced. Each brigade will subsequently receive additional training focused on countering violent sectarianism before redeployment. Over the last 10 days this approach began to be implemented in five areas of Baghdad -- Doura, Ghazaliyah, Rashid, Ahmeriyya and Mansour. In coming weeks other districts will be added.


Iraqi government and Coalition forces are adopting new tactics to stem sectarian killings. Increased checkpoints and patrols are being used to deny freedom of movement and safe haven to sectarian killers. The leaders of the death squads are being targeted. Security forces have started to work with cross-sectarian neighborhood committees. These and other new tactics will drive toward the goal of achieving security neighborhood by neighborhood. As each district of Baghdad is secured, operations will expand into contiguous zones over coming weeks and months.

• Disrupting support zones: Even as Iraqi and Coalition forces concentrate on securing specific neighborhoods, they will continue to conduct targeted operations in other zones that are staging areas for the violence. This includes targeted raids and other operations on areas outside of Baghdad's center, where planning cells, car-bomb factories and terrorist safe houses are located. This will degrade the ability of the terrorists and death squads to mount offensive operations into the areas we are working to stabilize.

• Undertaking civic action and economic development: One of the most tragic elements of the increasing violence in Baghdad is that it has robbed the Iraqi people of the sense of normalcy they desperately seek after living under crushing tyranny for more than three decades. In the immediate aftermath of Iraq's liberation, the entrepreneurial spirit of the Iraqi people was demonstrated as Baghdad's shops overflowed with consumer goods prohibited under the previous regime. However, the increasing violence in the streets of Baghdad has forced many Iraqis to close their shops for fear of their safety.

Consequently, after joint Coalition and Iraqi military operations have secured a neighborhood or district, a structure of Iraqi security forces sufficient to maintain the peace is expected to be left in place and reinforced with the capacity to undertake civic action and foster economic revitalization. This will be supported with $500 million in funds from Prime Minister Maliki's government and at least $130 million of U.S. funds.

These economic support funds will be used to offer vocational training and create jobs, especially for 17-to-25-year-old males; to foster public support through improved services, such as medical care and trash and debris removal; and to build local governmental capacity to protect and provide for their citizens. These goals will be achieved through a mixture of high-impact, short-term programs; mid-term programs designed to stabilize these initial gains; and programs focused on long-term economic development. Prime Minister Maliki's plan for securing Baghdad is also closely tied to the national unity government's larger program for reconciliation, which seeks to foster political understanding between Sunni and Shiite forces, including those that either control or influence unauthorized armed groups involved in sectarian conflict.

In addition, a moral compact between the religious leaders of the two Islamic communities -- which will ban sectarian killings -- will delegitimize the violence. Such a compact would deny the killers a political or religious sanctuary while Iraqi and Coalition forces deny them physical shelter. For the longer term, the plan seeks to induce insurgents and militias to lay down their arms by implementing a program to demobilize unauthorized armed groups. It will also review the implementation of the de-Baathification process -- referring those accused of crimes to the judiciary and reconciling with the rest.

* * *
It is understandable that when the American people hear of new U.S. casualties and witness the images of bloodshed from the streets of Baghdad, they conclude that our plans for stemming sectarian violence in Iraq have failed. Yet, implementation of the Baghdad Security Plan has only recently begun. Iraq's national unity government has been in office barely three months, and its ministers of defense and interior have been on the job for less than 80 days. Iraqi ministers are still hiring key staff, and they are learning to work together, under the leadership of a new prime minister. The Committee for National Dialogue and Reconciliation, charged with overseeing implementation of the reconciliation plan, was formed only three weeks ago.

Moreover, as tragic and dangerous as the ongoing violence is to our shared vision of a free and prosperous Iraq, it is not representative of the Iraqi people's sentiments toward one another. In July, a poll by the International Republican Institute, a nonpartisan organization dedicated to democracy promotion, found that 94% of Iraqis said they support a "unity" government representing all sects and ethnic communities, with only 2% opposed. Some 78% of Iraqis opposed Iraq being segregated by religion or ethnicity, with only 13% in favor. Even in Baghdad, where the worst of Iraq's sectarian violence has occurred, 76% of those surveyed opposed ethnic separation, with only 10% favoring it. The challenge of the Baghdad Security Plan and its accompanying effort at national reconciliation is to realize the overwhelming majority of Iraqis desire to live in peace with one another against the violent minority who seek to impose their vision of hatred and oppression.

These programs are already beginning to show positive results. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense reports that the crime rate in Doura has been reduced by 80%. In the Rashid district, Sunni and Shiite political leaders, tribal leaders and imams met and signed an agreement forswearing violence. The tribal leaders went a step further by renouncing protection for tribal members who engage in sectarian violence.

Although it is too early to determine whether these success stories will be replicated throughout the city, this initial progress should give Iraqis, as well as Americans, hope about the future. Contrary to those who portray Iraq as hopelessly mired in ancient ethnic and sectarian feuds, Iraqis themselves want to put the divisions of the past behind them. The Battle of Baghdad will determine the future of Iraq, which will itself go a long way to determining the future of the world's most vital region. Although much difficult work still remains to be done, it is imperative that we give the Iraqis the time and material support necessary to see this plan through, and to win the Battle of Baghdad.

Mr. Khalilzad is the U.S. ambassador to Iraq.

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115628769204442748.html

Copyright 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

BahirJ,
Thank you so much for this striking deep insightful article by Alkazumee..
I might come back to have my comments but for now I would post my reply to Mutergem on similar subject already posted under "Hot subjects".. http://baghdadee.ipbhost.com/index.php?sho...=105&#entry6631


I heard a lot about a possible US retreat to the stratigic goals set by President Bush. I can't comment if these reprots are based on credible resources or information but I can talk from an iraqi prospective.

It is simply rediclus to have such option, not from possibility of happening but from the disastrus unpredictable implications that such assumed change might bring to Iraq , ME and whole world. The situation today is completely different than 1991. The spirit of freedom that was planted by the occupier's calls to Iraqis is a real one.. Some might look to Iraqi frustration to the current situation and might say that they would accept any other solution even another dictator.. However the last four years gave us a very strong messages. When it comes to reality, Iraqis would stand up to their freedom and would not choose other option. The last three voting processes with all threats never stopped them from send that message.

On other hand, there is no power on ground to enforce such option while local communities had already established their own arrangments that is today much more powerfull than the central governemnt. More than that we need not to underestimate the real objection to such move by Kurds and Shia.. Having Iran waiting for such conflict by Americans to these two most powerful groups , one can easily imagine the extend of damage to the American interests in Iraq and the region.. A damage that might go way beyond the implications of the foolish war by Israel generals to fight Hezbollah through demolishing Lebanese democratic government and system.

I have a strong feeling that the temporary marriage between American and Iraqi interests is going to be a "family arranged" strong one that have the call for democracy as it's housing.. No one should even think to hurt that only roof that keep every body safe..

Baathist are making a lot of noise preaching for such retreat , reminding and threatening Iraqis of what would happen to them when such retreat could happen, however I never ran into any Iraqi who even give it any serious thought.. today people are not affriad of Baathist return to power, they more affriad of the disastor that such option might bring to Iraq already wartorn infrastructure

Intersting article by Omer, Iraqi blogger.. I might give a glue on the necessary action need to be taken by the Coalition and Iraqi government..
Have a look to IraqThe model.com


A tale of two tribes, a gang and a militia...
Is it civil war in Iraq or is it not? And if it is, is there a way to stop it and if it's not, is there a way to avert it?
Who's to blame for the sectarian violence and who's escalating it? And what role foreign terror groups like al-Qaeda is playing in this regard? Is it possible that foreign terrorists, with their numbers estimated to be between several hundreds to a few thousands, were/are capable of inflicting so much damage and taking the lead in provoking sectarian strife in a country of 28 millions?

These are some of the questions I hear and read very often these days. It's not easy to find the right answers without taking a much closer look at what's happening on the ground preferably by following the sequence of events in a limited area(s) to get a better understanding of the reality of the situation.

Today I have a true story for you about the sectarian tension in one area of Iraq, although it's only one area but it has a lot in common with other areas and I believe similar stories are taking place in other areas.

The story is taking place in a suburb of Baghdad with mixed tribal and sectarian composition and it's a suburb where we happen to have relatives living over there.
Last week my father and I went there to attend the funeral of an extended family member; everything went almost normal until we wanted to go home. Here's part of the conversation that went between us and one of our hosts:
(O=Omar, F=my father and R=relative)

R: Er, I don't know how to put this, but coming here was a mistake in the first place, I'm glad you made it safe but if you leave now I will be concerned about your safety.

F: Why? What's going on that I'm not aware of?

R: There's been a lot of trouble here recently and traveling at this time of the day can be so dangerous.

F: Ok, I'm listening…

R: It all started several months ago when a bunch of young men from the local tribes began showing strange extreme religious behavior we're not familiar with in this area.
They did not have influence here in the beginning and their apparent action was limited to hate talk against Shia who they refer to as the "enemies" while we coexisted here and lived peacefully with Shia tribes for centuries.
It didn't take long before they translated their rhetoric into violent action, they started to carry out ocassional kidnapping and assassinations against Shia men from neighboring tribes and even attacked Shia neighborhoods deep inside Baghdad after they acquired heavy mortars and katyusha rockets.
At this point we began to realize the true identity of those young men and we began to believe that they became part of al-Qaeda…

The Shia community showed restraint for a while but then their patience ended and the militias started to fire back…at us unfortunately.
The worst escalation happened last week when al-Qaeda snatched a relative of a senior Shia party official near his home, the militia of that party retaliated by kidnapping ten men of a Sunni tribe and there were also incidents of forced displacement on both sides…we don't know if a peaceful settlement can be ever reached.

O: Many other districts suffer from the similar tensions yet people still move around even at some risk, so why can't we go? Or is it that bad?

R: Beginning every afternoon several roadblocks are set on the one street leading to Baghdad and every couple kilometers you'll face a roadblock and gunmen of this or that tribe or sect. They do this to protect their communities and outsiders will be at great risk of being abducted or shot at.

F: Ok, I see that now but who are those troublemakers in the first place and how many are they that you can't stop them from getting you into trouble?

R: About a dozen…they belong to a few of the Sunni tribes and their chief is the son of former big head in Saddam's government.

O: Did you try to talk to them, intimidate them or do anything to dissuade them from keeping up their dangerous game?

R: We tried, first they told us they were protecting us from Shia death squads and they fooled many of people here with that claim but that's bull shit because now they are the reason death squads are after us.

F: That doesn't make any sense! You mean the entire tribe and neighboring ones can't control a dozen of militants?

R: The problem is that these people behead victims and mutilate bodies, they plant bombs and use dirty tricks…the tribe's men are not adapted to dealing with this kind of horrors.
When sheikhs met to arrange for reconciliation the terrorists sent messages telling the sheikhs they were "no longer wanted" and that they were "ripe" for beheading.
By the way this was the 2nd meeting between Sunni and Shia sheikhs, the first one was held immediately after the Samarra bombing, it was a purely local initiative without mediation from the government or clerics…we had been good neighbors for ages! The sheikhs signed a pact of honor that forbid bloodshed and displacement and that what kept sectarian violence away from the area…until those bastards came in.

F: But still, you know who they are and you can ambush them and get rid of them once and for all.

O, interrupting: Have you tried reporting them to the Army or whatever security force working here?

R: Some elders are considering such plans but many people are afraid of reprisal from other al-Qaeda cells in the region to which those guys might be connected. We are farmers and we have families to worry over. And No Omar, we didn't do that and even if we did we don't expect the authorities to respond to report about a cell of 10 militants in a dangerous orchard area when they're busy fighting thousands of them inside Baghdad.
Plus, any military operation here will certainly bring a lot of collateral damage to our homes and farms. Those bad guys have no respect for our lives and would do anything to remain at large.

(I learned later that day that one of the locals had more guts and confidence in the authorities than the rest and did contact the security forces but the man admitted to me that the operator who received his call kind of "terrified" him by the way he spoke and by his irrelevant uncomfortable questions about the identity of the caller while callers have the right to remain anonymous. Anyway, so far no measures have been taken in response to that tip).



Actually the conversation went much longer than this as we realized we had to spend the night at my father's cousin's place so we didn't have much to do but chat about the situation.
The next morning we tried again to go home but the street-safety forecast wasn't reassuring at all, long story short, we were able to return home only on the third day seizing the chance of a gap in the "enemy's" checkpoints.

I'm still keeping an eye on the developments over there and I talk to some relatives frequently over the phone and I encourage them to do something to put an end to this sad situation and expose the perpetrators. Most of them share my attitude but they say they're still studying the mechanism of action, one of them said "we need to revolt against them."

What I see in this case is that the majority is not interested in being involved in this kind of conflict but, at the same time action and reaction from gangs that do not represent the majority are capable of finding a rift among the lines of what normally is a peaceful community.

I truly hope things end in the way I and the majority of my people like, after all, bonds created and maintained over centuries are no doubt stronger than the evil doings and ill wishes of a few mad criminals.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060906/ap_on_...o_rebuild_lh1_1
Nations compete for Lebanon rebuilding


I wish if Iraqi parties are smart enough to make others compete in rebuilding Iraq as they do with Lebanon..

We need to learn much from the Libanies lessons ..
I know that many countries are competing in Iraq, but not to rebuild though. The question is how we can change the dynamics..

I think one way is to have a nother "Hizbullah" donates money to Iraqis who loose their home in the terror attacks.. !!

Today in a big blow to Alqaeda and Sadamist, more than two millions Iraqis marched on foot from different Iraqi cities to Kerbala to celibrate the the 15th of Shaaban. Alqaeda new thug leader timmed his second appearance through Aljazeera on almost same day to Call Sunni Iraqi to kill Shia in addition to his call from Alqaeda cells to kill more American soldiers in the next 15 days..

The 15th of Shaaban is the day when Muslims redirect their pray from Jerosilm to Mecca and also it is the day of the birth of Almahdee , the Survivor..

Al Mehdee had born about twelve centuries ago in Samaraa in same place that Alqaeda exploded six month ago

Shia around the world "more than three hundered millions" celebrat this day, the top of that celebration is to be in Kerbala..
What I didn't understand is that lack of coverage to this massive celebration by the west media. And the lack of linking such brave demonstration by Iraqis to the fight against Terror.. Most of those marching women, men , kids were saying to Aliraqia that they walked hundereds of killometers to show Alqaeda that they are not going to be terrorised byalqaeda and sadamists thugs..

The fight against Alqaeda and other terror groups is not only in the west , it is the iron will by Iraqis who never give up against these thugs dispite all indirect support by western media to alqaeda by calling this fight as SECTERIAN fight!!

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/09/09/...main/index.html

At least CNN came up with some coverage.. It is first time in the last four years that the governemnt military and police ALONE without any shia militia presence to the hard job so succesfully.. No reproted attacks , just three alqaeda thugs got arrested trying to entr Kerbala near Musaeb.. Another incedent where two three pligrims got killed on road to Kerbala near Doura in Baghdad while marchin to kerbala through the most dengrous triangle of death.. On second day , iraqi millitary attacked a cell of qaeda and killed three and captured couple of suspects..
Have a look to the photos.. Look to the faces, are they a scared people ? the whole world need to learn from Iraqis how to stand high agaianst terrorists...


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/5330634.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5329684.stm

BBC story and photos..

I wrote this three days ago.. The Maliki vist to Iran might flag such change of dynamics..

We need to divert the competetion to be a healthy one.. I think the US administration is working on such change by giving the maliki a green light to go for it
Have a look to the CNN coverage..

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/09/12/...iran/index.html

from below..

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...00.html?cnn=yes

Seems to me that the results of the Baghdad's Battel is starting to shine.. There is a growing confidence among Baghdadee's that the year 2007 with the 37 B$ budget is going to make a lot of change, the governemnt steps in applying security is now much more clear.. From more than 30 car explosin a day , now we have about two a day.. From more than 50 kidnapping to almost handful a day.
The aggressive projects by OIL, Ellectrical, interior ministries, the Baghdad micipal authoroties is sounding
More than that , the militia rule in Baghdad is shrinking.. Both sides seems to be tired.. Today the joint move by Alsadrees and Sunni Main slate Altawafuc to demand for dated program for withdraw is a unique political move that we didn't see over the last eighteen months..Though we might don't agree with but we need to encourage such steps.. At the end Iraqis need to step forward and ask for their full sovergnity.. Tjsi is for the benefit of Iraqis and Americans.. It would also put more pressure on all political parties to finalize a stable mid way solutions to their conflicts..

The visit by Maliki and the positive signs by the White house and the visit of Khalil Zada to Suadi Arabai , might flag a day of change of mechanisnm from violant competion to building one..

I don't want to put it so rosy but , as one of my friends who used to live in Baghdad over the last four years " he said I am more confident that we will have normal life by 2007"! He is an engineer that run a contracting firm.. Thsi is first time I ever hear an optimistic view from him

Let us wait ..

I think President Bush put it just right .. That battel of Baghdad is where the the fight with Alqaeda might be the one.. This might be unfortunate news to some Iraqis who feel like caught in the middel while they are not yet prepared. However, I feel so confused by those US politicians who fail to see that link and keep repeating that there is no evidence that Sadam helped out the 9/11.. Such approach is exactly the same that got us into 9/11. An approach that leave the real issue to hung around logical formalities.

If Sadam is related or not, we need to concentrate on the real issue which is simply that Iraq war had set a golden opportunity to fight Alqaeda at a place that they can't just cut and run as they did in Afghanistan.. Again that is some thing that Iraqis mightn't be happy to see happening on their land, but reality is that both Americans and Iraqis had been caught into, being planned to be that way or not..

Today any diverse to this fact by getting us into worthless debate about real intentions would not help our fight. I know some losers have nothing to do but to engage themself in such debates..

We need to go with this battel to the end that is our destiny..A one that we mightn't choose but it is a fact and we can't go around it..

[size=7] I have read this site for more than 2 years and am impressed with Salim, his recent postings show a much clearer view of the situation is visible in both the news and Iraqi commentaries. Yes, the march was on US news, not as much as one would like to hear, but the main commentary from news sources in US was that religious pilgrims were killed on the march. Very little was said about who attacked the pilgrimage. Salim, Americans want Iraq free and democratic. Whatever method works to get there is great. If this new security plan for Baghdad works, it will be amazing how many people come back to the city. I believe there will be a wonderful future in your country if people can settle down and become 'neighbors' again, regardless of who is Allah's favorite group, Sunni or Shia! Freedom is both a tenuous idea and a sometimes bloody prize. Our country has had it's share of dead patriots as yours has now. At such a price I wish more Iraquis would work together. It is a wonderful feeling to hear that your politicians are finally getting their staff together and that Ministries are starting to show some effort at re-building plans and that there is some talk about a firm method to take full control and get America out of this situation that has been so ugly for your people and our military. I know there is talk here is US about how much revenge killings might be done by both Mahdi army and Iraq Army groups. Is there a future where Mahdi army and domestic police forces can be trusted? Is there a future where Wahabbi teachings will be demonstrated to be twisted Muslim tenets? Where those who love Allah, regardless of their teachings can go to a place of worship without fear of strife? This might be a test of what Iraq really wants.
Yes, I look forward to hearing great things of the Iraqi nation. A nation where people have come together to take their country back from terrorists, dictators, occupying Americans, (others occupying also), religious fanaticism and corruption. I look forward to that Iraq and will keep on watching this site for your announcement that the last American has left and the next planeload of westerners are tourists.

I personally think mixing these two very important issues is reflecting a confusion.
Mahdi Aramy and Wahabi teachings can live within new Iraq as far as they disband any illegal actions .
Suadi's are Wahabees , and they are best friends of USA. Alsadrees are critical part of Iraqi popular defence against Alqaeda and their allies in Iraq.

I personally think that mixing Alqaeda with Alsadrees is a plan by Sadamist to put the Sadrees in front of the American tank.. The sadamis knew that theycan't dream of returning back to power with Sadrees touring around.. They want to hit two birds by one stone.
It is well known in Iraq that it is only due to alsadrees , Alqaeda and Sadamist are failing in Baghdad.. You might think I am defending Alsadrees. Indeed I am not and for me , Alsadree radical metality might be the next big threat to prosperous Iraq if they failed to change their radical attitdue. But fighting alsadrees today is just similar to the call to fight the communist in Soviet union during the second world war.. !
We should not give alsadrees excuses, but we should not loss such great opprotunity finding some one that can stand in front the sadamist and qaeda in the streets of baghdad.
Six months ago , the qaeda was expanding through baghdad discrets relying of their allies. Today they are hiding . In Alfadel, centre of Baghdad, Sadamist and qaeda were the only thugs controlling the discret. Today they don't dare even showing their support to Bin Ladin or Sadam. Same in New-Bghdad, Mansoor and Bataween..

Alsadrees are a critical part of Iraqi political process, we need to encourage them.. That what Khalil Zada had done so succesfully as he did with other Sunni radicals.. We don't need to get fooled by new Sadamist politicians that work with terrorist at night and show different face in day , As president Talabani said..

A NT article that might reflect some concerns about the current Maliki's national unity government.. Indeed the author is mirroing the concerns by many Arab writers , specially those who had some concerns with the current Iraqi democratic changes....
The main problem of such writings is that they keep believing that Iraq should be governened by up down government, as the case in other parts of ME in order to solve it's problems. Today Maliki is no more than a way to represent the common will of Iraqis , all Iraqis.. He doesn't have any larger authority than any PM in a democratic governemnt..It is the will of Iraqis that he need to fullfil. Any it is their cost to pay on any wrong descisions.. It is a very long hard process to teach a nation of how to govern them self, and Maliki's governemnt is their choice.

Four months is not something to give judgements on a braod coalition governemnt like the one on Iraq.. Division among parties and within coalitions is a a sign of power in democratic systems, here the writer is considered it as a sign of weakness.. I am not saying things are going definily in the right direction, so as not definitly in the wrong one, as the writer might be suggesting.. Things are going as per the plans , step by step , hard daily small ones. All in the main goal direction.. Such process might be hard to be caught by a news report writers who are mainly looking for big results..

#############################################

Doubts Rise on Iraqi Premier’s Strength
By EDWARD WONG
Published: September 20, 2006
BAGHDAD, Sept. 19 — Senior Iraqi and American officials are beginning to question whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has the political muscle and decisiveness to hold Iraq together as it hovers on the edge of a full civil war.
Four months into his tenure, Mr. Maliki has failed to take aggressive steps to end the country’s sectarian strife because they would alienate fundamentalist Shiite leaders inside his fractious government who have large followings and private armies, senior Iraqi politicians and Western officials say. He is also constrained by the need to woo militant Sunni Arabs connected to the insurgency.

Patience among Iraqis is wearing thin. Many complain that they have seen no improvement in security, the economy or basic services like electricity. Some Sunni Arab neighborhoods seem particularly deprived, fueling distrust of the Shiite-led government.

Concerns about the toughness of the new government seemed reflected in President Bush’s comments when he met Tuesday with Iraq’s president, Jalal Talabani. Mr. Bush said he wanted Iraqis to know “that the United States of America stands with them, so long as the government continues to make the tough choices necessary for peace to prevail.”

Mr. Maliki, a conservative Shiite, took office in May. A senior American diplomat here said the White House still had confidence in him, mainly because “he has articulated goals for Iraq that make sense to us.”

Bush administration officials have repeatedly cautioned that Mr. Maliki needs more time. “This is a national unity government of many, many moving parts,” said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He has got to negotiate as he goes.”

But diplomats who deal with the Bush administration on Iraq issues, and recently departed officials who stay in contact with their colleagues in the government, say the president’s top advisers have a far more pessimistic view.

“The thing you hear the most is that he never makes any decisions,” said a former senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss internal deliberations. “And that drives Bush crazy. He doesn’t take well to anyone who talks about getting something accomplished and then refuses to take the first step.”

American officials here say they do not intend to let Mr. Maliki fail and are helping him in a variety of ways. For example, to bolster Iraqis’ confidence, American generals are spending money on quick reconstruction projects like trash pickup as the military goes through troubled neighborhoods of Baghdad.

The embassy has advisers who work closely with cabinet ministers and has deployed hundreds of Americans to seven provinces to help Iraqi officials build up the government’s political and economic strength. A senior envoy said the biggest effort was simply “Diplomacy 101” — insisting to Iraqi leaders that they resolve their differences.

But increasingly, Iraqi and Western officials say the unity government is one in name only, with the political parties representing different sects and ethnicities constantly at odds, undermining Mr. Maliki’s ability to build consensus.

While the United States has military might and political influence, it must rely on the Iraqi government to reach out to the country’s political and religious leaders. Trying to placate everyone has kept Mr. Maliki from being able to offer amnesty to Sunni insurgents or forcefully disarm Shiite militias, officials say.

The main Shiite bloc itself is deeply divided, depriving the prime minister of crucial support. So he relies on Moktada al-Sadr, the Shiite cleric who commands the powerful militia called the Mahdi Army, for political backing. The militia has been blamed by many Sunni Arabs for sectarian killings.

To ensure that the minority Sunni Arabs remain involved in the government, Mr. Maliki finds himself compromising on issues like cabinet appointments with conservative Sunni parties that have occasional contact with nationalist guerrillas.

“I think he has said good things, but in practice there has been no change,” said Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish legislator. “The security situation is deteriorating and violence is getting worse. He has done nothing against militias. At the same time, the reconciliation dialogue is not moving forward. It doesn’t look good, the prospects for the government.

“I thought he’d be stronger, but he looks weak,” Mr. Othman said. “He feels frustrated because nobody’s cooperating with him.”

The same sentiments are heard in the streets of the capital.
“There’s no security, no job opportunities, no services, nothing at all,” said Muhammad Jabar Abdul Ridha, 18, a construction worker walking through downtown Baghdad on Tuesday afternoon. “This government hasn’t done anything better than the previous one.”

Skip to next paragraph
The Reach of War
Go to Complete Coverage » While some officials in Washington say Mr. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice still insist in staff meetings that Mr. Maliki must be given more time and support, there is a growing sense that he is not about to change his operating style. A former senior official said the big test would be whether Mr. Maliki could confront Mr. Sadr. “If you don’t do that, I don’t know how he can succeed,” the official said.

The prime minister’s aides declined repeated requests for an interview with Mr. Maliki, who emerged as a compromise choice for prime minister during a power struggle last spring in which the White House and Mr. Sadr backed different candidates.

Supporters of Mr. Maliki say it is too soon to judge his tenure. Any unity government requires compromises, they argue. “He’s been in office only a short time, and the size and number of problems from the former regime and former cabinets are huge,” said Sheik Khalid al-Attiya, a deputy speaker of Parliament.

Mr. Maliki has made efforts to quell the Sunni-led insurgency, including reaching out to some Sunni Arab guerrilla groups, Iraqi officials say. That may help widen a rift in the insurgency between Iraqi nationalists and foreign fighters. Sheiks in rebellious Anbar Province announced last Sunday that 25 of 31 tribes in the province were ready to fight against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

Iraqi and American officials who have dealt with Mr. Maliki say he is much more blunt and expressive in meetings than his predecessor as prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who leads Mr. Maliki’s political party. Mr. Maliki is not given to diplomatic formalities and makes his views known, they say. At the same time, he likes to listen to a range of opinion — often at the expense of making decisions, the officials say.

Mr. Maliki acts as if he is backed into a corner these days, said a moderate legislator who recently spent two and a half hours in a private meeting with him.

“You were one of the hawks,” the legislator recalled telling Mr. Maliki. “Now you’re one of the doves.”

“No, I’m still one of the hawks,” the legislator quoted the prime minister as saying. “I just need time.”

Mr. Maliki’s security plan for Baghdad, now the American military’s main effort of the war, intentionally avoids direct confrontation with Mr. Sadr’s militia, despite Iraqi Army generals’ apparent willingness to attack the militia and despite growing violence by rogue militia elements. The plan, begun last month after an initial failed effort in June, involves military sweeps of violent neighborhoods, generally after fighters have already fled.

The murder rate has dropped in some neighborhoods. But the plan’s effectiveness was called into question last week, when more than 165 bodies were found across Baghdad in four days. Shiite militiamen are the main suspects. The Baghdad morgue has said more than 1,500 civilians were killed in August, a 17 percent drop from July but higher than nearly all other months of the war.

Brig. Gen. Dana J. H. Pittard, assigned to help train Iraqi police and army units, said Iraqi Army commanders, who usually have fewer sectarian loyalties than the police, were ready to take on the militias but had not gotten approval from the government.

“There’s this obvious question that the army guys are asking, about ‘When are we going to get rid of the militias?’ ” General Pittard said in an interview while meeting with American military advisers at a base in Taji. “If you talk to the leaders of the Iraqi Army, they’ll say, ‘We need to be given an order to disarm the militias.’ ”

Last month, after American and Iraqi soldiers attacked a militia safe house in the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad, the prime minister denounced the action and promised compensation to families of Iraqis killed or wounded in the assault.

Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, the second-ranking commander in Iraq, said American and Iraqi generals were waiting for Mr. Maliki to find a political solution to the militias.

“How long will that process take?” he said. “I don’t know.”

Mr. Maliki has little obvious leverage over Mr. Sadr, who controls at least 30 seats in Parliament and six ministries, making him one of the most powerful figures in the government. Mr. Sadr has no intention of disbanding the Mahdi Army, because it is now part of the government, said Bahaa al-Aaraji, a senior legislator allied with him.

“They are just volunteers defending their country,” Mr. Aaraji said.

Mr. Maliki is also tiptoeing around other powerful Shiite leaders with militias. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the Parliament’s Shiite bloc, has ignited a political firestorm by calling for the legislature to approve a mechanism to create autonomous regions. Many are opposed, and the move threatens to splinter the government. But rather than rein Mr. Hakim in, Mr. Maliki has kept quiet.

As a centerpiece of his reconciliation project to end the Sunni insurgency, Mr. Maliki wants to forge an amnesty policy that would draw into politics some militant Sunni Arabs and former officials from Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, Iraqi politicians say.

But the proposal has been attacked by hard-line Shiites like Mr. Hakim, who is opposed to leniency for killers of Iraqis, and American politicians outraged at the idea of amnesty for those who have attacked American troops.

That could doom Mr. Maliki’s plan, said Ayad Jamaladin, a moderate Shiite legislator on the government’s reconciliation committee.

“Innocent people don’t need amnesty,” he said. “Guilty people need amnesty.”

Some conservative Sunni leaders are also resisting Mr. Maliki’s efforts. Politicians in Baghdad and tribal sheiks in restive areas insist that he meet a long list of demands that includes releasing all detainees and setting a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops. Many Sunnis also fear that Mr. Maliki is beholden to Iran, and his trip there last week further stirred concerns.

“With whom should we reconcile?” asked Sheik Muhammad Saleh al-Bajari, a spokesman for tribes in Falluja, the Sunni Arab stronghold. “With those who brought the occupier and killed and destroyed the future of this country?”

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/mi...t/20maliki.html

Today, six million students started their first day at school for the new year.. Is this some thing possible under a situation that many media is talking about iraq?

Six million kids, how many schools? how many staff members, books, preparations..

Today another flag day in the iraqis long struggle against terror, of all it's kind.

Last Wednesday, Newsweek-Washington Post's Lally Weymouth interviewed Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in New York. Excerpts:

Q. What happened in your meeting with President Bush?
A. We told him our progress in trade, the economy, training the army . . . and we asked him to provide the Iraqi army with the necessary arms for improving the capacity of the army. We also thanked him for his continuous support of Iraq. Don't forget, we were living under the worst kind of dictatorship.

Q. What did the president say to you?
A. That he will continue to support the Iraqi people and will remain there until we ask him to leave.Reportedly the U.S. government is losing faith in Prime Minister [Nouri al-]Maliki.President Bush assured us that he will support the Maliki government. We assured him that all Iraqi political parties support Maliki. He has done many important things for Iraq. He has ordered all of the militias to stop their activities.But they haven't stopped.They are not operating as before.

Q. When should the U.S. troops leave?
A. In seven provinces, the American army has withdrawn. The Iraqi army is replacing American forces in many cities. We hope that at the end of this year we will be able to control 12 provinces. We will remain in need of the American and coalition forces until we've trained our army and will be able to face terrorism and defeat it.

Q. How long will that be?
A. I think within two years we will be able to train our army and have the capacity to face terrorism. . . . The presence of American forces -- even a symbolic one -- will frighten those who are trying to interfere in our affairs.

Q. Are you talking about Iran?
A. Our prime minister just came back from Iran. He got good promises from Iran on security -- promises that they will never permit any kind of interference in the internal affairs of Iraq.

Q. Do you believe that?
A. Our prime minister tells me he got real and serious promises. Let us see.

Q. What do you think of the popular theory that Iraq should split into three parts?
A. I don't think so. Iraq will not break up into three parts. Iraq will remain united -- we will have a united, federal Iraq. Kurds are struggling for the unity of Iraq -- Sunnis and Shiites, the same. There are differences among the Shiites and Sunnis which must be resolved, but not about the partition of Iraq.So, while many here in the U.S. believe the war is a mess, you believe the opposite.Iraq is not in chaos. There are many provinces that are calm -- where people live in prosperity. . . . I want to assure the American people that Iraqis are now enjoying democracy and human rights and are struggling to secure the country.

Q. Would you welcome U.S. bases in Kurdistan?
A. Yes, they are welcome. Kurdistan wants the Americans to stay. In some places Sunnis want the Americans to stay -- Sunnis think the main danger is coming from Iran now. There is a change in the mind of the Sunnis. The Sunnis are for having good relations with America. The [Shiites] have started to think that.

Q. Will the U.S. put bases in Kurdistan?
A. I think we will be in need of American forces for a long time -- even two military bases to prevent foreign interference. I don't ask to have 100,000 American soldiers -- 10,000 soldiers and two air bases would be enough. This will be [in] the interest of the Iraqi people and of peace in the Middle East.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/09/28/...main/index.html



Seems that Alqaeda chief is replying to those who critisize Bush on the war on Sadam.. Just imagine that if 10% of these criminals had stayed to their original countries and not headed to Iraq, what would happen to those who are critizsizing Bush.. Could they ride their cars and enjoy thier flights?

The above would explain the frustration by Iraqis toward US policy in Iraqi too. Most Iraqis today thought that Americans are using Iraq as "kamasha nar " or oven's hand glove . In other word, using Iraq as a killing zone to terrorist , not caring of those one hundered thousands of Iraqi got cuaght in that fight.! That feeling might explain the last Poll results..

Commenting on the recent Poll results that showed majority of Iraqis are willing to see a sooner withdraw, I think that the growing concerns by Iraqis are going to the extent that such "killing zone scenario by the Americans" theory might be fueled by what Iraqis had noticed over the last two years..
last year, when Interior minister Solagh treid his best to fight Alqaeda and Sadamist, the US military tried it's best to stop or put obsticles in front of him.That is to the extent of raiding some ministery prisons and free those terrorist on bases of human rights and secterian and secert jail accusations.All this was happening while CIA , as admited recently, were running secret jails. This year , when Alsadrees stand in front of the Qaeda and Sadamist and did the job in protecting people, the US military turn back to Sadrees accusing them of igniting secterian war. In both cases, there are growing feeling that yas Americans might want to fight terrorist , but to their timing and game rules and not per the Iraqi rules, Not caring about the huge life loses by Iraqi civilians.

This is might not be the real motive by Americans, it might miss calculation, it might be for benefits of long term goals of estabilishing stable Iraq, but Iraqis want a solution to their continuel killing by these criminals, being part of the American killing zone conspiracy or not!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/29/world/mi...st/29media.html


Have a look to a westren fantazi..



I want to ask the NY reproter, what would happen if you publish an article with insult or accuse any subject of USA without evidence?

Having said that, I don't mean that the press freedom should be pushed down, Indeed it is one of our golden awards that current changes brought to Iraqis. But it should be regulated so not to be used in dirty political race..

Baghdad under curfew over suspected plot
U.S. troops detain Sunni guard believed to be preparing suicide bombings

Khalid Mohammed / AP
Updated: 1:08 p.m. PT Sept 30, 2006
BAGHDAD, Iraq - U.S. troops detained a bodyguard for the leader of Iraq’s biggest Sunni Arab political group on suspicion the guard was preparing suicide bombings, and fearful officials on Saturday enforced a total ban on movement in this city of about seven million people.

The U.S. command said the man was believed to be a member of al-Qaida in Iraq and was preparing a series of suicide attacks inside the heavily fortified Green Zone, home to the Iraqi government, parliament and the U.S. and other western embassies.

Khudhir Farhan was taken into custody Friday at the home of Adnan al-Dulaimi, the head of the largest Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, al-Dulaimi told The Associated Press.


“Credible intelligence indicates the individual, a member of Dr. Dulaimi’s personal security detachment, and seven members of the detained individual’s cell were in the final stages of launching a series of (car bomb) attacks inside the International Zone, possibly involving suicide vests,” the U.S. military said in a statement without identifying the man by name.

He is suspected of having links to a car bomb network operating in the southern area of Baghdad, the military said.

Immediately after the arrest Friday afternoon, al-Dulaimi denied that the guard had terrorist links. But when contacted by the AP on Saturday he said: “That individual joined my residence as a guard no more than a month ago, therefore I haven’t got complete data about his background.”

“Anyhow, they are only suspicions about his involvement, which have not been proved,” al-Dulaimi said.

Sunni leader was cooperative
The U.S. military said al-Dulaimi cooperated with soldiers when they showed up to apprehend the guard.

“This operation in no way implies Dr. al-Dulaimi was associated with any illegal activity; he was not the target in this operation,” the U.S. command said in a statement.

Following the Friday raid on al-Dulaimi’s house, the Iraqi government ordered a complete lockdown inside Baghdad — banning all pedestrian and vehicular traffic until Sunday morning. Such bans have been imposed in the past following fears that car or suicide bombs were planned.

The curfew was put into place on the advice of U.S. forces, Interior Ministry spokesman Brig. Abdul-Kaim Khalaf told the AP.

“They have information terrorists entered Baghdad,” Khalaf said. “The prime minister agreed to (the curfew) to give our security forces the freedom of movement to raid certain places.”

Though the capital was quiet because of the curfew, six people were killed in scattered violence around the country, including an Iraqi working as an interpreter for the U.S. military in an area about 60 miles south of Baghdad, authorities said.

Aliraqia TV is planning to submit first court claim against the perliment member Mr. Dainee. He was accused of threatening the TV station reporters " Your concrete barcades can't protect you , we can reach you".. He is a former Sadam officer from Diala province with a very suspecious ties to Qaeda and Sadamist terrorists.. The Iraqi laws mgiht go up to seven years in jail for those who threaten others. His statement was vidue taped and broadcasted on the station broadcast..

Yesterday, in another statement, PM Aldainee was quoted " The american plan is to go with a military governemnt" he was proud of his special relations with some American military officers in Diala who used to pay private visits to his big ranch in Diala..!

Iraq: We'll get al Qaeda leader, dead or alive
POSTED: 2:52 p.m. EDT, October 1, 2006


http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/10/01/...main/index.html

Have a look to the clip of the Mesry "the Egyptian" charging a car with explosives.. Look to his face, what type of feelings one can get out!

from

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...6100201291.html

A big blow to Arab anti democracy media who kept propaganda that Rice is coming to consult with arab rulers new startegy for Iraq.. Yesterday on Alrabia bunch of arab state propagadists were analysing this new startegy to be a prove of the full fail of American strategy of democritizing ME.
I would like to see their ugly face today..!

I think a visit by Rice to Iraq would give a big push to Almaliki governemnt who was under a very battacking compaign by Sadamists and arab rulers media, claiming that Almaliki is not doing enough .. Some thing they already copied from their allies in the US media.. I don't want to elaborate more on this.. It is so discusting to see the American political race giving ecourging signals to those criminals!

..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15124922/

Iraqi governemnt military spoke's man , Prig. Almousawee, denied today such news by what called a sadamist propagandists. It seems Iraqi governemnt spokes men job these days are just to deny those manipulated news. I dare the msn would issue his announcement on same news page..



The writer here is mixing another incident. The above prig is the fifth prigade who is working in North east, the brigade responsible for Alaamel discret , which located in west Sunni of baghdad, is the eith brigade. It is tru that it's head was suspended while an investigation is running on why not responding fast. Nothing to to do the first one that the Sadimist web sites had anoounced suspention.

Thanks Dr. Rice.. Thought she might not have the chance to read this but at least she did the right thing at right time.. we need to stand firm behind Almaliki in his sincere and strong will, though seems gradual, to push I raq in the right direction. Two days ago, according to leaked information, he showed a non usuall face to all political parties threatening them that he has no choice but to go to Iraqi people showing them what he knows about each party and it's links to what is going on . He was quoted to say that he no loger able to sustain such indirence toward the escalated violance in Baghad and othe places.

Dr. Rice speaches went in that direction in pushing different parties saying that them that time run thin.
Almaliki quiet work has finaly come to some results, the Alanbar Provice Shiekhs who already visited him last week , are planning for a wide confrence in Baghdad on saterday, Almaliki said that what ever these shiekhs will come up with a decisions and visions , he will go for. this is a big confrontation to Islamic party who is in conflict with these shiekhs . Islamic party is in the government coalition and might not feel comfort seeing these tribal leaders taking their people destinay in their hands to get the province rid of those qeada cells . they already started their alnbar wakeup " Sahwa al anbar", a lot of results are reported. The best was what I read yesterday on aljazera by a former Sadamist writer who went to say " these shiekhs are much worse than others and the people of Anbar will kill them"!!

The Sunday Times - World





The Sunday Times October 08, 2006


America ponders cutting Iraq in three
Sarah Baxter, Washington



AN independent commission set up by Congress with the approval of President George W Bush may recommend carving up Iraq into three highly autonomous regions, according to well informed sources.
The Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by James Baker, the former US secretary of state, is preparing to report after next month’s congressional elections amid signs that sectarian violence and attacks on coalition forces are spiralling out of control. The conflict is claiming the lives of 100 civilians a day and bombings have reached record levels.



The Baker commission has grown increasingly interested in the idea of splitting the Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurdish regions of Iraq as the only alternative to what Baker calls “cutting and running” or “staying the course”.

“The Kurds already effectively have their own area,” said a source close to the group. “The federalisation of Iraq is going to take place one way or another. The challenge for the Iraqis is how to work that through.”

The commission is considered to represent a last chance for fresh thinking on Iraq, where mass kidnappings are increasing and even the police are suspected of being responsible for a growing number of atrocities.

Baker, 76, an old Bush family friend who was secretary of state during the first Gulf war in 1991, said last week that he met the president frequently to discuss “policy and personnel”.

His group will not advise “partition”, but is believed to favour a division of the country that will devolve power and security to the regions, leaving a skeletal national government in Baghdad in charge of foreign affairs, border protection and the distribution of oil revenue.

The Iraqi government will be encouraged to hold a constitutional conference paving the way for greater devolution. Iran and Syria will be urged to back a regional settlement that could be brokered at an international conference.

Baker, a leading exponent of shuttle diplomacy, has already met representatives of the Syrian government and is planning to see the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in New York. “My view is you don’t just talk to your friends,” he said last week. “You need to talk to your enemies in order to move forward diplomatically towards peace.”

His group has yet to reach a final conclusion, but there is a growing consensus that America can neither pour more soldiers into Iraq nor suffer mounting casualties without any sign of progress. It is thought to support embedding more high-quality American military advisers in the Iraqi security forces rather than maintaining high troop levels in the country indefinitely.

Frustrated by the failure of a recent so-called “battle of Baghdad” to stem violence in the capital, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to Iraq, said last week that the unity government of Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, had only two months left to get a grip. Rumours abound that the much-admired ambassador could depart by Christmas.

Khalilzad’s warning was reinforced by John Warner, Republican chairman of the Senate armed services committee, on his return from a visit to Baghdad. “In two to three months’ time, if this thing hasn’t come to fruition and this government (is not) able to function, I think it’s a responsibility of our government internally to determine: is there a change of course we should take?” Warner said.

Bush and Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, have resisted the break-up of Iraq on the grounds that it could lead to more violence, but are thought to be reconsidering. “They have finally noticed that the country is being partitioned by civil war and ethnic cleansing is already a daily event,” said Leslie Gelb, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Gelb is the co-author with Senator Joseph Biden, a leading Democrat, of a plan to divide Iraq. “There was almost no support for our idea until very recently, when all the other ideas being advocated failed,” Gelb said.

In Baghdad last week Rice indicated that time was running out for the Iraqi government to resolve the division of oil wealth and changes to the constitution.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2393750,00.html

The killing of the brother of the Iraqi vice preseden, a sunni arab, would bring two dimentions

It comes just one day after the Muslim scholar association warning to the sunni arab Islamic party of supporting the current political process. This the thrird member of Dr. tariq alahshimee family after the killing of his sister and other brother.

This should ring bells at two sides. the shia and sunni
On the Shia parties who keep claiming that the islamic party is another face of terrorists campaign. The terrorist don't differenciat.. Today Alhashimee is recording a record of plotician family that loss highest number of members.
On the sunni side, to seriously consider the threat odf these sadamists and qaeda criminals, they have no limit and they don't care if it is a sunni or shia, they need to stand up with their other brothers in iraq to have Iraq wipe out the terror. They need not to keep covering the asses of the criminals by keep putting obsticles in face of Iraqi governemnt war against them



I don't want to comment on Baker's recommendation
I simply don't buy it

Iraq is for Iraqis and they the only who decide what type of system is most suitable for them..The constitution already approves the federal system and not the confedral. I don't think baker's committe knows Iraq better than Iraqis..

The statistics by an American school about those Iraqis killed by terrorists after the fall of Sadam is interesting , not for it's unrealistic estimation though.
The question is why such school can go in so unprofessional way to announce such numbers that would not be accepted on any conservative measure , at least by ten folds?

There are two possibilities, the first is the political competition in USA these days .Such numbers would impact the war cause.
The other is that it is trying to over estimate casualties of Iraqis to propaganda for a very cruel image of those terrorists who are killing Iraqis every day..

Both ways, I felt so disgusted witnessing Iraqi blood to be part of a dirty political race .. What a shameful conduct!

The White house spokesman confirmed today that there is no such thing as a dead line for Maliki to stabalize the country. Though thsi confirmation was late, but it is still very valuable. We need to support Maliki governement as the only possible to get out of current crises.. Yestrday Alawee denounced the claims that there are plans by him fo a military take over. he luaghted at such claims saying that there is no Army to be able to do such thing. He accused a neighboring country for propaganda for such. he might be refering to Iran!

I think Iraqis and maliki governement had succeded to drop any such possibility of retreat to democracy. We need to work so ahrd to get this message clear to all parties in iraq.. So not to keep histating assuming that the Bush iron support can be intimidated!!

Today Prsident Bush confirmed his rejection to any such plan of dividing Iraq in three autonomos confidrate systems.. He said that such plan would push Sunni to the corner.

http://www.sotaliraq.com/iraqi-news/nieuws.php?id=36212

In Arabic, a leaked document dated sep 2nd 2006, that Sadam's underground party is issueing orderds for their secert cells " Thicar operations" to conduct mass assasinations to relatives of more than 60 Iraqi political leaders and activists from Kurd, Arab Sunni and Arab Shia backgrounds, The order to include all those of second and third level "Cousins"..

Very chilling but just to high light to level of criminal acts these thugs would go for.. Last two weeks, the brother of Sunni Arab Vice president Alhashimi was killed in the Sunni neighborhood of Al Adamaia. Also the whole family of the sister of the Judge Aluraibi were attacked, killing his brother in law and nephue and critically injuring his sister.

Todat, the Genral Kaisy denied the reports by th financial times that the US governemnt is putting pressure on the Iraqi governement to issue an amnisty toward the terrirsts who killed Iraqis and Americans. he said that the iraqis know better what is good for the.
It seems that the Iraqi government officials and Americans too are in need to follow on all these yellow reprts .. One interesting remark here. The announcement by US goverment that there is no such thing as to put a time limit for maliki, was recieved with very cold and low profile coverage by the Arab governemnt media such as Qatar Aljazera and Suadi Arabia. Same media showed a lot of interest in the original reports though.. Seems that those who support terror in Iraq are not happy with such follow up by the Americans.. Something that would tell us what is good in fighting Terror..Is n't it?

Kuwaitee Alqabas newspaper, today, came up with a very strange report that is relying on a credible undisclosed source. It claims that US is seriously thinking of giving the radical Moqtada Alsader a special support and recognition if he comes with the US policy in Iraq. The newspaper went to base this on the fact that he is the most powerful political leader in Baghdad and the south. This report is coming after another report by some western media that Baker report is calling for asking help of Syria and Iran in stabilizing Iraq. Some thing that Altalabani agreed with yesterday.

It is very clear that the Kuwaiti newspaper is trying either to discredit the Shia religious radical or at least to send a warning to it's fellow Sunni Arab that a change in the dynamics is possible and they need to be more realistic in their demands and acts. I don't know what is the motives but it came to my mind a crazy idea. Why not?

From my follow up , these Sadrees , just like any other political party in Iraq, are working for the interest of those whom it represents. I know that the popularity of Alsader had stemmed from the fact that those "insiders" had been into frustration seeing those "out siders" got most of the pie after the fall of Sadam, at a time they were the one who encountered his daily barbaric acts.

I am here not to call for any such move by the US government, what I am highlighting is :

1-Today if there is any reason that makes US comfort that Iraq would never fall into the hands of Qaeda and Sadamists, as for example the case in Suadi or Afghanistan, is because of the Alsadrees. No any other power on ground could stop the bastered from feeling safe other than Alsadrees.
2-Alsadrees are part of the current political process and had played a reasonable role in supporting the government.
3- Alsadrees represent those who are most beneficiary from the American war on Sadam. And this need to be emphasized to both sides.
4-Most of the Alsadrees, though fanatic radicals, are indeed very poor who try to improve their chances and opportunities after decades of declining.

All the above might be put in some way of a deal, not as the one that the Kuwaiti newspaper is claiming but in a new paradigm of respect and encourage to play a more positive rule..

There are a lot of reports in the Arab media about Baker's report.. Some is preaching for Baathist come back!
The funny thing is that most of these Arab radicles who are calling for return of the old regime of dictatorship are putting so much faith in the Americans to do the job.. What job?

The best is what the reprot below quoted what is called a sunni source.. It is an indirect refrence to a baathist factionist.. Alawee last week accused Iran of spreading such rumers of Military coup, he said what Army? and how.. Iraq today is not like any other thrird world country that you can do such thing by throughing away the governemnt. Almaliki yesterday loughted at such proposed plans, he said we didn't get here through a tank or gun, we came here by Iraqi will.
As for the division of Iraq into three confedrets :as I said before, this might be the dream of Qaeda and some ME governemnts, but Iraqis will not accept it. They already chose the Fedral system that is not based on race or faction and they are working hard on that project.. President Bush confirmation to go that way was a clear message to all those who try to play the wrong cards

The withdrew it self is a recipie of civil war between factions racing for grapping power.. i think Americans are the last one to accept such situation..

http://washingtontimes.com/world/20061019-120324-9846r.htm

Iraq is a mess and I don't need the atrocious Arabic, our liberal media or the moron Democrats to tell me this. (so whats new)

Sure, there is a Sunni led insurgency of Saddamist, along with the Islamic terrorist groups like al-Qaeda being pounded daily, and led more everyday by the Iraqi Army (IA) and the uncorrupted parts of the Iraqi Police (IP) with US troops and MNF’s backing them up, (mostly US) BUT: It’s been long enough for the Prime Minister of Iraq to stop and take out Sadr and his thugs, along with ANY other NONE IRAQ GOVERNMENT militia’s. As each day passes without anything happening on this, the current crop of elected Iraqi officials seem more in it for themselves or their factional interest, than for Iraq.

Trying to reconcile these non Iraq government militias and insurgency into being good citizens as the current Prime Minister thinks is an exercise in futility. The Saddamist insurgency can either be defeated or killed, but the Islamic terror groups must be killed or captured. Preferably Killed

No Iraqi can honestly say the Sadr Brigade organization is not behind the Shiite Death squads killing Sunni’s at random and other criminal enterprises. He is a murdering criminal and a thug. Sadr’s militia and other Shi’ite’s retaliating tit for tat indiscriminately on any Sunni has turned most non Saddamist and moderate Sunni unhelpful to the new Iraq government and probably aiding the insurgency strictly for surviving another day. Sadr's militia has to go!

For the sake of Iraq, I hope Bush and our General’s start demanding more from the Iraqi leaders, because right now we (the USA and coalition MFN) are taking it in the ass daily from Sadr and other allied Muslim Groups of his ilk. It’s a vicious cycle.

If Bush doesn't take some very serious actions against Sadr and his kind by December (after our elections) I will no longer support this mess. You can either fight to win or try to please everyone by bowing down to thugs like Sadr. Seems we've chosen the later by allowing the Iraqi Government take its lead in their faulty reconciliation plan. badWord, the Democrats could do that by just leaving.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Here’s what an Iraqi Blogger has to say:

…….. let’s take a look at some of the recent bigger stories. First there were the clashes in Diwaniya which can be seen as relatively good news since the operations led to the arrest of a vicious criminal who ordered the slaughter of a dozen Iraqi soldiers who ran out of ammunition during previous clashes back in August.

The funny thing is that Sadrists say it was not them who clashed with the raiding force and insist it was the residents of Diwaniya who did! Yeah sure, civilian residents organized 10 RPG teams out of the blue to attack that Abrams tank and defend the militia lieutenant! Ironically even the rival Badr leader Hadi al-Amiri insists it wasn't the Mehdi militia.

The IA and US army say it was Sadr's militia, the international media says so too and people in Iraq and especially in Diwanaiya know that too…Do they want us to buy their claims that such organized and heavily armed groups can find a place and act independently against the government and the MNF in provinces where the Sadrists and other politico-religious factions virtually control everything?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My anger right now is mostly directed at Maliki and his corrupt government letting thousands die because they are too scared to stand up to the evil in Iraq. Where are all the moderate Muslims in Iraq? Where are the marches against Sadr, or against the weak government? I keep hearing excuses like "the Iraqi army’s too weak to fight the Sadr army" that’s BS! How hard is it to walk up to these guys and arrest them? Can the Iraqi soldiers fire a gun? If they can't, I'm sure the US army can!

Time to end the games and start shooting these a-holes! I think a lot of Americans are in a sour mood because they see nothing new.... only the same old crap, letting the enemy and incompetent Iraqi officials run the circus. That must change now!

And if anyone thinks we can deal with Iran without solving Iraq's problems first they are sorely mistaken. If we even touch their nuke sites now with one small bomb they will immediately start a huge gorilla war in Iraq making Vietnam look like a walk in a park. Does anyone honestly think Bush is going to have our soldiers in an Iraq-Iran Muslim holy war costing an ungodly number of deaths and probably the resurrection of the draft? …..No way!

So it would then leave us stuck with TWO Jihadist countries who scared America off.

Well, that won't work at all!

If anyone wants that to happen, then elect Democrats in November. Bush needs to turn it up and we need to turn the Democrats down.

NOTE
some of the above taken from others comment on another website who I agreed with
(wish I had kept their addy's for credit)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061021/ap_on_...q_us_insurgents
Is the above related to what Salim questioned about , commenting about the possible common interests between US and Alsadrees..? .

Quess what ? we have to many DEMOCRATS IN OUR STATE DEPARTMENT (above example) who would like nothing better than to cut and run. Guys like the above 'diplomat' are as we say in Texas ......all HAT no CATTLE !!!!

October 21, 2006

Mahdi Army, Iraqi Police Clash in Suwayra

Sadr's attacks coincide with al-Qaeda bombing, media campaigns and 'marches' in western Iraq. Shades of the Fall of 2004...

The Iraqi Army in Amara. (check the links underlined below)

One day after the Mahdi Army attacked police stations in Amara and were beaten back by Iraqi Army and police units, Sadr's militia struck again in the town of Suwayra, a town about 30 miles south of Baghdad. AFP reports "some 150 Mahdi Army militiamen armed with AK-47 assault rifles attacked a police station in the Tigris town... eight gunmen died and two civilians were wounded." Sadr's claims that there are elements of his militia that are 'rogue' look less and less credible as each day passes.

The Mahdi Army attempts to justify the attack against the Iraqi Police because of a purported U.S. raid on Sadr's office in the city. "A spokesman for Sadr's office in Suwayra said the attack on the police station was a response to an earlier raid by U.S. military forces, backed by helicopters, on a Sadr office. Hamid al-Zargani said the U.S. raid killed six people," according to AFP.

The Mahdi Army, unable or unwilling to strike back at U.S. forces, hits the police forces of the legitimate government of Iraq, a government which their leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, purportedly supports. Also note that U.S. security forces are operating in Iraq under the auspices of the United Nations and at the behest of the Iraqi government.

The situation in Iraq today resembles that of the fall of 2004, when Sadr conducted his second uprising in Najaf just as al-Qaeda in Iraq was in control of Fallujah. It is believed an informal alliance existed between Sadr and al-Qaeda as each struck at American and the nascent Iraqi government forces. Now, Sadr's forces are probing Iraqi police and Army units in the southern Shiite regions, as al-Qaeda in Iraq is vying for control of Ramadi and Baghdad is the focal point of sectarian violence.

Sadr's Mahdi Army attacks in Suwayra and Amara, coupled with a protest in Baghdad of the arrest of Sheikh Mazen Al Saedi, occurred just as al-Qaeda in Iraq declares a rump Sunni State and announces the creation of the "Mutayibeen Coalition," a union of six Anbar tribes and three small insurgent groups. Al-Qaeda's media campaign was in overdrive the past week. The “Ministry of Information in the Islamic State of Iraq” issued a press release on the Friday bombings in Baghdad. Al-Qaeda conducted mini-marches in Haditha, Haqlaniyah, Anah and Bani Daher on Friday. Note that a 15 minute march through a town does not demonstrate any degree of control, and al-Qaeda does not administrative control over territory in Anbar, with the possible exception of a few neighborhoods in Ramadi. According to an intelligence source, the al-Qaeda demonstrators took heavy casualties after their march in Ramadi.

Sadr and al-Qaeda are tuned into the U.S. political cycles, and are well aware of the results of dramatic announcements of Islamic States, increases in sectarian violence, suicide campaigns and attacks on Iraqi police and Army units have on the American electorate and the political elite. The questions are: will the Coalition and Iraqi government take on Sadr, secure Baghdad and clear Ramadi, just as was done in Fallujah after the 2004 Presidential election? Does the U.S. and Iraqi governments have the political will and resources to get the job done?

By Bill Roggio | Link | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Having Alqaeda and Sadder in one boat is critically dangerous to Iraq, ME and US. It is just like Israelis trying their best to mix Qaeda with Hezbollah while Qaeda wahabees had asked their followers, at their Mosques preaching and Fatwa, to be “haram” blasphemy to pray for Hezbollah.
It is well understood why the Israelis are mixing papers , similarly Baathists calling for the above , but to have some American risking US interests by widening the war to go on two fronts at a time we still struggling with the first. That I failed to understand...

One might say that both of them are putting an Islamic state as a goal. If this is the reason, then USA should put Saudi and Iran on same boat too... The stand toward the backward system, that doesn't allow women to drive a car, of Wahabees Saudi is excused while the theocratic backward System, that constitute women candidacy/voting and has the ME biggest number of female taxi drivers, of Shia Iran is not. I fully understand that inconsistancy to be a pure political and I am not arguing it... What I want to reach is that such a mix of Sadder and Qaeda is a pure political too.

Let me explain: Sadamists who lost their possible opportunities are trying to reach through a completely different way... Their strategy is simply going on two fronts. The first is with help of Arab powerful media to creat a comon conception that violence in Iraq is simply a conduct of two bad guys, Qaeda against Shia and Saderees against Sunni. So killing them both is the magic solution that would please every body. While killing Qaeda and disbanding its network is a work in progress by Iraqi and US government, they think that only competitor after the American possible withdraw is Saddrees. They also think that ONLY with the American army presence it is possible to execute the second more difficult JOB. They decided to drop down demands of immediate withdraw of US troops asking Americans to first fix the situation then leave the country to their merciful hands! That might explain why Baathists friends “some Democrats” are easying their pushing on the withdraw these days and why the American liberal media are not using American casualties as prime news too!! It might also explain why the later media is talking about Bush pushing and setting time limit on Almaliki to crack down Almehdi Army. Some thing that both Iraqi and American governemnt officially denied..

The other Sadamists tactic is to work hard to reach the Americans through some Arab and American brokers that they are still ready to do all requested services as they always did in the past, if they get another chance...

This might be a possible solution for Americans and for Iraq too; the question is if this is a realistic one...
I personally don’t think so.

Qaeda base in Iraq is nothing but foreigners who got a safe heaven within those Arab Sunni communities that are strongly attached to Sadamists intelligence and militia "Former republican guard". It might be possible two years ago to draw lines between the two but not now, specially after the capture of Sadam and the flee of Sadam's top aids with their deep pockets full of Iraq stolen money. Leaving the base to be recruited by Al zarqawee with all huge finance from Qaeda networks in the Gulf that made Alzawahree to beg Alzaqawee for some pocket money. Today same former Sadamist agent might be working for both. So talking about easy way to discriminate “who is who " would be a very complicated non guaranteed process

Some American reportes/ analysists being convinced of such possibility are trying to help the Baathists plan by concentrating on Alsaderes and Almehdi Army as the real core issue in Iraq security. It would be the case if the Sadrees choose to turn over the political process and to try to play a similar rule that Hezbollah is doing by enforcing radicalizing the country... Putting it as priority today is flagging many serious questions that might uncover the real motives behind such stupid calls.
Alsadrees are part of the political process and Muqtada , with great help of Chalabi, are playing a constructive rule in Iraq new dynamics, so pushing them to the other corner seems to be not in benefits of Iraq or the Americans.. Encouraging them to go in the right direction might be a more proactive and healthy one, having in mind that the ONLY force on ground today who is really scaring Qaeda and their Sadimist allies is Almehdi Arm. That is not to shy away from actions by those criminal operatives who claim them self as Almehdi Militia members. No one for sure can prove if they are doing it by direct orders from their leaders or just doing it as unjustified retaliations or even paid by those who work for civil war. We know for sure that Qaeda and Sadamists are doing all the mass killing because their leaders are proud to admit their actions. But with Alsader, he used to be known as a pro Sunni by many Shia till the last Samurra tomb explosions. Muqtada had issued strict religious announcements of condemning any acts to kill people on base of faction or retaliation, he put this as work of Satan "He is pointing to the Israelis!!"...

On the other hand, Most Iraqi Shia today , though exteremly hating the Sader radical attitude, are in full sympathy with his Mehdi army because they found it the ONLY force to protect them from Qaeda and Sadamists criminal bands. Just have a look to what had happened in Balad last week when some Sadamist had recruited 18 poor young shia farmers "15-18 years old" to his neighboring Tholoia town . nothing but to slaughter them all. In couple of hours, the Mehdi arm