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What is the real story about Shia reaction?

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Salim, if I may ask, because your opinion on this question was not clear to me.

 

Do you believe that the majority of the Sunni Arabs will join with your vision of Iraq? (And again, I do not question about the Ba'athi and the terrorists--they will plague any free people--and especially Iraqi).

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It occurs to me that Salim is not the one single Iraqi intelligent enough to discuss Iraq with western people who only have a vague notion of how things are. We western people may not be nearly as wise as we think we are. Perhaps it is just that Salim's English is good and other Iraqi do not think I will listen--I do not know about other people, but I try to listen.

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George B, as I have said before, just because some crackpot nutjob writes it down that does not make it true. I have researched several of your "writers" and have (surprise) found most of them have a suspect (dare I say MARXIST) agenda.

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I am very sympathetic to Sistani's desire for direct popular elections for the interim government and the constitutional committee. In a perfect world, this would be the best way. Unfortunately, neither the world nor the political situation inside or outside of Iraq is perfect right now.

 

The fact is that proper popular elections will take TIME. A census must be taken, a voter registration system implemented, political districts mapped out, polling stations selected, voter poll assignments made, election officials selected, staff hired and trained, a counting and audit process designed, equipment purchased, programmed and deployed. And those are just some of the logistical issues. Also, the elections must be free of coercion and intimidation. How can this be assured in the current security environment? Also, what about the political process itself? Party organization and registration, leadership identification and development, candidate nominations and selection. There must be an organized system to decide who gets placed on the final ballot.

 

Let’s pretend we had an election today where candidates just signed up to run. How long would that ballot be? How would voters react to a ballot with 2,000 names on it? How could the people vet the candidate’s leadership skills, their credentials and positions on critical issues? I love popular democracy but, just as BahirJ was making his great points about timing and location regarding the transfer of security power, we must have similar concerns with political power. In an environment that has lacked any true organic method for developing democratic leadership from the local level up, I wonder who the population considers their leaders to be? Those tribal and church leaders that managed to somehow survive Saddam? Whoever managed to work “on behalf of the people” with Saddam?

 

Iraqis do need to have more control over these democratic development processes. Americans and Bush need this as much as Iraqis need this, and frankly all those fighting the "resistance" need the transfer of sovereignty to take place relatively short term (as I suspect there is a growing population of Iraqis do mistakenly think the US does have Imperial designs on Iraq). But, popular elections will take too long considering the political and security climate. It could be that a modification of the US "caucus" method is really the best solution for right now. Popular elections will be held. They simply cannot be held by June.

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Briefly translating the above:

ترجمه مختصره لما ورد في اعلاه

______________________________________________________

تعليق جورج

خبر_ رحل الدين الشيعي المهم في تعليقات نشرت السبت انه لايوافق على اسس الخطه الامريكيه للتحول السياسي في العراق ويؤكد على ان الحكومه المؤقته يجب ان تكون منتخبه. متحديا عرض اداره بوش بتسليم السلطه بحلول حزيران

 

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تعليق جورج

في تعليق لمكتب السستاني يوم السبت على تتخفضاته على الخطه الامريكيه"

قبل كل شئ قانون العراق للمرحله القادمه يتم انجازه من قبل الاداره ومجلس الخكم. هذه العمليه تنقصها الشرعيه , حيث يجب ان تقدم الى ممثلي الشعب للمصادقه عليها"

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تعليق باهر

هناك مغالطه كبيره حول دور المرجعيه في النجف.. و الشيعه في العراق واخوانهم في ايران. علينا ان ندرك ان الشيعه في العراق لديهم فهم مختلف.العراقيون يؤمنون ان التجربه الايرانيه لها اخطائها و نواقصها

هناك اكثر من نصف مليون عراقي لاجئ في ايران وعانوا الكثير من تلك التجربه ونواقصها

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نعليق جورج

 

 

باهر

هذه معلومه مهمه. اامل ان اتعلم اكثر حول هذه المنطقه و دياناتها وحضاراتها.

اعتقد ان الكثير من الاستراتيجيين العاملين مع بوش بعرفون ذلك ولكنهم يهملونها بسبب خوفهم من ايران. لذلك يخشون الانتخابات في العراق

لهذا السبب انا اعتقد ان بعض القده الامريكان يرغبون تماما بتنصيب الجلبي. انهم يعتقدون ان المؤسسه الدينيه ضعيفه وان العراقيين سوف يرحبون بحكومه تنصبها امريكا اعترافا بفضل الامريكان

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تعليق جورج

 

مقال من تركيا

يتحدث المقال عن الجوانب السلبيه من زياره بوش من وجه نضر كاتب تركي"احسان احراري"

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تعليق مترجم

 

جورج

تستطيع التعرف على وجهه نضر العراقيين من حلال قرائه مقال ابو حسين.

بالنسبه للسستاني, لااعتقد ان موقفه الؤيد للانتخاب ات هو موقف مضاد للاهداف الامريكيه النهائيه بتحقيق النضام الديموقراطي في العراق. انه على العكس.. هذا تماما ما يريده الامريكان. السؤال اذا ما كانوا فعلا مستعدون لتحقيقها كما طلب السستاني

 

________________________________________________________________________________

___________________

تعليق باهر

 

جورج

شكرا للملاحظه.اعتقد ان الامريكان الان اكثر اهتماما باعتدال الشيعه العراقين بالرغم من كل ما عانوه من جرائم صدام وعصابته.

اتمنى ان تشارك قرائتي لما قاله نائب وزير الدفاع بول ويلفوتز في خطابه في جامعه جورج تاون

http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/200...secdef0833.html

 

احب ان اشير الى انطباعاته عن احد هؤلاء القاده الشيعه السيد عبد العزيز الحكيم اخ الشيد محمد باقر الي قتل في انفجار النجف.

"لقد كان مذهلا مشاعره الانسانيه و الايمان الذي يلتزم به وعائلته نحو الحريه الدينيه.لقد حدثني عن ما كان من اخوه المرحوم من طلبه من الحكومه الايرانيه ان يسمحوا للمسيجين من الاسرى العراقيين للتجمع للاحتفال باعياد الميلاد وكيف ان اخوه الذي هو رجل دين شيعي , شاركهم بالاختفال"

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تعليق لي

 

يبدوا لي ان افتراضات الاداره الامريكيه كانت غير دقيقه وانهم يواجهون الحقيقه الان. انهم الان يعلمون ان المشكله ليست في تحول العراق الى دوله دينيه بل ان المشكله تتمثل في تخوف السنه العرب من الشيعه العرب وفي الخوف من مشاركتهم في حكومه واحده.

في الامم الحره يكون التنحدي الحقيقي

1- كيف نضمن ان لا يعيق وجود كاكم قوي عمليه التول الديمقراطي الحر

2- كيف نضمن حقوق الاقليات و تعاونها

وفي حاله العراق هناك سؤال ثالث يتمثل في الطريقه التي يمكن بها حث الاقليه على مشاركه الاغلبيه وتكييف نفسهم مع الوضع الجديد.

 

 

سؤال اخر.

ذكرت موضوع ابو حسن , اين اجده

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تعليق سول

 

لي

تجده تحت

http://baghdadee.ipbhost.com/index.php?sho...w=findpost&p=79 <http://baghdadee.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=27&view=findpost&p=79>

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تعليق ضيف-افيروس

 

اعتقد ان الوضع يمكن تلخيصه بمقطوعه لكاتب

"الديمقراطيه هي اكثر من جعل ذئبين وشاه يجلسون على مائده واحده"

لكي تنجح الديمقراطيه هناك يجب الاعتناء بحقوق الاقليات. ضمانات لاتجعل الانتخاب المرجع الوحيد.

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تعليق سالم

 

هل نتوقع من اولئك الذين علمونا ان " الديمقراطيه هي حق الشعوب بحكم انفسهم" انهم يقولون لنا الان انها " دع الاخرين يقرروا لك ما ينفعك"

المساله ليست حول كون الاغلبيه الشيعيه ستحكم. هذا لن يحصل ابدا تحت دستور ديمقراطي. الخيار الفيدرالي سوف يمنع ذلك من الحصول. اخذين بنضر الاعتبار ان الشيعه ليسوا الاغلبيه المطلقه.

اما بالنسبه للسستاني, فان الحكم الذي اصدره كان بان لجنه صياغه الدستور يجب ان تكون ممثله للشعب وان الانتخاب المباشر هو الطريق الشرعي الوحيد لذلك التمثيل.

اليست هذه هي اول المبادئ للديمقراطيه الحقيقيه. ولماذا لاتجوز عندما يكون الامر متعلقا بالعراق؟

بالنسبه لغير الشيعه, لااعتقد ان الامر متعلق بالاقليه, العرب السنه ليس لديهم تحفضات حول ذلك, جلال الطالباني تحدث عن تعديل العمليه بما يتناسب مع راي السستاني. المسيحيون لا يعارضون.

المساله هي ان بعض السنه العرب بعتقدون ان مثل هذه الانتخابات سوف تباعد من امكانيه سرقتهم مره اخرى لمصير العراق وتجعله حلما مستحيلا

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تعليق افيروس

 

سالم, مع جهدي ان اكون مختصرا, ربما لم اكن واضحا عند ذكري للاقليات. انا لم اكن اقصد جعل الشيعه امام العرب. في اي وضع يكون فيه الاقنراع خكما, يصبح حقوق الاقليه في خطر. اذا اقترع عدد كبير من اهل الريف فانهم سوف يؤثرون على اهل المدينه.

كان يجب ان اضيف ان الديمقراطيه هي دكتاتوريه الاغلبيه.

ما نخشاه ان دستور يقره الاغلبيه سوف يكون لصاحهم.

انا اعترف ان جعل المجلس الحكم يفعلها هي عمل غير ديمقلراطي, انا اقترح حل وسط ان يتم وضع دستور من ممثلين منتخبين من مختلف من المناطق ثم يجري الاقتراع عليه.

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تعليق سالم

افيروس

هذا بالضبط ماتنادي اغلبيه الشعب العراقي . المساله هي في هل يكون هؤلاء معينين ام منتخبين.

ليس هناك من تحوف من كون الشيعه سيجعلون الدستور يسير لصالحهم, الدستور يحتاج للاغابيه المطلقه والشيعه ليسو كذلك.

اذن لماذا نجعل هذه المساله اكبر من حجمها ولا نسمح للمقلين ان ياتوا عن طريق الانتخاب؟

اذا بدئنا العمليه بطريقه غير شرعيه اليوم, فانه سياتي لاحقا من يحجج بذلك للتنصل منها. هذا ما يشير له السستاني.

انا شخصيا لااجد الانتخاب احسن اسلوب ولكني ساؤيده كاحسن وسيله تستطيع الصمود امام الزمن.. طبعا مع الاخذ بان الموافقه يجب ان تكون بالاغلبيه المطلقه.

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تعليق افيروس

سالم

شكرا للاجابه.. انت متاكد من شء نحن في الخارج غير متاكدين منه. انا لازلت ارى نسب للشيعه تتراوح بين 55-70%.

انت تقول "ليس هناك من تحوف من كون الشيعه سيجعلون الدستور يسير لصالحهم" نحن في امريكا لا نؤمن بمثل هذه التاكيدات. لذا نحن ننضر للتاكيدات من باب الشك , ليس من كونها صادره من شيعه, ولكننا نشعر انهم كثيري العدد بحيث سياخذون استقلالهم السياسي.

من وجهه نضر امريكيه, هو ان ياخذ العراقيون زمام المبادره ويعدموا كل ما يريد التحالف عمله. ولكننا سنفرح جدا اذا ماريانا العراقيون ينادون بالحريه ويعملون لاجلها.. هكذا ناس هم من يصنع الديمقراطيه.

ملاحظتكم"اذا بدئنا العمليه بطريقه غير شرعيه اليوم, فانه سياتي لاحقا من يحجج بذلك للتنصل منها" فيها الكثير من الحكمه

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Lee,

I did not mean to offend you. The point I was trying to make is that political strategic concerns will inevitably have a bigger influence than commitments to certain political philosophies.

 

I have been reading some of the conservative papers and many of them are already accusing Sistani of being an Iranian puppet and they are claiming that he should be ignored. The Bush administration fears the possibility that Iraq will develop warm relationships with Syria and Iran. Will the Shia majority recognize Israel and ignore the Palestinian struggle? Many of us who were not under the illusion that this invasion was about “liberation” instead it is about projecting power and establishing military bases in Iraq and preparing the Iraqis for another confrontation with Iran.

 

The United States has the capabilities to have successfully assisted the new Iraq, instead our leaders wanted to save money (taxes were given back to people. During every war the President always requests higher taxes to assist with rebuilding, that did not happen for Iraq) because the desire to save the military for Iran and Syria. There is a reason the United States did not have the traditional Army (560,000 strong) with engineers and builders and guards for Iraq…they are not interested in rebuilding a nation unless they can be sure that it will be obedient.

 

Mr. Penn,

How you know the other authors were “Marxist” seems highly suspicious, they may be Leftists or liberals or even Libertarians but not Marxist. Again, what you have decided to do is attack the messengers and try to deflect others from reading the message.

 

I hope and pray everything happens justly in Iraq, but I do know that misrepresenting our government’s intentions does not help those struggling to control their own country. Many of us have relatives who came from Latin America where many leaders were overthrown only to be replaced with other “strong-men” all in the name of “liberation and democracy.”

 

As far as I can see, the United States only began to care about Iraq was when it did not win its war with Iran. The United States allowed Hussein to get away with many human rights abuses against the Kurds and Shia because they wanted a “strong-man” that could keep attacking Iran.

 

Revisiting Cold War Coups and Finding Them Costly

 

Conservatives who have intense influence within the Bush Administration write all of the following articles:

 

Pentagon official: US may take action against Syria

 

Bashing Bashar

 

Whose War?: A neoconservative clique seeks to ensnare our country in a series of wars that are not in America’s interest.

 

Letter to President Bush on the War on Terrorism, September 20, 2001

 

Calls to Attack Syria Come from a Familiar Choir of Hawks

 

Is Iran Next?

 

Iraq Wrecked, Is Iran Next?

 

Is Iran next after Iraq?

 

Is Iran Next on Washington's Hit List?

 

Tehran is a year or two away from acquiring nuclear weapons. Is the Bush administration willing to go to war -- again -- to stop it?

 

Is Iran next on Bush hit list?

 

A Clean Break:

A New Strategy for Securing the Realm

Participants in the Study Group on "A New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000:"

 

Coping with Crumbling States:

A Western and Israeli Balance of Power Strategy for the Levant

The Stakes for the Region and the United States

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George,

I would remind you that very long comments might ruin our post to Iraqi readers..

Once more , I am giving you two hours to publish a link to your repectful message ..That is before deleting it

 

Thanks to your support and perticipation

 

جورج,

ارغب بتذكيركم ان الملاحضات الطويله تؤثر على سهوله القرائه لبعض زائرينا في العراق. سامنحكم ساعتين لنشر تعليق يشير الى رابط لمقالتكم المخترمه.

شكرا لدعمكم ومساهمتكم

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Thank you Mutergem for your work on translation.

I hope what I have said was worth the work.

 

Machine translation - التّرجمة الآليّة

 

شكرًا متيرجيم لعملك على التّرجمة .

آمل ما قد قلت كان يستحقّ العمل .

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Guest Cool Breeze
Anyone want my research on the invasion of Iran?

 

No thank you, considering the leftist rags you garner your research from, they wouldn't contribute much of any value or substance to the excellent discussion that was going on before you decided to take it in another direction.

 

Salim, could you expand on this statement?

There is no way that a majority constitution would be a nursery for any sort of dictatorship, including Islamic government..

 

Why/How are you certain this wouldn't/couldn't happen?

 

Regards

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No thank you, considering the leftist rags you garner your research from, they wouldn't contribute much of any value or substance to the excellent discussion that was going on before you decided to take it in another direction.

The Weekly Standard, the American Conservative, the Jerusalem Post, the New York Times. The Project for the New American Century (P.N.A.C.), Time, BBC, the CATO Institute, World Net Daily and the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies’ are hardly “leftist rags”.

 

Why would you make a statement that is so wrong? Really.

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A Shiite challenge divides Iraqis

 

US backs elections by March 2005; a key Shiite wants them by July 2004.

 

BAGHDAD – The pace - and nature - of a democratic reform plan announced just two weeks ago is being challenged by arguably the most powerful figure in Iraq today.

 

Ayatollah Ali Sistani, a key leader of the country's Muslim Shiite community, wants direct national elections to create a provisional government.

 

The US-appointed Governing Council of top Iraqi officials is divided over whether to oppose the cleric or finesse his demand with partial local elections.

 

The dispute highlights the emerging contours of a power struggle between the majority Shiite population and other Iraqi factions. The outcome of the latest challenge could determine how soon elected representatives will take charge of Iraq, and whether it will happen before next year's US presidential elections.

 

more:

A Shiite challenge divides Iraqis

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Salim, after reading your replies and an article posted on Hammorabi's blog about Shistanui, my fears are somewhat allayed. But realize that, like Afghanistan, the choice should be Iraq's. We in America have been lucky in that since the beginning of our Republic, the losers in elections have always accepted the result and gone to work on the next election, two years for congress and four years for president. The military has never been involved in politics. This is what we wish for Iraq.

 

Several sources tell me that Iraqis have a true sense of country above and beyond their membership in a religious or ethnic group. If this is true, then as long as a constitution insures that no GROUP can dominate another, trust can be built in the elction system.

 

The key point you have reiterated is electing some Iraqis to write the constitution. In Afghanistan, this was easy, done by Afghans using a customary method. Even then, it took two years to get a government in. I am not sure that Iraq has any such method, and, as Lee says, elections need logistics. One simply has to know who can vote and be assured that all who vote are eligable and that they vote just once. This is very difficult. Even in america it is often said that the election day motto of the Democratic party is "vote early, vote often."

 

Once more on Chalabi: I was not aware that he was well-liked in Iraq. I know some consider him an outsider. Remember, i said it was my intuition; he just didn't appear entirely honest to me. I felt that he was feeding American and British intelligence what he thought they wanted to hear. In his television appearences, he did the same. Then there is the question of hiws Jordanian banking career. Finally, he went to Iraq even though the US military asked him to wait. many saw this as a move to grab power. I just believe that there are less questionable men in Iraq. But that is just opinion.

 

If it pleases you, I would be interested in knowing if you think that the descrition of Shia on Hammorabi is accurate.

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Guest Guest
"You can shoot holes in the idea," says Mowafak al-Rubaie, a British educated former member of the Shiite Dawa party, "but it's better to have an election, even if its quick and dirty, than to have no election at all. If we have another body, this time the Transitional National Assembly, and it does not have the legitimacy of public support, then we might as well continue with the Governing Council."

 

Many Sunnis oppose a nationwide election which could result in an assembly dominated by Shiites, who make up 60 percent of the population.

 

"The [mainly Sunni] Kurds do not have much concern. But the Arab Sunnis are really worried about an enlarged role of the Shiites. That needs to be taken into consideration," Mr. Othman says. "We should reach a formula that doesn't threaten anybody."

 

Quuting from Goerge's link ..

I think the idea is not having a majority of Shia in the assemply, becuase this would happen in both ways, elected or appointed.

Iraq is geographically divided as per factions concerned. The only mix is baghdad.

So practicly , if the election happen per governate basis, as the agreed plan stted, the Arab Sunnis will have their fair share in both ways in the governates that have majority sunnis.

 

I think those who objected the election "some Baathist and Wahabee's background" , are indeed trying to push a real legitimate process inorder to back later off it . As Salim mentioned, based on being a non legitimate American forced one.

Most of those Iraqis who had not accepted the GC formation , kept arguing that it should be comming through election process, now , same guys are saying we should not have election for the interm council. Isn't that ironic?

 

If it is based on election, even a rough dirty one, then no fashist "Baathist or Wahabee's" would have the reasoning saying it was illegalle

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Have a look to this article by THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/04/opinion/04FRIE.html?th

Might need registration, it is free though!

 

I like his

We must not try to abort this unfolding discussion among Iraqis. In fact, we should be proud of it. We are fostering a much-needed free political dialogue in the heart of the Arab world. Our job is to make sure there is enough security for this critical discussion, so I would bring every U.S. soldier from Europe and Japan to Iraq to make this work.

 

There is no more important political project for the U.S. in the world today than seeing whether Iraq can get from Saddam to Jefferson without going through Khomeini. 

 

Have a look to what extent those in the academy might comply with what we are discussing here.

I would say that with such great and deep interest by the Americans, I am sure there will be on another British mistake!

 

I am at work and will reply to other questions on my launch time ;)

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