Alsader up rise

[salim]

Over the last two days I was on the phone with many different iraqis inside and out side iraq talking about the sudden uprise of Mouqtada Alsader group..Here below a briefing :

 

1- Surprisingly , most Shia Iraqis were not showing any sympathy to the uprising .. They expressed their worry that this comes as a non wise move by Muoqtada Alasader while Iraqis are preparing them selves for the transition of power in June.

2- Some expressed their concern that the Americans are not considering the real issue behind the movement of the Alsader's followers. Most of them are from the very poor non-employed class.. Those who were under saddam's most suppression..They feel very upset seeing all the old Army's officers and security police, sitting at home getting very good retirement salaries..while these poor have no income to live.

 

3- Others also pointed that Alsader is a real power inside Iraq with a lot of supporters.. Leaving his group a lone and politically isolated would encourage all those anti Iraqi freedom to pentrate within the group. There is a real need to get Alsader's group on board especially on the July 1st transition. It is not as a reward but that is to assure that this important group has it's say on Iraqi affairs..

 

4-Others claimed that the current up rise was deliberate by alsader in order to lessen the pressure on Falouja.. They said that there is a big Quaeda fish over there, and Alsader is following some recommendations from Iranians.. As the Iranian's don't want this pacify of Falouja to happen so soon, that is in relation to their agenda's of keeping the pressure on the Americans in Iraq.

 

5- Another opinion was that this was caused by the Americans to shift the focus from what is happening in Falouja.. Where the real fight is carried over.. Sunni's in Iraqi are more interested in seeing Shia confronting the Americans. This might give them a better say on the future of Iraq and later to shift the democratic process.

With such shift of focus, they are less interested about what is happening in Flaouja..

 

 

6- Most Shia are with the call of Alsystani to forbid voilance, they are greatly admire his call to not repond on any coallition fire even when they get under .. The most important is to have the transition process go on peacifully and smooth.

 

The amazing thing is, the extend of change that the last year had on Iraqis.. Most Iraqis are against any one who might stop the democratic order-of law state..!

[Guest من يحمي الشيعه؟]

من يحمي الشيعه؟

 

بعد ان صاغ العم (ابوناجي) لبنه دستور العراق المؤقت الدائم!! بالاشتراك مع العم (بوش) ليقره مجلس الحكم اللاانتقالي بعد ان ضمن كل طرف مصلحته في ذلك الدستور , ظهر للسطح تذمر الشارع العراقي وخصوصا (الشيعي) من ذلك الدستور الذي لم يتوقع ان يكون موقف من يمثله من الشيعه هناك ان يكون بهذا الشكل من الضعف , بحيث يمكن تشبيهه كثره اعضاءه في المجلس ككثره دول العرب تجاه اسرائيل (الاكراد) الذين ضمنوا كل شيئ لصالحهم بالرغم من قلتهم في ذلك المجلس بدعوى انهم يريدون (حمايه انفسهم) من الاغلبيه العربيه التي لطالما عانوا منها!!.

مما لاشك فيه ان المخطط اكبر بكثير من قدرات هذا الشاب المغامر الذي لم يذكر التاريخ له منقبه في السياسه او العلم لكنه يحاول ان يجد لنفسه موطأ قدم في مجلس استبعده تماما لانه غير مرغوب به لقله حيلته السياسيه من ناحيه او ربما لاستغلاله (مطيه) لعبور مرحله من مراحل تنفيذ ذلك المخطط .

ومما لا شك فيه ايضا ان غالبيه اتباع هذا الشاب هم من ذوي الثقافه المحدوده ان لم تكن معدمه , وكل ما يمتلكونه هو حبهم لمذهبهم الذي وجدوه في ابيه (رحمه الله) لينتقل اليه وراثه !! دون اي جهد منه في بناء ذلك المذهب او الارتقاء به الى مستوى الحدث .

اما القله القليله الباقيه فهي فئه مثقفه ولها باع طويل في النضال ضد الطاغيه الا انها وجدت نفسها خارج الملعب كما هو حال شيعه العراق الاخرون وهذا ما دعاها للتمحور مع (الزعيم الشاب) املا في نيل بعض (الكعكه) اذا ما حصل قائدهم على بعض منها مستقبلا .

ومما لاشك فيه ايضا ان استغلت ايران هذه الورقه حمايه لمصالحها في المنطقه لتدعمه بشتى الوسائل ليكون (عالم الدين) مقتدى الصدر!! كما تصفه فضائيه (العالم) او الزعيم الشاب قائد التيار الصدري كما تصفه فضائيات العهر العربي (الجزيره والعربيه) لينفخوا به كما نفخت ذات يوم ابواق الاعلام الامريكي القائد الجرذ ليكون البطل الذي يخشى منه !!!! ليستمر في نهجه الاخرق المستند على روح النصر والروح القتاليه و و و ولتكون النتيجه هي مما نحن به الان .

وهكذا ضاع دم الشيعه ما بين القبائل .

فقبيله مجلس الحكم لا تستطيع التراجع عما اتفقت به مع قوات التحالف (لان وعد الحر دين)!

والزعيم الشاب يريد من الفضائيات ان تنقل اخباره باستمرار كما يصرح هو بنفسه او كما يصرح به تابعيه .

والشيعي المسكين لايدري اين ستقذف به الاعصار , فصدام الذي انهكهم ذبحا وتقتيلا ومقابر جاء الان دور من لا يابه بهم ليقذفهم في انتفاضات وسيل جديد من الدماء .

انها دوره جديده من التغييب والتقتيل لهذه الطائفه المغبون حقها على مر العصور.

اننا الان احوج ما نكون الى الاصغاء لصوت التعقل والتفكير الطويل قبل الاقدام على مغامره اخرى تضاف الى سلسله مغامرات القائد المنصور بالله التي اهلكت الحرث والنسل .

كما ندعو الله ان يكف عنا شر شيعه من يريد بنا سوءا في ايران و لبنان وندعوهم متوسلين ان يهتموا اكثر في شأنهم الذي يعانون منه وان كان لهم من الشجاعه ما يكفي فليكونوا في صدر تلك المواجهه لا ان يدفعوا صدر العراق اليها.

ولله المشتكى

 

بهلول الحكيم

Bahlol58@hotmail.com

[Guest Guest_salim]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...00.html?cnn=yes

 

Interesting article.. Not accurate in it's evaluation to the real player in Iraq today.. The call of Systani almost freezed the up rise.. However, the writer might be right in his call for considering the Alsader important role in new Iraq..

 

On thing to add,

Unlike Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the supreme spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites, Moqtada has only minor clerical status. But he has political muscle and influence derived from the heroic reputation of his forebears. Also unlike Sistani, Moqtada is a fervent advocate of the Khomeinist doctrine of "velayat al-faqi," or political rule by the clergy. His objective: to make himself the primary player in Iraqi politics.

 

Indeed this is working against Alsader, most Iraqi Shia are against "velyat al-faqi" and that is why most of political parties are steering them selves away from Sader.

[josparke]

American media has been pretty alarmist in the headlines "Anarchy!" and "Uprising!" over all of it... Do you guys think the Iranians are that much behind it all?

[salim]

Do you guys think the Iranians are that much behind it all?

 

Personally I feel that Alsader group have their agendas and it would be kind of simplistic view of neiling all what had happened to the Iranians..

First it came after the Shia protest against the Veto item in the transit law. Then the increasing suspecious feeling about the real intention of Americans that point to some under cover deals that the Americans might doing with some Sunni's as a compromise for stopping their "resistance"..

Adding to this, the most imporatnt issue of poor living condition of Iraqi's in those neighborhoods that Alsader kept strong hold in.

 

As for any Inranian link.. Though it might be possible, but I personally doubt it.. Based on the great support that Iranians are putting both on the economic and political sides to the Iraqi ecomy and the GC.

[Airedale]

Do you guys think the Iranians are that much behind it all?

 

Personally I feel that Alsader group have their agendas and it would be kind of simplistic view of neiling all what had happened to the Iranians..

First it came after the Shia protest against the Veto item in the transit law. Then the increasing suspecious feeling about the real intention of Americans that point to some under cover deals that the Americans might doing with some Sunni's as a compromise for stopping their "resistance"..

Adding to this, the most imporatnt issue of poor living condition of Iraqi's in those neighborhoods that Alsader kept strong hold in.

 

As for any Inranian link.. Though it might be possible, but I personally doubt it.. Based on the great support that Iranians are putting both on the economic and political sides to the Iraqi ecomy and the GC.

Based on the great support that Iranians are putting both on the economic and political sides to the Iraqi ecomy and the GC.

salim,

We in the states do not hear much about the economic or political aid offered by Iran.

Could you expand on some the the aid that does cross the border?

 

I was wondering what you thought about the possibility of Iranian military support if a certain cleric suggested it to the GC.

 

I know the US would be against such an offer of support...

..

Unless... it was part of a UN approved solution ?

 

 

What do you think?

Would Iran even make such an offer of UN peacekeepers ?

 

Would Shia majority see them as Persian invaders?

 

Anyway,

First it came after the Shia protest against the Veto item in the transit law.

Many Americans continue to support the mission and this young cleric being captured and tried for the murders by Iraqi courts should take center stage.

There is more to democracy then "an all powerfull leader".

 

 

This also must be considered as an alterior motive by the Americans;

 

The judicial system needs to be tested.

To accept the responsibility of a nation

to try men under the laws of men.

[salim]

Airedale,

Could you expand on some the the aid that does cross the border?

 

The Iranian had a lot of deals with new Iraqi governemnt regarding electricity, trading. The most important is the the flourishing touristic activity by the Iranians "around 10000" each day which is critical in pushing the weak Iraqi economical weel..While the huge CPA projects are touching the services, the Iranian s religous tourists are contributing a lot to the day to day retail buisness.. After the Ashoura explosions, the Iranian goverment blocked the waves of Iranians, and there was a real freez in the market activities. Because of their lack to many consumer , especially electrical utilities and other basic stauff, Iraq today is the free duty zone of the middel east.. Iranian are getting the best of it as other Arab neighbors are putting a lot of restrictions.

 

Politically , the Iranian were the first to recognize the GC, some thing that breock the ice ring that most Arab governments were putting.. Iranian officials meet with Iraqi officials at all levels..Some thing that other Arab s still reluctant about.

 

I was wondering what you thought about the possibility of Iranian military support if a certain cleric suggested it to the GC

 

I would say that this would very unlikely.. There is a great sensitivity against any military or political influence by Iraqis to any neighbor or Arab country.. I don't think any clegy would dare commiting such political suicide by even suggesting such thing.. There is only one possibility for that though.. The call of some Arab Army to get in and participate in a UN mission.This would a trigger for a lot of fears within Iraqis and might find some one asking for Iranin counter balance.. Just for pushing back though!

Iraqis , including Shia, are very sensativeto any Iranian military presence in Iraq.. Alsader paid a heavy cost in his populrity within Shia because of the allegations that he is follwing an Iranian agenda. While SIRC got a lot of boost because of Ayatulahh Alhakim clever move of distant the SCRI away from the Iranian influence.

The judicial system needs to be tested.

 

Indeed this is a very good point and would suggest for Alsader to go for it, such a move would be considered by Iraqis as a great help in going forward for law-of order state.. We have to put in mind that Shia faith of Islam is a strong believer in Judicial system.. Imam Ali, whose mosque/grave yard that Alsader taking refuge at, is the first Muslim Khalieef to establish the Juicial stystem in Islam with power exceeding the ruler "khleef" power..

 

Ironically, one of the main demands by Alsader is the right and open trail for Saddam, that he is not happy with it's delay

[Guest Guest_layth]

من يحمي الشيعه؟

 

بعد ان صاغ العم (ابوناجي) لبنه دستور العراق المؤقت الدائم!! بالاشتراك مع العم (بوش) ليقره مجلس الحكم اللاانتقالي بعد ان ضمن كل طرف مصلحته في ذلك الدستور , ظهر للسطح تذمر الشارع العراقي وخصوصا (الشيعي) من ذلك الدستور الذي لم يتوقع ان يكون موقف من يمثله من الشيعه هناك ان يكون بهذا الشكل من الضعف , بحيث يمكن تشبيهه كثره اعضاءه في المجلس ككثره دول العرب تجاه اسرائيل (الاكراد) الذين ضمنوا كل شيئ لصالحهم بالرغم من قلتهم في ذلك المجلس بدعوى انهم يريدون (حمايه انفسهم) من الاغلبيه العربيه التي لطالما عانوا منها!!.

مما لاشك فيه ان المخطط اكبر بكثير من قدرات هذا الشاب المغامر الذي لم يذكر التاريخ له منقبه في السياسه او العلم لكنه يحاول ان يجد لنفسه موطأ قدم في مجلس استبعده تماما لانه غير مرغوب به لقله حيلته السياسيه من ناحيه او ربما لاستغلاله (مطيه) لعبور مرحله من مراحل تنفيذ ذلك المخطط .

ومما لا شك فيه ايضا ان غالبيه اتباع هذا الشاب هم من ذوي الثقافه المحدوده ان لم تكن معدمه , وكل ما يمتلكونه هو حبهم لمذهبهم الذي وجدوه في ابيه (رحمه الله) لينتقل اليه وراثه !! دون اي جهد منه في بناء ذلك المذهب او الارتقاء به الى مستوى الحدث .

اما القله القليله الباقيه فهي فئه مثقفه ولها باع طويل في النضال ضد الطاغيه الا انها وجدت نفسها خارج الملعب كما هو حال شيعه العراق الاخرون وهذا ما دعاها للتمحور مع (الزعيم الشاب) املا في نيل بعض (الكعكه) اذا ما حصل قائدهم على بعض منها مستقبلا .

ومما لاشك فيه ايضا ان استغلت ايران هذه الورقه حمايه لمصالحها في المنطقه لتدعمه بشتى الوسائل ليكون (عالم الدين) مقتدى الصدر!! كما تصفه فضائيه (العالم) او الزعيم الشاب قائد التيار الصدري كما تصفه فضائيات العهر العربي (الجزيره والعربيه) لينفخوا به كما نفخت ذات يوم ابواق الاعلام الامريكي القائد الجرذ ليكون البطل الذي يخشى منه !!!! ليستمر في نهجه الاخرق المستند على روح النصر والروح القتاليه و و و ولتكون النتيجه هي مما نحن به الان .

وهكذا ضاع دم الشيعه ما بين القبائل .

فقبيله مجلس الحكم لا تستطيع التراجع عما اتفقت به مع قوات التحالف (لان وعد الحر دين)!

والزعيم الشاب يريد من الفضائيات ان تنقل اخباره باستمرار كما يصرح هو بنفسه او كما يصرح به تابعيه .

والشيعي المسكين لايدري اين ستقذف به الاعصار , فصدام الذي انهكهم ذبحا وتقتيلا ومقابر جاء الان دور من لا يابه بهم ليقذفهم في انتفاضات وسيل جديد من الدماء .

انها دوره جديده من التغييب والتقتيل لهذه الطائفه المغبون حقها على مر العصور.

اننا الان احوج ما نكون الى الاصغاء لصوت التعقل والتفكير الطويل قبل الاقدام على مغامره اخرى تضاف الى سلسله مغامرات القائد المنصور بالله التي اهلكت الحرث والنسل .

كما ندعو الله ان يكف عنا شر شيعه من يريد بنا سوءا في ايران و لبنان وندعوهم متوسلين ان يهتموا اكثر في شأنهم الذي يعانون منه وان كان لهم من الشجاعه ما يكفي فليكونوا في صدر تلك المواجهه لا ان يدفعوا صدر العراق اليها.

ولله المشتكى

 

بهلول الحكيم

Bahlol58@hotmail.com

We had talk with some relatives in Najaf and Kadymia they have similar response.

Why americans entered alsader city? no one explain .

In anyhow Iraqies are not much exiting about this event....majority want stabilty..so they can live peacefully.

Definitly not only american army play a role, I have strong feeling that many sides

are unhappy for new democracy in Iraq.

Intellegence services can hier many people ....to unstablize Iraq..

[Guest Guest_tajer]

Why americans entered alsader city? no one explain .

 

Simply because Almehi Army took over two police stations and set the rule of the militia on part of the city..

I just called a relative in Alsader city in Baghdad and he confirmed to me that every thing is back to normal.. There was some very minor clashes in city of two million people, but no thing so big to make the whole city as hostile place,.. He also asked me not to belive the news agencies..

As for the incident in Alfirdos, he told me that no more than a bunch of demostrators were trying to approach the Americans, then get blocked peacfully.

[Guest Guest_tajer]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/07/internat.../07IRAQ.html?th

 

So far, though, followers of Mr. Sadr have not been heeding it. His black-clad militiamen have rolled over Iraqi security forces in a number of cities, including Kufa, Najaf, Nasiriya, Basra and Baghdad, and taken over government offices.

 

Really funny! I just called Basrah, Baghdad/Alsader city, and Najaf.. All confirmend that nothing there and there absolutely no militia left in the government offices after the Systani call to evacuate them.. They mentioned that there are some miltia touring around in some streets but most of them are strangers that local people don't sympthize with..

I also noticed the same tone as the writer of the above article while watching cnn yesterday with their correspodent talking from Baghdad in a way as if Iraq is in a real war.. Very funny ! Ha!

[Guest Guest]

http://www.daralhayat.com/arab_news/04-200....txt/story.html

 

In arabic.. A libanies Sunni reproter claiming the Iranian involvement in the current Alsader up rise.. Some Arab Sunnis are looking to growing relations between Iraqis and Iranians with big sensativity.. Same to what Some Shia look to Iraqi relations with some nArab countries.. He try to invest this sensitivity in this Alsader recent move.

[Guest Guest_salim]

I called two different places today in Baghdad.. Both are Shia..The first is located in Almansoor discret west Baghdad.. They told that some universities were shut down by some armed elements of Almehdi Army, such as Alzuafrania Tech Institute and University of Technology.. However they told that life in their discret is very normal.

The Other is in Alkarada, the Shia majority area.. They also told that their life if normal..The person I had talked to has a factory in the Alsader neighborhood "Jameela".. He told me that he went to office and there was some leaflets by Alsader militial asking people to close their shops.. When I asked him how he dare to open , He replied " My people in the factory are from the same area so no one dare to do any thing!" He told me that life at night is almost freezed.

[Guest Guest_salim]

Cont.

 

Both parties told me that there is a growing upset within the Shia community for what is happening by Alsader ..The asnoshing thing is that march to Kerbala by Shia preligms was already statred and thousands are starting their long annyall mrach of foot to kerbala from all over Shia areas. dispite all the danger that they might be hit by the Salfee/Sadamees again and dispite all the unstability .

[josparke]

Hope things turn out OK! Any of you close to the fighting at all?

[salim]

http://kitabat.com/r19089.htm

 

The above is in Arabic.. Very interesting.. An Iraqi scholar who is an Alsader followers, is writing about the current escalations..

 

Below some of the points:

1- He started his article by commenting on the huge no. of letters that came from fellow Shia asking about how it is possible that he, as an acadymic schollar , would accept being part of group that is considered by most Iraqi scholars as very retarted.. Then he explained his points..

 

2-Almehdi Armi is just one of the many miltia's that are currently working in Iraq, so why it is the only one not allowed. As for the point that Almehdi Army is an armed force.. He said that this not true , and what what was seen on TV is just personal arms that most people today have ..

 

 

3-As for Alsader demands..He asked

Isn't it the basic right to express your points through a civilized way by having a news paper.

Isn't it the basic right that people have the right to demonstrate peacfully

Is n't the random arrest reminding us to the old Saddam regim style.?

 

 

When the minster of defencse of the greatest country in the world says that he will destroy Alsader, is n't that escalation?

 

Is it appropriat to show clergy such as Mr Alyakoubi in such humilating way as criminal , at a time he is just accused.?

 

Don't you agree that the Americans are mixing papers by accussing Mr. Alsader after he finished with his preparations for the killing of his uncle and relatives against Saddam..

 

It is long.. I am sending him a copy of this translation as I feel that he have the right to express his points directly..