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Guest moron99

Salim, the above guest was me ... forgot to enter screen name before clicking the add-reply button.

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I think the Sunni minority was misled by their ruling baathist party leaders.

If the october 15th plan to vote on the constitution was scrapped in order to appease the minority...

the result is the old saying ;

"Give them an inch...an they will take a mile

ie

Given a chance to regroup, they will argue that when it comes to power sharing, they, being the minority, have a historical leg to stand on. That must be honored and respected...ect....ect...blah blah blah...yeah.

 

They will argue to maintain the hold on power. They will not settle for less than 51% controlling interest in the government. They will get their chance again after the October vote. They can request, in the next year or two, a second constitutional convention be held

I'm sure there is an article in the current constitution that they can point to as a legal leg to stand on.

 

As far as putting a seal of approval on the current upcomming October decision;

 

 

IRAQ: AL-SISTANI PLANS PRO-CONSTITUTION FATWA

Baghdad, 23 Sept. (AKI) - Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is planning to issue a fatwa or religious edict ordering Shiites to approve the new draft constitution in a referendum next month, the New York Times reports. The American daily quoted an aide working in al-Sistani's office in Najaf, who said the senior cleric had told him he would issue the fatwa in the next few days. Al-Sistani's edicts encouraged many Shiites to take part in the January elections by telling them it was their religious duty to vote.

 

The fatwa could boost the chances of success of the 15 October referendum in which the Iraqi people are called on to approve the draft constitution.

.....

.....Sunni leaders and clerics have said they will boycott the referendum and various terrorist formations have threatened those who go to the polls.

 

For some time, al-Qaeda has called on Sunni Muslims to boycott the referendum to accept or reject the controversial document but this view has not been widely embraced by Iraq's Sunnis, who form roughly 20 percent of the population.

 

Almost all the pro-Baathist armed groups in Iraq, the Islamists who are not part of the al-Qaeda network and even one that has links with the Jordanian leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, have issued several statements in which they stress the need to go to the urns to vote 'no' in the referendum.

 

 

link

 

So the real votes that "count" in the referendum are the number that turn out to vote in the Sunni dominated provinces

Here is my take on the outcomes of the three western majority Sunni provinces...

 

If the turnout is low, then the al Queda types are still in a position to repress the population.

 

If the turnout is high,

And the results are a majority NO vote, then the Baathists/sadamee may have a leg to stand on and may be in a position to work out deals with the majority to regain power..... using democracy. Could the Baathists / sadamee even sell out the al Queda types if amnesty talks take a generous turn for the old regime members?.

 

If the turnout is high

And the results are a majority YES vote,

Then the Baathists /sadamee and al Queda types have nothing to lose with the current alliance with each other. They may continue to fight to the bitter civil war end.

Could Sunni ( YES votes ) tribal alliances with the new government lead to a bitter internal civil war of Sunni against sadamee Sunni?

 

The Iraqi government forming alliances on the family and tribal level will be the next most important step when November arrives in Iraq IMHO

 

... Then I most likely am wrong on all accounts as the above is mere ranting speculation of course. I by no means am an expert in Iraqi internal affairs.

 

Much is uncertain .....but this;

 

The constitution will be approved.

How they protect,defend and execute it will be up to the people at the tribal level.

 

 

 

on edit found this FATWA article;

 

IRAQ: 'NO' VOTE ON CONSTITUTION AGAINST SHARIA SAYS AL-ZARQAWI GROUP

Baghdad, 23 Sept. (AKI) - The Sharia [islamic law] division of the al-Qaeda in Iraq group has issued a fatwa saying that "participating in the referendum on the Iraqi constitution - even voting 'no' - means violating the Sharia."

........

....

...

link

 

So, two Fatwa's are issued....

What side will Allah be forced to choose ?

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ابن السيد علي السستاني ينفي بان والده افتى بشأن التصويت على الدستور

 

نفى محمد علي السيستاني نجل السيد علي السيستاني في حديث خاص لاحدى المواقع العراقية على ان السيد علي السيستاني أفتى بضرورة التصويت بنعم في الأستفتاء على الدستور المقبل في 15 كانون كانون اول المقبل . فقد اكد محمد علي السيستاني ان الحوزة لا تتدخل في السياسة وأن علي السيستاني لا يتكلم ولا يتدخل بهكذا امور وأن التصريحات التي تصدر هي من أناس يريدون تبنى هذه التصريحات وقد أكد ان الحوزة ليست من النوع الذي يتدخل في هكذا امور.

 

 

As I expected, The son of Alsystani deny any call by his father to accept the draft. He siad that such things are political and should be decided by people.!

I think those who claimed such call are working to creat a natural reaction among Sunni Arab to go the other way. We need to be very carefull in taking any news for grant as the real battel is just tweeks from now.. It will be very tense. Look to the most conversative Suadi PRINCE who started it in support for Saddamees and Alqaeda call to stop the process.. Be tuned!!

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Today on Aliraqia TV there was an interesting debate about the constitution, live for more than one hour, Open and transperent with a crowd of normal Iraqis against three of the constitution writing committe. One from Kurdish list, One from Shia Coalition and one from Alawee Secular list, Judg Wael Latif.

One of the public who was an Iraqi lady, was asking proudly about the citizenship right of the sons of Iraqi women who is married to an non Iraqi that the new draft is granting for first time in Arab political history. Iraq might become the first country in ME that agree with this CEDAW regulation.

I was expecting the secular representative to be in sympathy with. What happened was way more that expected.

Without being asked about his opinion, the Alawaee rep went to declare that this was a bad item and we should never accept it. He also said that there was a big discussion with others "Kurds and Shia" who wanted it. When it came to Shia rep , she defended this so deep illustrating why we need to have this in the constitution.!!!

 

I Iraq I no longer be able to know who is who!

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http://www.nahrain.com/d/news/05/10/03/nhr0103a.pdf

 

Very important development.. Ayatoulah Alhaeree "Asaderees spritual leader issued a cree that make it up to the people to go to the referundom. He also added that it is not a religious duty any more to participate as the current draft is not fully complying with what is wanted! But he is leaving to people to decide if they want to go for it.

 

Alhaeree is based in Qum - Iran and he is a radical Shia believing in Weliat faqih.

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Guest Guest_bahirj

New development in the voting for the constitution. A clear definition to the "voters" are decided upon by the assembly. "Voters" are the registered voters not the "on the voting day voters" this will make it harder for Sunni to block the pass of the 2/3 voters in 3 govenorate condition. ...

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I don't know if this would make any difference.. We know very well that those who are calling for the draft denouncing are committing a political suicide , something similiar to what their Alqaeda afflliats doing. The draft is getting a huge momentum among most Iraqis , even those who might have serious disagreement on some of it's points.

 

Any how seems to me that radical Sunni arab have nothing but to call for bycotting the voting, though they are still waiting for Alsader say on it.

Last week Alsder said that he will wait till last day to give his party opinion and he would rely on both Hawaza's , The spoken " Alhaeari" and the silent " Alsystani".. Now Alhaeri make it so unclear by Saying he leave it to people. I am sure Syatni will step with same thing. So our Sadamist friends will be hanging in the air waiting .

Let us wait with them and see.

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think this last amendment should be revisted. We either accept "registered" for both or we accept "Voting" for both.

We should not give the Bathist a way to claim that this was not a push to corner voting.

There is no harm of rejecting the draft if there is more than 15% votes against it.

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think this last amendment should be revisted. We either accept "registered" for both or we accept "Voting" for both.

We should not give the Bathist a way to claim that this was not a push to corner voting.

There is no harm of rejecting the draft if there is more than 15% votes against it.

I see they reversed their decision.

They will go back to the original vote procedure.

 

 

 

Iraq Reverses Much-Derided Election Change

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051005/ap_on_...aq_constitution

 

I finally saw what they did. It was a foolish idea to change the rule.

Now that they have gone back to the original format,

They will see the constitution referendum will still pass.

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Very intersting poll by an Iraqi non profit agency run by sunni Arab Scholar Dr. Alhafid who was the planning Minister in The Ebrahimee governemnt "called Alawee's ".

about only 8% are against the draft. More than 50% are with the draft even in the Sunni Triangle provinces!

The report went to explain this as a good sign that denounce the fears raised by some media in the west of civil war possibility in Iraq.

 

استطلاع في بغداد: 79% من العراقيين مع الدستور و8% ضده

 

 

بغداد ـ رويترز: أفاد مدير واحدة من المؤسسات القليلة التي تجري استطلاعات للرأي في العراق امس، بان العراقيين انهكتهم الفوضى في البلاد ويعلق معظمهم امالهم على اعتماد دستور جديد كخطوة أولى نحو اقرار النظام.

وقال مهدي الحافظ مدير المركز العراقي للتنمية والحوار الدولي ان أحدث استطلاع رأي اجراه المركز كشف عن تأييد واسع النطاق لمشروع الدستور الذي سيطرح للاستفتاء في 15 الشهر الحالي حتى في معاقل قوة جماعات العرب السنة.

 

وأضاف الحافظ الذي كان وزيرا للتخطيط في حكومة رئيس الوزراء السابق أياد علاوي «الشعب العراقي يريد الانتهاء من العملية السياسية بأسرع ما يمكن.. فهو يريد انشاء حكومة ومؤسسات عادية». وأضاف «العراقيون يريدون لهذا الوضع أن ينتهي.. لا يمكن بقاء هذا الوضع».

 

وبات في حكم المؤكد الان تقريبا أن يقر الدستور في الاستفتاء بعد ان استخدمت الجماعات الشيعية أغلبيتها في البرلمان الحالي لاعتماد قواعد جديدة هدفها احراج المعارضة. وقال الحافظ «الجزء الذي فاجأني هو النسبة المئوية لمؤيدي الاستفتاء. لم أتوقع ذلك».

 

وشمل الاستطلاع الذي أجراه الحافظ 3625 عراقيا في الفترة بين 14 و19 سبتمبر (أيلول) وأظهر ان 79 في المائة يؤيدون الدستور الجديد ويعارضه ثمانية في المائة. ولم يجب الباقون عن السؤال.

 

وكان التأييد كبيرا على نحو خاص في المناطق الكردية الشمالية والمناطق الجنوبية التي يهيمن عليها الشيعة. غير ان الحافظ قال ان نسبة التأييد زادت على 50 في المائة ايضا في المحافظات الوسطى ذات الاغلبية السنية، مشيرا الى ان ذلك مؤشر على ان الانقسام السني الشيعي ليس بالحجم الذي يخشاه كثيرون.

 

وتابع «هذه مبالغات من جانب النخبة السياسية التي تسعى للوصول للسلطة ومن جانب وسائل الاعلام الغربية والمحللين.. اذا نزلت الشارع فلن يكون بمقدورك التمييز بين سني وشيعي.. فجميعنا مختلطون». واضاف ان معظم من سيصوتون بـ«لا» على الدستور لديهم أسباب تتراوح بين غياب السيادة العراقية وتردي الامن في البلاد، فيما يرى عدد أقل بكثير ممن سيعارضون الدستور ان هناك بواعث قلق سياسية واضحة خاصة بنص الدستور.

 

وسلم الحافظ بان كثيرا ممن شملهم الاستطلاع قد يكونون متأثرين بالزعماء الدينيين الذين دعوا لتأييد الدستور. ولكنه قال ان مركزه يضم 45 عاملا مدربين تدريبا جيدا وانه واثق من ان النتيجة ستكون دقيقة.

 

وتابع «الناس يشعرون بأنهم صاروا الان أحرارا وانه ليست هناك مشكلة اذا عبروا عن رأيهم بحرية.. أشعر بشكل عام ان هذا تقدم كبير».

 

وقد أجرى المركز، وهو منظمة لا تهدف للربح تساهم في تمويلها الامم المتحدة، استطلاعين لآراء العراقيين في الشهور الاخيرة.

 

 

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Guest moron99

now that the dust has settled.

 

I never believed that the intent of changing "voters" was to rig the result. I always thought it was meant to make suuni arabs want to vote no matter what threats or boycotts they have to endure. It appears to have worked on many levels. I think it was a very good chess move. In effect, they sacrificed their bishop and cornered the insurgent queen.

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Moron99

Well I think you touched a very interesting point. I feel the way this ammendement went through was to the benefit of getting radical Sunni Arab to along.

We heared their representatives saying that they will participate if the cluase get changed to real voters rather than registered. They thought that this might be a good excuse for their call to bycote the voting. Now they get into the corner.

BTW as for the poll I just mentioned, it said that about 80% of Iraqis on the national level are with the draft.

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The latest news..

Alsader finally came with his stand, he asked his followers to choose what ever appropriat as per their personal decision.

Also the main conference of Sunni Arab religious leaders asked their fellowers to reject it. Same stand was taken by the ex Baathi group of Alnewar which asked people to participate in order to reject. Alqaeda issued fatwa of killing any Iraqi specially Shia who participates in the voting.

 

Based on my personal contact , I feel the turn over might not be as big as last January.. There is a starnge feeling that things are granted for win.. I feel that there is aneed to encourage people to go and to clerify that this is a critical move .. I amn't saying I will be upset for any result, though I would like the draft to pass.

There was a new intiative by the Suadees who might rely on denouncing it inorder to step with new proposal of Lebanies like sanction based constitution.. Alwaten News paper came up last thursady with such proposal threatening Iraqis of keeping the killings if they they don't follow the Suadi solution. Such a move might have its effect on Sunni Arab to encourage the main stream to reject the draft hopping for better Suadee style Islamic Sharia based one!!

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Things are developing so fast.. Sunni Arbs failed to reach a common agreement on how to vote in the refrundum. In a meeting yesterday where more that 21 parties gathered, they failed to come up with a unified stand. The Islamic party and the relious Scholar committee came up with decision to call for rejecting it also did some radical groups such as Alhewar. However many prominent Sunni arab such as Shiekh fasal Alkoud in Alnbar was strongly supporting the draft and ask his people to vote for it.

 

Mean while the wild card , Mr. Alsader, a representative , PM Bahaa Alaarajee, was on Aliraqia TV yesterday , he strongly asked people to vote for the draft while condemming the Sunni radicals and accussing them of being working for Alqaeda Nawasib "Nawasib is the name Shia call any one hate Ali, their first Imam"..

Another representative of Alsader in speech today denounce the new intiative by Arab leage envoy , he asked the A-L to first issuing a clear condemnation to the terrorist acts by Qaeda and Saddees and also to condem clearly Sadam's crimes before being elligable to mediat and offer help.. Seems the sadrees are trying to improve their image as so many Shia looked to their previous actions as a colaporation with Sadamees.

 

Also today Alhakeem, head of PM majority shia colition , Barazani, head of Kurd coalition had several meetings with some Sunni arab representatives to reach a last moment compromise on the draft. The US embassidor was reported to play a critical role in helpping Sunnis get some of their demands. The main issue that Kurds and Shia are affriad about is that the radical sunnis are playing seek and hide. or what is called in Iraqi politics "take and ask".. They need a firm aggreement with main faction before accepting any more changes.

 

One of the radical Sunnis leaders , Mr. Mutlek , called on his friends Sadamees to re visit their stand , he said the violance seems not the right thing to play with the Americans. He added that this what the the last two years told us.

 

Gen Abi Zaid, was quated to say to the Suadees that the situation in Iraq is much different than what they might beleive, he added " Alot of Sunni radicals are approching us asking US army to stay as they affraid the domminance of Shia and Kurds !".. I think that why you might hear less noise demanding the withdraw of US trrops in the westren lebral media !!

Any how I already expected this change six months ago when I was commenting on the results of Jan ellection.. Seems they were in need to some time before get feded up!

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Seems there is a breakthrough on the last minute marathon.. A spokesman for the National assembly head, Sunni Arab Alhasani called for the assembly session on Wendsday to review the new wmmendments that the SUnni Islamic party had agreed with Coalition and Kurds about.. That ammendments that is based on the Strong sunni party support to the draft. Indeed this is not to mean all radicals will be on the accept side. There is stillthe following groups that still bycotting

 

1- The Sunni schoalr association.. radical group with strong Salafee backgrounds

2- Alkhalisee group, aminor Shia group following an Iranian origin Ayatoulah who returned back to Iraqi after liberation.

3-Sadaamees

4- Alqaeda Zarqawee

 

All of them issued Fatwas to bycott the voting.

 

On the other side, it expected that the reached aggreement might fuel the acceptance by Iraqis who were kind of confused over the last couble days due to the conflicting news about what these ammendments might look like.. Let us wait and see..

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