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الأنتخابات والعامل الأميركي


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Iraq Election Results Hint of Political Shift

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/world/mi...l?th&emc=th

 

 

A major realignment was also under way within the Shiite alliance that represented Mr. Maliki's biggest challenge in the south. Former exiles who played a dominant role in Shiite politics since 2003 lagged behind candidates of Mr. Sadr in Baghdad and several provinces. Candidates and other politicians say Mr. Sadr's followers may have even won a majority of the alliance's votes, making them second only to Mr. Maliki as a Shiite force.

 

Rivals question the movement's maturity. Mr. Sadr remains in exile in Iran. Others wonder about the unpredictability of a group that has embraced the political process but still celebrates a martial culture built on its fight with the American military.

 

"The major sectarian political blocs have been broken to pieces," said Ghassan al-Attiya, a political analyst. "But it is not yet the end of sectarian politics."

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Followers of Sadr Emerge Stronger After Iraq Elections

By ANTHONY SHADID

Published: March 16, 2010

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/world/mi...ast/17sadr.html</H6>

 

"Don't forget to vote for one candidate only!" one leaflet declared.

 

One detailed diagram, drawn up by the Sadrist strategists, broke down a vast slum by precinct. For one candidate, Hakim al-Zamili, a former deputy minister of health widely accused of running death squads during the civil war, voters were organized in 22 locales. So far, he is the sixth-biggest vote-getter in Baghdad and seems sure to receive a seat.

 

"Congratulations!" worshipers said as they greeted him at Friday Prayer in Sadr City. "Good luck!" others shouted, surging forward to kiss Mr. Zamili on the cheek.

 

To each and every one, he reciprocated with a smile, kiss or handshake.

 

"We are the masses," he said afterward. "The rest of the parties rely on individual leaders. We're the strength and the numbers, and we've risen through the election."

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  • 2 weeks later...

Allawi’s Victory in Iraq Election Sets Up Period of Uncertainty

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/27/world/mi...ast/27iraq.html

 

 

Some observers believe that Mr. Allawi, who is a secular Shiite, will have great difficulty cobbling together the necessary support and that Mr. Maliki may be able to return as prime minister.

 

“His problem is that while he is a pragmatist who could make a deal with the Kurds and some Shiite factions, one of his main constituencies are Sunni Arab nationalists who would not countenance an alliance with the Kurds, unless the Kurds made impossible concessions on Kirkuk and other disputed areas,” said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group. One result, he said, could be that the main Shiite parties could regroup and form a government similar to this one.

 

If Mr. Allawi failed to form a government, that task would fall to Mr. Maliki, who would be likely to seek an accommodation with the Iraqi National Alliance of Mr. Sadr.

 

 

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Maliki Contests the Result of Iraq Vote

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/world/mi...l?th&emc=th

 

The election commission has still not released the names of the winning candidates, only their total numbers by party affiliation, so it is unclear how many of those 52 might be among the winners.

 

An Iraqiya lawmaker, Mustafa al-Hiti, said he was sure at least one winning candidate from Iraqiya would be subject to disqualification. However, he said that person would be replaced by another Iraqiya candidate.

 

The deputy head of the electoral commission, Amal al-Bairiqdar, also said that would probably be the outcome. "If that case happens, the election commission will decide," she said.

 

But Ali Faisal al-Halami, the executive director of the accountability commission, said that the party would not necessarily have a say in replacing a disqualified candidate.

 

"No, you can't do that, you should discount their votes for that candidate and his list, they should be nullified totally," he said. That needs to happen to only two candidates to strip Mr. Allawi of his plurality.

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Iraqi Ex-Premier Looks to Past in Fighting Critics

 

30allawi_CA0-articleLarge.jpg Joao Silva for The New York TimesAyad Allawi spoke of being viciously attacked in his bedroom in 1978 in London, where he was in exile after breaking with Saddam Hussein's Baath Party.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/world/mi...l?th&emc=th

 

 

Mr. Allawi was critical of the arrests of his followers by Mr. Maliki's government, particularly that of Najim al-Harbi, who was his Iraqiya list's top vote-getter in the mixed Shiite and Sunni province of Diyala. He is being held in a secret location without access to a lawyer, Mr. Allawi said, on terrorism charges. "The De-Baath Commission is working very hard, probably they will de-Baathify the 91 guys who won," he said, predicting that the commission would invalidate his candidates.

 

"I can tell you with confidence if they have their way and start twisting things, I can assure you this country will be engulfed with violence and this violence will not remain inside of Iraq, it will spread," he said.

 

Whether he succeeds in forming a government or not, his family is not likely to join him in Iraq, he said. "I have my children and my wife in London because they can't come here," he said. He remarried after his first wife died. "What schools could they go to here? The children of Ayad Allawi, what would they do to them? They would kill them."

 

His conversation returned again to that night in Kingston upon Thames. "When I fought these guys who tried to kill me and then when I fought against Saddam, I had a very tough time," he said, "but I'm not frightened easily."

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Iraq needs help to avoid a sectarian resurgence

By Zalmay Khalilzad

 

Published: April 8 2010 22:26

 

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04ea3d90-4342-11...144feab49a.html

 

To this end the US needs to adopt a more hands-on approach and encourage the Maliki coalition, the Allawi coalition and the Kurdish alliance to form a grand coalition and avoid steps that would drive Mr Maliki into accepting Iran's proposals. Iran's desire to avoid either Mr Maliki or Mr Allawi being prime minister should be used to urge an agreement between them – perhaps with each becoming prime minister for two years, with the other as deputy. There are, after all, significant similarities between the Allawi and Maliki programmes. Facilitating the emergence of such a coalition will be difficult, given the personalities involved. But it is very important for Iraq's success. The outcome of the current struggle in Iraq could tip the balance of power in the region.

 

 

My comment:

 

I an article that I wrote "the last chance" on this forum, I suggested a similar action to be taken. However my proposal was not based on timely based total sharing. My proposal is to devide the power vertically. Government pm to one party and Presidency to other. One way to balance the power of the two positions is to get the PM assigning his constitutional authority as high commander of armed forces to the president.

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  • 3 weeks later...

US plans and the political outcome of the 2010 Iraqi Election

 

By Munir Chalabi

 

 

 

The US plans for the election

 

The US plans to interfere in the election in order to help the parties who support their plans were only insignificantly successful. The US plan was to get rid of Al Maliki's government in the 2010 election and replace him with a combination of political coalitions that are more loyal to Washington. These incorporated the two Kurdish parties, the KDP and PUK to be the main representatives of the Kurds, the ISCI as representatives of the majority of the Shiites, and the Al-Iraqiyya list, which is controlled by Ba'ath party alliances, as representatives of the Sunnis. The US plan did not completely succeed in the Kurdish areas as the PUK and the KDP were unable to win more than 43 out of the 57 Kurdish seats, due to the ability of the Gorran party and the two Islamic Kurdish movements to prevent large scale fraud. In the Shiite areas, the ISCI votes collapsed and therefore the pro-US Shiite parties were unable to gain more then 25 to 30 seats (including the 17 ISCI seats) out off the 159 mainly Shiite seats.

Sandra Mitchell (nicknamed Madam CIA), an American who serves as chief technical adviser" to UNAM in Baghdad, has been accused (in Arabic) from day one of the election by several Iraqi political parties of not only controlling the Independent High Electoral Commission, but also in falsifying the final results.

 

An Iraqi court has recently ordered IHEC to carry out a hand recount of the election ballot papers for the Baghdad Government (represented in the Federal parliament by 68 out of 325 seats) and not to use suspicious computer programs supplied and controlled by UNAM, which were very much open to suspicious results as admitted by Mitchell in one of her technical reports on the process. The court order was taken after documented claims submitted by Al-Maliki's list that mass fraud was carried out by IHEC and UNAM in favour of Allawi's Al-Iraqiyya list.

 

In one of his first TV interviews after the election on the Al-Iraqia TV station, Allawi openly called for the privatization of Iraq's oil and gas wealth. He stated that if he became Iraqi Prime Minister, he would ensure the passage of the draft "Oil and Gas Law" with some additional changes, to give more power to the international oil companies by making production sharing contracts (PSCs) the major policy of his government and that he would approve all the PSC's contracts which were signed by the Kurdish Regional Government.

 

So we should not be surprised to see him and the Ba'ath party once more leading the US political plans to retain US control in Iraq.

http://www.zcommunications.org/us-plans-an...y-munir-chalabi

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An unlikely Iraqi leader emerges

 

Iraqi newcomer Jaafar Sadr, from a highly respected Shiite clerical family, could emerge as an alternative for the prime minister's post.

May 03, 2010|By Liz Sly, Los Angeles TimesReporting from Baghdad —

 

 

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/may/03/wo...remier-20100503

 

 

 

 

Amid the political and judicial bickering surrounding the still-unresolved elections, it is impossible to predict who will head the next government. Secularist Iyad Allawi, whose slate won the most seats though not a majority, is claiming the right, while Maliki is making it clear he intends to fight to keep his position. But many diplomats and analysts suspect the premiership will go to neither man, and that a relative unknown will emerge as a compromise.

 

Jaafar Sadr is already being widely tipped for that role. His youth and inexperience count against him, but at the same time he has had no chance yet to make enemies, unlike most other politicians

.

 

 

In fact, Sadr said, years of studying Islam have convinced him that religion and politics don't mix, and though it was his father who formulated the ideology that shaped the thinking of Iran's revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he does not share his views.

 

"I think Sayed Mohammed Baqir Sadr, if he was here today, would change his thoughts when faced with the demands of reality," he said. "It's not possible to be frozen on thoughts which are considered part of history."

 

Rather, Sadr said, he regards himself as a moderate who would like to see the Iraqi state modeled along the lines of the United States or Britain, with their emphasis on individual freedoms and pluralism. Though he spent many years in exile in Iran, he believes Iraq should maintain a "strong, strategic" relationship with America, as well as close ties with Iran.

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