الموقف الايراني من ما يجري في العراق

[baghda]

Very intersting article by Iraqi Mr. Basim Mustaar About the Iranian position toward what is happening in Iraq..

We will try to translate later. keep tuned

 

 

 

الموقف الايراني  من ما يجري في العراق

بقلم: باسم المستعار

بمكن ملاحظه اسلوبين يميزان  وسائل التحليل السياسي العراقي  للموقف الايراني تجاه ما يحصل في العراق

الاول ينطلق من واقع ثقافي  او ديني  حسن النوايا والثاني يتخد من الاختلاف المدهبي و التاريخي مبررا لهواجسه

 

لااعتقد ان من الحكمه ان نتعامل مع ايران الا من خلال كونها الجاره الاكبر  للعراق  , فليست الحدود الاطول هي المحدد الوحيد لهده الجيره بل يتعدى دلك الى عوامل جيو سياسيه واجتماعيه عميقه جدا , يجعل مايجري في العراق يؤثر بشكل مباشر على   مصالحها الانيه و   الاستراتيجيه

فكما ان تفتيت العراق و وقوعه في مستنقع الفوضى امر لايخدم ايران فان عراق قوي  تحت قياده شموليه   تستمد نفودها من الخارج وكما هو الحال مع النظام السياسي  الدي حكمنا خلال القرن الماضي , امر غير محبد وقد دفعت ايران ثمنا باهضا  عندما  اختار صدام و بعض الاعراب  شن الحرب المهلكه عليها  بالنيابه عن مصالح غربيه معروفه

من مصلحه ابران ان يكون العراق موحدا ولكن ادا ضمنت هيمنه عراقيه شعبيه متقاطعه ومتوازنه على توجهاته  .

 

وحده العراق تعني ضمان عدم قيام دوله كرديه قد  تمتد لاحقا للمنطقه الكرديه الايرانيه بينما يوفر حكم الائتلاف الشعبي  ضمانه كبيره لعدم الرضوخ للعوامل الخارجيه فيما يتعلق بالمصالح المشتركه بين البلدين . كما تضمن وحده العراق  الابقاء على الموازنه الاستراتيجيه بين العرب  وبين الدوله الاسرائيليه مما يوفر  منطقه عزل لايران عن  اسرائيل  حيث تعتقد ايران ان هناك ثلاث قوى رئيسيه ستلعب دورا في مستقبل الشرق الاوسط وهي اسرائيل وايران وتركيا

فبالاضافه للعامل الكردي فان ايران تتخوف من الاسلوب الدي سوف يتم فيه توزيع المنطقه الغربيه من العراق في حاله التفتيت  فهناك تسابقا  سوريا اردنيا حول الاقتسام كما ان هناك منافسه تركيه تريد الحصول على الجزء الساخن من الكعكه المتمثل بكركوك

ايران تتخوف ان يتيح التفتيت تمدد الاردن  ومن ورائها اسرائيل الى هده  المنطقه  التي تصل في حدودها الصحراويه  الجنوبيه  المتراميه  الى منطقه الخليج كما تصل في امتدادها الشرقي الى الحدود الايرانيه مما  يهدد الطوح الايراني و يجعل اسرائيل  الموازن الطبيعي لايران في هده المنطقه الحساسه  لدا فان ايران  تقف يقوه الى جانب الطموح السوري ,في حاله وقوع المحضور,  في  ابتلاع الجزء الغربي الشمالي على الاقل   ممثلا بالموصل و اعالي الجزيره  والدي سيجعل لسوريا  الكبرى ولاول مره في التاريخ الحديث دورا رئيسيا في الشرق الاوسط  يمكن ان تقبل به  ايران كتعويض  استراتيجي للتمدد الاردني   من ناحيه وكمنطقه عزل لتركيا من ناحيه اخرى

 

ومع دلك فمصلحه التوحيد هده تناقضها مصلحه التفتيت . فتفتيت العراق سيجعل ايران اللاعب  المحلي الرئيسي في

منطقه الخليج الضعيف بشريا  والغني  نفطيا

كما سيضمن لها جارا صديقا معزولا في الجزء الشيعي بحكم التشابه المدهبي واخر اكثر ضعفا  وعزله في الجزء الكردي

 

  موضوع الديمقراطيه في العراق لااعتقده هاجسا كبيرا  بحد داته  لايران بقدر ما هو الحال  لدى الحكام العرب , بل على العكس فهو ضمان لاستقرار الحدود الغربيه لايران وكما اسلفنا  ولكن هناك بعدا داخليا يمكن ان يشغلها

الا وهو   استقرار العراق  و احتمال انطلاق  دوره كعملاق اقتصادي في المنطقه  وما يمكن ان يعكسه دلك من بروز المرجعيه الدينيه في النجف والتي لا تتماشى رؤيتها المدهبيه مع مبدا ولايه الفقيه , هدا البروز المحتمل الدي  لابد وان يمثل هاجسا انيا  للطبقه الدينيه  الحاكمه الحاليه  في ايران بالرغم من انه قد لايكون كدلك من وجهه نضر ايرانيه استراتيجيه.

 

 

من هنا ارى هدا الصراع داخل ايران بين من يسعى لدفع العمليه السياسيه  وبين من   يحاول زعزعه  استقرار العراق

ومن هنا ايضا ارى هدا التردد الايراني في لعب دور مؤثر في الواقع العراقي  وبما يتناسب مع حجم ثقلها داخل العراق   وكما تفعل حاليا الاردن وسوريا 

[Guest Guest_layth]

Very intersting article by Iraqi Mr. Basim Mustaar About the Iranian position toward what is happening in Iraq..

We will try to translate later. keep tuned

 

 

 

الموقف الايراني  من ما يجري في العراق

بقلم: باسم المستعار

بمكن ملاحظه اسلوبين يميزان  وسائل التحليل السياسي العراقي  للموقف الايراني تجاه ما يحصل في العراق

الاول ينطلق من واقع ثقافي  او ديني  حسن النوايا والثاني يتخد من الاختلاف المدهبي و التاريخي مبررا لهواجسه

 

لااعتقد ان من الحكمه ان نتعامل مع ايران الا من خلال كونها الجاره الاكبر  للعراق  , فليست الحدود الاطول هي المحدد الوحيد لهده الجيره بل يتعدى دلك الى عوامل جيو سياسيه واجتماعيه عميقه جدا , يجعل مايجري في العراق يؤثر بشكل مباشر على   مصالحها الانيه و   الاستراتيجيه

فكما ان تفتيت العراق و وقوعه في مستنقع الفوضى امر لايخدم ايران فان عراق قوي  تحت قياده شموليه   تستمد نفودها من الخارج وكما هو الحال مع النظام السياسي  الدي حكمنا خلال القرن الماضي , امر غير محبد وقد دفعت ايران ثمنا باهضا  عندما  اختار صدام و بعض الاعراب  شن الحرب المهلكه عليها  بالنيابه عن مصالح غربيه معروفه

من مصلحه ابران ان يكون العراق موحدا ولكن ادا ضمنت هيمنه عراقيه شعبيه متقاطعه ومتوازنه على توجهاته  .

 

وحده العراق تعني ضمان عدم قيام دوله كرديه قد  تمتد لاحقا للمنطقه الكرديه الايرانيه بينما يوفر حكم الائتلاف الشعبي  ضمانه كبيره لعدم الرضوخ للعوامل الخارجيه فيما يتعلق بالمصالح المشتركه بين البلدين . كما تضمن وحده العراق  الابقاء على الموازنه الاستراتيجيه بين العرب  وبين الدوله الاسرائيليه مما يوفر  منطقه عزل لاسرائيل  حيث تعتقد ايران ان هناك ثلاث قوى رئيسيه ستلعب دورا في مستقبل الشرق الاوسط وهي اسرائيل وايران وتركيا

فبالاضافه للعامل الكردي فان ايران تتخوف من الاسلوب الدي سوف يتم فيه توزيع المنطقه الغربيه من العراق في حاله التفتيت  فهناك تسابقا  سوريا اردنيا حول الاقتسام كما ان هناك منافسه تركيه تريد الحصول على الجزء الساخن من الكعكه المتمثل بكركوك

ايران تتخوف ان يتيح التفتيت تمدد الاردن  ومن ورائها اسرائيل الى هده  المنطقه  التي تصل في حدودها الصحراويه  الجنوبيه  المتراميه  الى منطقه الخليج كما تصل في امتدادها الغربي الى الحدود الايرانيه مما يجعل اسرائيل  الموازن الطبيعي لايران في هده المنطقه الحساسه  وهي تقف يقوه الى جانب الطموح السوري ,في حاله وقوع المحضور,  في  ابتلاع الجزء الغربي الشمالي على الاقل   ممثلا بالموصل و اعالي الجزيره  والدي سيجعل لسوريا  الكبرى ولاول مره في التاريخ الحديث دورا رئيسيا في الشرق الاوسط  يمكن ان تقبل به  ايران كتعويض  استراتيجي للتمدد الاردني   من ناحيه وكمنطقه عزل لتركيا من ناحيه اخرى

 

ومع دلك فمصلحه التوحيد هده تناقضها مصلحه التفتيت . فتفتيت العراق سيجعل ايران اللاعب  المحلي الرئيسي في

منطقه الخليج الضعيف بشريا  والغني  نفطيا

كما سيضمن لها جارا صديقا معزولا في الجزء الشيعي بحكم التشابه المدهبي واخر اكثر ضعفا  وعزله في الجزء الكردي

 

  موضوع الديمقراطيه في العراق لااعتقده هاجسا كبيرا  بحد داته  لايران بقدر ما هو الحال  لدى الحكام العرب , بل على العكس فهو ضمان لاستقرار الحدود الغربيه لايران وكما اسلفنا  ولكن هناك بعدا داخليا يمكن ان يشغلها

الا وهو   استقرار العراق  و احتمال انطلاق  دوره كعملاق اقتصادي في المنطقه  وما يمكن ان يعكسه دلك من بروز المرجعيه الدينيه في النجف والتي لا تتماشى رؤيتها المدهبيه مع مبدا ولايه الفقيه , هدا البروز المحتمل الدي  لابد وان يمثل هاجسا انيا  للطبقه الدينيه  الحاكمه في ايران بالرغم من انه قد لايكون كدلك من وجهه نضر ايرانيه استراتيجيه

 

 

من هنا ارى هدا الصراع داخل ايران بين من يسعى لدفع العمليه السياسيه  وبين من   يحاول زعزعه  استقرار العراق

ومن هنا ايضا ارى هدا التردد الايراني في لعب دور مؤثر في الواقع العراقي يتناسب مع حجم ثقلها داخل العراق   وكما تفعل حاليا الاردن وسوريا 

If we talk about Iraq do you mean the goverment or the iraqi people?

Iraqies(the majority) has the same Idiologies as the Iranians.

(Wylayat alfaqyeeh) is not big issue.Alsystany have a majore role in the political process in Iraq.I dont think you denay that. so he is in avery similar situation to

wylayt al faqeeh.Think it this way :he ordered the majority not to ellect certain person to certain position definitly this person will not be ellected by the majority.

I am supposing there will be realy true ellections.

Kurds of Iran live much better life than the Kurds of Iraq,polatically and economically.I have some evidences,but this is not the proper time to show.

Iran will welcome the democracy in Iraq, because the majority in Iraq have the same Idiology which Iran has.

If you consider any polatical issue in middle east there are three parameters all work together: Islam + petroll+the jewish state.

Your opinions are fair,you are detailed, and not surficial, even I dont agree on evry point you mentioned.

I would like to hear from you

thanks for your writing on this site.

Layth

[Guest mutegem]

Translating the Article above

 

The Iranian position toward Iraq

By Basim Almustaar

 

It is easy to notice that there are two main methods  by Iraqi analysists to the Iranian position.. One with goodwill and other with a lot of historical suspecion.

I don't think that it is wise to analyse the real Iranian position but through the fact it is the largest Iraqi neighbor.. Not only for the long boarder but also through the deep geo political and social relations. Some thing that makes any change in Iraq to be with very big impact on Iran.

 

While it is true that splitting Iraq and having this country in choatic situation would be not in Iranian interest, it is also true that a strong toletarian Iraq is not good for Iran too. Iran paid a very big price when the strong Saddam and some Arabs tried their best to fight Iran on belhalf of the west.

It is in the iranian interst  to have  a unified Iraq but if Iran garantee a democratic  full sovernity goverment rulled by different intersected groups

 

The unity of Iraq means no threat by a Kurdish state to extend into Iranian Kurdistan, and the a multi polar goverment means less possibility of acting against the will of the mutaul interest . Also, united Iraq would keep the stratigic balance with Isreal and would play an essential rule as a buffer zone with Isreal. Iranian realize that there will be three main powers in middel east, namely Isreal, Turky and Iran.

In addition to the kurdish factor, Iran have a lot of fears by the way that the westren region of Iraq would be devided, as there is a race between Syria and Jorden with a competition by the Turkish to have the hotest part of the cake "Kirkuk".

Iran main concern is that Jorden "on behalf of Isreal" would expand to this region especially to it's vast southren  desert that reaches the Gulf. Something that would make Isreal a real competitor for Iran in the most sensative gulf region.

Iran would strongly support Syrai in it's goal, in the non preferable Iraqi splitt scenario, to establish the Great Syria that include Mosul and upper Iraqi penonsula,  Something that allow Syria to play a major rule in the new ME for first time.Iran might accept this as countring the Isreali/Jorden expantion from one side and to buffer the Turkes from Gulf region as another.

 

Nevertheless, the unification interest is opposed by the splitt interest by Iran to Iraq. The splitt of Iraq would make Iran the sole main player in the Gulf and would assure a weak isolated friend in the south and another weeker neightbor  in the north

 

The democratic issue is not of main concern to the Iranians as the case with Arab goverments, it is on the contrary as I explaind earlier. However there is another specific concern by the Iranians. An economically strong Iraq  would reflect a stronger postion to Najaf classical Shia school of thoughts that reject Walaia Alfaqueh. This would be a killing reciepe for the  religios rulers of Iran, though it would be not from  the Iranian stratigic intersts.

 

 

From all the above , I would see a struggle within the Iranian governement between those who would support the political process in Iraq and those who work a gainst it.. In my opinon ,this hesitation is the reason behind the very limited influence of Iranians in Iraq today compared to it's potential and as Jorden and Syria are playing today.

[Guest Guest_tajer]

U.S. Said to Weigh Sanctions on Syria Over Iraqi Network

By DOUGLAS JEHL

 

Published: January 5, 2005

 

 

ASHINGTON, Jan. 4 - The Bush administration is considering imposing new sanctions on Syria to prod it to crack down on Iraqis there who are providing financial and logistical support to insurgents in Iraq, senior American counterterrorism officials said Tuesday.

 

The Syrian government has not taken action against the network of Iraqis, the officials said, despite months of quiet protests from the United States. Among the steps being considered is a Treasury Department action that could essentially isolate the Syrian banking system.

 

The network includes former officials of Saddam Hussein's government, American officials have said, adding that intelligence gathered in recent months from informants, captives and intercepted communications suggested that the network's role in providing support to insurgents in Iraq was more extensive than previously suspected.

 

While the anti-American insurgency would continue to thrive even without help from Syria, the American officials say, Iraqis in Syria are playing a significant role in coordinating the flows of money, weapons and combatants inside Iraq.

 

Syrian officials have sought to rebut the American criticism by saying the United States has yet to provide them with sufficient accurate information to prompt action against the individual Iraqis who the Americans say are in the network.

 

"We have told the Americans to please give us any information you have regarding this subject, but some of the information has not been credible," said Ammar Alarsan, a spokesman for the Syrian Embassy in Washington.

 

Among Iraqis believed to be living at least part time in Syria and playing an active role in the insurgency are several of Mr. Hussein's close relatives. In addition, Izzat Ibrahim, the No. 2 official in Iraq under Mr. Hussein and now the most-wanted Iraqi still sought by the United States, has traveled to and from Syria in the past 18 months, American officials say. In recent weeks the interim Iraqi government and its American backers have become increasingly outspoken in calling attention to what it describes as a regional command in exile in Syria.

 

The American officials would speak about Syria only on condition of anonymity, saying they did not want their comments to overshadow recent public remarks by Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top American commander in Iraq, Richard L. Armitage, the deputy secretary of state, and others.

 

The officials interviewed represented several government agencies involved in counterterrorism policy, including those favoring a more patient approach toward Syria and those urging a harder line.

 

General Casey said publicly last month that the United States had "fairly good information" that some senior former officials of the Iraqi Baath Party had established a high command that was "operating out of Syria with impunity and providing direction and financing for the insurgency in Iraq."

 

"That needs to stop," General Casey said in a Dec. 16 briefing at the Pentagon.

 

On a visit to Syria over the weekend, Mr. Armitage delivered what one American official described as a "stern warning" to the Damascus government. Adam Ereli, the department's deputy spokesman, said Monday that Mr. Armitage had emphasized "that there's still a problem with former regime elements using Syria to help the insurgency and that it was very important to have that stopped."

 

American and Syrian officials have held high-level meetings in recent months to address their differences, and Syria has said repeatedly that it is committed to working with the United States toward a peaceful, unified Iraq. In recent days Mr. Armitage and other American officials have gone out of their way to praise Syria for taking steps to secure its border with Iraq and prevent foreign fighters from crossing the border to reinforce the insurgency.

 

But a senior American counterterrorism official said the steps taken by Syria so far were unsatisfactory. "More and more, we're seeing groups funded and supported by former regime elements, and they are operating out of and with the support of the Syrian government," the official said. He said that he was not accusing the Syrian government of providing direct support to the insurgency, but that "we haven't yet seen them take appropriate action to prevent the funding and the transport of weapons."

[Guest Mustefser]

http://www.elaph.com/ElaphWriter/2005/1/31863.htm

 

In Arabic.. An article by famous secular writer Rasheed Alkhayoun praising the head of Najaf police and asking the najafians to stand firm against the government officials who seems to be upset for the great job that Aljazaree did in fighting the terror !

[Guest مستفسر]

http://www.elaph.com/Politics/2005/1/32703.htm

 

تسريب صحفي حول الموقف من سوريا

لاندري مصداقيه المقال في عكسه للراي الفرنسي الحقيقي انما هو تعبير عن الانشقاق الخطير في معسكر اعداء جريه العراق

الفرنسيون اللدين وقفوا بقوه من اجل حمايه نظام صدام يريدون الان توظيف نتائج سقوطه لتقويه عملائهم في لبنان

[Guest Guest_tajer]

http://www.asharqalawsat.com/view/leader/2...,10,276428.html

 

In Arabic.. Intersting article by Friedman

[Guest مستفسر]

http://www.iraqoftomorrow.org/printarticle...=28605&pg=index

 

ادا تاكد خبر الاسشيوتد برس.. فان ما تحدث عنه السيد باسم المستعار يبدوا قد بدأ تنفيده

ترقبوا انفصال اقليم دليمستان الاردني "الاسرائيلي" و مبروك للاخوه من فلسطيني الشتات وطن حر وشعب عاصمته الفلوجه

الدوله العظمى التي بشر بها القدافي في لقائه الصحفي الاخير

 

[Guest laith]

http://www.iraqoftomorrow.org/printarticle...=28605&pg=index

 

ادا تاكد خبر الاسشيوتد برس.. فان ما تحدث عنه السيد باسم المستعار يبدوا قد بدأ تنفيده

ترقبوا انفصال اقليم دليمستان الاردني "الاسرائيلي" و مبروك للاخوه من فلسطيني الشتات وطن حر وشعب عاصمته الفلوجه

الدوله العظمى التي بشر بها القدافي في لقائه الصحفي الاخير

 

gathering the remnants of saddam, supervise them by the new goverment,Identify them, collect them , buy them instead of the others will buy them.

This is the right setrategy

[Guest Guest_tajer]

http://www.aljeeran.net/viewarticle.php?id...pg=index&art=mp

 

In Arabic.. Very intersting.. An Iranian scholar is highly otimistic that the current democratic excersize in Iraq would have it's effects on Iran political religious tyrany

[Guest Mustefser]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/25/internat....html?th&emc=th

 

Iran's Ex-Leader Seeks Return in the Trappings of a Reformer

 

 

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR

Published: May 25, 2005

TEHRAN, May 24 - It is an election as contradictory as Iran itself: the front-runner is a pillar of the Islamic Revolution now cast as the man who can curb the excesses of hard-line clerics and improve relations with the country's bogeyman, the United States.

Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, ex-president of Iran, is campaigning to regain his seat by convincing conservatives and liberals than he can bring real change by finding the middle ground. But skeptics abound.

 

 

Transcript: Interview With Iranian Presidential Candidate (May 25, 2005) Indeed, this politician, Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and self-styled free-marketer, cloaks himself in the trappings of a reformist as carefully as he wears his tailored blue-gray clerical robes.

 

But in an interview, one of a series he is giving to promote his candidacy, Mr. Rafsanjani sounds less than conciliatory. He says the United States is not a democracy, and demands that it make the first concession before relations improve. Like all senior officials, he steadfastly defends Iran's right to develop nuclear technology.

 

"There is only a veneer of democracy in the United States, and we have a real democracy," he said, brushing aside suggestions that Iran's election rules unfairly favor the hard-liners who control much of the government. "Election laws are so complicated in your country that people have no choice but to vote for one of the candidates who are with one of the two parties."

 

Mr. Rafsanjani, 70, may best embody the absurdities of the election, on June 17, even if defending Iran by attacking the United States is a favorite tactic of any official dodging questions about domestic issues.

 

Political and social change is so popular that all candidates adopt the vocabulary and style of reform; the arch-conservative mayor of Tehran even showed up to register as a candidate in a remarkable, highly fashionable pink shirt. Yet none of the eight candidates allowed to run want to alter what many here see as their central problem: all power rests in the hands of an unaccountable, supreme religious leader who can overrule elected officials at whim.

 

Hence Iranians are expected to avoid the polls with the same zeal with which they flocked to them in the past two elections, when they arrived full of hope that their votes would produce real change.

 

This is particularly true given that the Guardians Council, an unelected watchdog group, first eliminated, then reinstated the main reformist candidate only after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appealed to the council to give voters a choice.

 

The reinstatement of this reformist, Mustafa Moin, and of another independent candidate signaled that the fate of any candidate remained in the hands of the ayatollah.

 

Aside from Mr. Rafsanjani, the remaining candidates hoping to succeed President Mohammed Khatami include one moderate cleric and four former senior officers in the Revolutionary Guards, whose loyalty to the supreme leader is unquestionable.

 

In this lineup, Mr. Rafsanjani is viewed as a compromise figure - the least distasteful conservative to the liberals and the most liberal among the conservatives.

 

At times he might be described as the most hated man in Iran - blamed for ills ranging from corruption to the inability of reformers to push through even mild political change. Then again, many Iranians wonder if his religious and revolutionary credentials might lend him sufficient influence to confront the supreme leader, a friend and rival.

 

"They would like to see him as president, but they don't want to vote for him," said Nasser Hadian, a political scientist.

 

One rival candidate, Mehdi Karoubi, a centrist cleric and former speaker of Parliament, laid out Mr. Rafsanjani's past democratic failings in a widely circulated letter. He attacked Mr. Rafsanjani for not defending candidates rejected by the Guardians Council in previous elections, for allowing the Intelligence Ministry to dabble in the economy, and indirectly for the deaths of dissident intellectuals during his presidency from 1989 to 1997, killings later traced to intelligence agents.

 

Aides to Mr. Rafsanjani concede that their candidate sometimes lost confrontations with the conservatives, but suggest this time will be different because he wants to polish his legacy. His political stock had fallen so low by 2000 that he failed to win a Parliament seat.

Mr. Rafsanjani believes that we have to provide people with a better life, better education, more welfare, better urban life, and eventually these changes will lead to a bigger change, breaking the obstacle of tradition and the clergy," said Mohammad Atrianfar, a Rafsanjani adviser and editor in chief of the daily Shargh. "Mr. Khatami thought he could do it more directly and that's why he somehow failed. The direct approach in Iran isn't a very good approach because somehow the government rejects this approach by disqualifying candidates, weakening the Parliament and supervising the press."

 

Skip to next paragraph

 

Transcript: Interview With Iranian Presidential Candidate (May 25, 2005) The mere fact that Mr. Rafsanjani gave an interview to The New York Times - his first - and has spoken to a few other foreign news organizations is a sign that he seeks to convince voters that his reach stretches far beyond Iran.

 

The reformists' main props during the past eight years were the crushing election victories that swept Mr. Khatami to power in 1997 and 2001. Though he loosened the social climate, supporters were disappointed by constant assaults on civil liberties, like the shuttering of some 100 newspapers. Ayatollah Khamenei, who already controls the military, the judiciary and the state-run television and radio, is suspected of seeking to control the presidency next, after effectively defanging Parliament last year by eliminating all reformist candidates.

 

A combination of apathy and anger appears particularly rampant among the 66 percent of Iran's 70 million people who are under 30. A huge share of the 48 million eligible voters are expected to deny the government its traditional attempt to use a high turnout to argue that all Iranians support clerical rule.

 

The Interior Ministry has been issuing veiled threats that any formal boycott attempt would be considered a crime, so Iranians avoid the word.

 

"People are tired of lending a democratic face to this regime," said Abdullah Momeni, a student leader. "They don't think the regime will offer any kind of fundamental change to bring democracy."

 

Yet Mr. Rafsanjani's camp thinks it can appeal to this constituency. Mr. Atrianfar reels off numbers like any ward boss. He said about two-thirds of Iranians wanted some manner of reform, with almost half of them seeking complete constitutional change. Only 10 percent like the status quo.

 

The 10 percent, which others describe as up to seven million hard-core conservative voters, are likely to support Mr. Rafsanjani, not least because he is the main cleric left in the race. Mr. Atrianfar suggests that Mr. Rafsanjani can sway some voters in other reformist camps.

 

In his hour-long interview on Monday evening, held in a stunning former royal palace of pale green marble in downtown Tehran, Mr. Rafsanjani did not go so far as to suggest re-establishing ties with Washington. But after detailing a long list of domestic and regional ills caused by the United States, he ventured that it was time to retire the past.

 

"It is not a priority for us, but the current state is not reasonable either," he said, repeating the demand he made as president that the first step should be the release of some $11 billion in Iranian assets frozen since the American Embassy in Tehran was seized for 444 days right after the revolution.

 

Mr. Rafsanjani is a staunch supporter of Iran's developing its nuclear capacity for electric power, medical applications and other uses, but says he opposes nuclear weapons.

 

That contrasts with a sermon at a Friday Prayer in 2001, however, in which he suggested that just one nuclear bomb could solve the problem of Israel's threatening the region with its own nuclear arsenal.

 

On social issues, considered a key among the mass of young voters, he says the government should get out of people's private lives. "Even Islam says one should not interfere in the private lives of people," he said.

 

There is one cornerstone that he would not change: the enforcement of the hijab, or head-covering, for all women. Tehran has been rife with rumors that Mr. Rafsanjani, who holds the religious rank of hojatolislam, one step below ayatollah, would find a way to make hijabs voluntary.

 

"We are Muslims and we enforce Islamic law, which is also in our Constitution," he said.

 

In terms of the economy, Mr. Rafsanjani said he would like to reduce greatly the 44 percent of the economy in public hands. (Others put the government's share as high as 85 percent.) Recent decisions to overturn contracts signed with Turkish companies to improve Iran's overburdened cellphone network and run its new international airport were a mistake, he said.

 

Mr. Rafsanjani's critics - and they are legion - accuse him of repeating old themes and note his difficulties in challenging the radicals when president. He proved unable to unify the currency exchange rate, for example, and lost several battles with the conservatives over who would serve in his cabinet.

 

Among voters, discussions after Friday Prayer in Isfahan, south of Tehran, produced varied results.

 

A retired elementary school teacher said Mr. Rafsanjani was the only candidate who could strengthen the economy, while a young clerical student said eight years was enough and the country needed a younger man.

 

Reza Jaedi, 24, was slouching through Isfahan's main square in a bright yellow shirt, the colorful clothing and his long hair both favorite forms of silent protest.

 

"I'm not going to vote for anyone because it's just a show," he said. "This one comes and this one goes and nothing changes."

[Guest Guest]

تعقيبا على ما جاء في مقاله المستعار

جاء في الموروث الشيعي من ان من علامات اخر الزمان ظهور المهدي (ع) هو ظهور السفياني الذي يقدم لاحتلال العراق والقادم من الشام وكذلك الخراساني القادم من من خراسان ويتقاتلان على ارض العراق وتبقى رايه اليماني القادم من اليمن او الجزيره العربيه هي اصدق الرايات ,

لا ادري ما مدى تطابق مقاله المستعار مع هذا المتوارث الشيعي ؟ وهل هي من علامات الساعه القريبه؟ الله اعلم

[Airedale]

Many Iranians have been denied the right to run for a political office.

 

The purge continues by the hard liners as they hand pick those "best qualified" to run.

 

The ruling clerics can't be thrown out of office as they haven't been elected to their positions. ( unless divine intervention is an acceptable reason )

[Guest Mustefser]

Iranian Mehir hardliner newspaper asking for cracking down Alqaeda and it's Zarqawee terrorists .. Call for the Iraqi governe mnt to forget democracy for a while and wipe out the terrorists.!

 

 

المحافظون الإيرانيون: ليذهب الزرقاوي إلى جهنم

الجمعة 27/5/2005 "الرأي العام" طهران ـ من أحمد أمين: استقبلت الاوساط المحافظة في ايران، نبأ تعرض الاردني ابو مصعب الزرقاوي لاصابات خطيرة بارتياح بالغ، معربة عن الامل باسدال الستار على حياة هذه «الشخصية الارهابية».وتحت عنوان «الزرقاوي الى جهنم وبئس المصير»، كتبت «وكالة مهر للانباء» المحافظة بقلم خبيرها في الشؤون الدولية حسن هاني زادة «اثار بث نبأ اصابة الارهابي الاردني المجرم ابي مصعب الزرقاوي بجروح بالغة، فرحة عارمة لدى الامة الاسلامية ومحبي السلام في العالم سيما الشعب العراقي المظلوم», ورأت «مهر» المعروفة بمواقفها المناهضة للفكر الديني المتطرف لـ «القاعدة» و«طالبان»، ان الهدف من مطالبة جماعة الزرقاوي العالم بالدعاء له «بأمل ان يشفى من جروحه وينهض مرة اخرى من فراش الموت لاكمال مهمته الاجرامية القذرة في قتل الابرياء وتفخيخ السيارات واثارة الفتنة الطائفية في العراق».

ورغم الاتهامات الاميركية للنظام الاسلامي الحاكم في ايران بدعمه للارهاب، الا ان تقاطعا ايديولوجيا حادا بين الفكر العقائدي لهذا النظام، حتى بقواه اليمينية المتشددة، مع تنظيم «القاعدة» وخلاياه وخطوطه المختلفة فضلا عن نظام «طالبان السابق»، يجعل من الصعب بمكان التصديق بوجود تعاون بين الجانبين حتى وان التقيا في شكل المشاعر حيال الادارة الاميركية.

ووفقا لمذكرات المسؤول الامني في ما يسمى بـ «جيش قاعدة الاسلام العالمي» سيف العدل، فان الاجراءات التي اتخذتها طهران ومنها اعتقال العشرات من افراد الزرقاوي وتسليم العديد منهم الى حكوماتهم والاحتفاظ باخرين لمحاكمتهم محليا، اربك وافشل 75 في المئة من خطط هذا التنظيم,

وتكهنت «مهر» بان «هلاك الزرقاوي وذهابه الى جهنم لن يغير من استراتيجية اتباعه البهائم المتسللين من وراء الحدود، الا انها تعتبر ضربة قاصمة وقاتلة لهذه الزمرة المارقة التي تصول وتجول وتذبح الناس وتعبث بامن العراق الجريح», وذكرت «ان نشر مثل هذا الخبر من قبل اتباع المجرم الزرقاوي ربما يكون خديعة هدفها جر العالم الى متاهات اعلامية من شأنها ان ترسم صورة اسطورية لهذا السفاح، لكن مع ذلك فان الشعب العراقي يأمل ان يسمع نبأ هلاك الزرقاوي بعد ان سمع نبأ تعرضه لاصابات خطيرة».

وتعتبر معظم التيارات الدينية الاصلاحية والمحافظة منها، الزرقاوي «انموذجا صارخا للعقلية الجاهلية المتخلفة التي ما زالت تحمل الحقد والكراهية تجاه الشعب العراقي الابي بسبب انتماء غالبية هذا الشعب الى مذهب معين».

واشارت «مهر» الى الشكوك التي ما زالت تحوم حول شخصية الزرقاوي واتباعه، وتساءلت «هل الزرقاوي اصلا صنيعة الاستخبارات الاميركية والغربية وبعض الانظمة العربية وتكوّن في احضان هذه الدول لضرب وحدة العراق، ام انه مناضل حقيقي دخل العراق لمقارعة الاميركيين؟», واوضحت «اذا كانت الفرضية الثانية، حقيقية، فثمة سؤال يطرح نفسه في هذا المجال الا وهو: لماذا لم يذهب الزرقاوي الى الاراضي المحتلة لمناصرة الشعب الفلسطيني؟ ولماذا يفجر السيارات المفخخة في المساجد والمطاعم والاسواق والمقاهي الشعبية والشوارع المكتظة بالناس الابرياء في العراق ويقتل خيرة ابنائه الذين قارعوا الطغاة والظلم والاضطهاد على مدى عقود من الزمن؟».

وتابعت «الم يكن من الاولى ان يساهم الزرقاوي ومجموعته في نضال الشعب الفلسطيني الذي ينتمي اليه ويقوم بتحرير الاراضي الفلسطينية المحتلة من براثن الصهاينة».

واجابت مهر على تساؤلاتها بالقول: «اذن لا شك فان الزرقاوي ليس مناضلا بل جبان وحاقد وعميل مندس من قبل استخبارات بعض الدول العربية المجاورة للعراق لمنع هذا الشعب من تشكيل حكومة منتخبة منبثقة عن اغلبية الشعب العراقي».

واستبعدت انجرار الشعب العراقي وراء المخططات التي وضعها الاعداء للنيل من وحدته و«رغم كل هذه المحاولات فان الشعب العراقي وانطلاقا من وعيه ومعرفته بأساليب وألاعيب القوى الاقليمية الرامية لزعزعة الاستقرار في العراق، ادرك حجم المؤامرات ولم ينزلق الى الفتنة الطائفية التي يثيرها الزرقاوي وعصابته الاجرامية وازلام النظام البعثي المقبور والقوى المتسترة عليه».

ودعت «مهر» حكومة ابراهيم الجعفري الى استخدام اشد الاساليب عنفا مع انصار الزرقاوي وعدم التقيد بمفهوم الديموقراطية «من هذا المنطلق فان على الحكومة العراقية ايضا الا تتقيد بقواعد اللعبة الديموقراطية بحذافيرها في الوقت الراهن، ولو لفترة قصيرة، وتفرض احكاما عرفية وتسمح لوزير الداخلية الجديد الذي يعتبر واحدا من ابناء الشعب العراقي المخلصين والمضحين، وقلما انجبت الامة العربية رجلا مثله، ان يضرب رؤوس الارهابيين بقبضة حديدية ويقضي على العصابات الارهابية التي تتبرقع بمسميات اسلامية ووطنية في حين انها تقوم باعمال الخطف والقتل والتدمير في العراق».

وخلصت الى القول: «على هذا الاساس فان سقوط الزرقاوي في الدرك الاسفل من النار يعتبر فرصة ثمينة للقضاء على مجموعته الارهابية ، لان موت زعيمها من شأنه ان يثبط من معنوياتها في المرحلة الحالية ، ويمنع فلوله من لملمة جراحهم واستئناف عملياتهم الارهابية ضد الشعب العراقي المظلوم».

[Airedale]

Iranian Mehir hardliner newspaper asking for cracking down Alqaeda and it's Zarqawee  terrorists .. Call for the Iraqi governe mnt to forget democracy for a while and wipe out the terrorists.!

 

Here is a comment by the Iraqi blogger, Hammorabi;

Zarqawi is dead

 

The Jordanian thug Fadhel Nazal Al-Khalayla (Zarqawi) 38 years has died.

 

He received treatment from Arab doctors who were not very experts and lacking intensive care equipments which he needed for his puncture in the right lung. His wounds infection gets resistance to the antibiotics. He had what is called septicemia which is according to doctors an infection of the blood resulted from infected wound. Zarqawi's systems started to fail including his kidney and liver.

 

He died and now in the hands of the Keepers of the badWord in its worst level.

 

His family in Jordan preparing and expected to do Fataha (funeral for him soon).

 

Jordan again put itself in the opposite front of the civilized world and with the terrorist.

 

The Iraqis and all other civilised people should protest strongly against any funeral events for Zarqawi in Jordan

 

This news verbal and is yet to be confirmed; so wait and see for now and we will get the details soon when we receive them. If any one got details please put them in comment section.

 

http://hammorabi.blogspot.com/

 

It may be true.