The first ellection under the new constitution

[salim]

In two days Iraqis forgot Saddam trial, the consititution debate , the security and services. They all talk now about one thing, who will they choose for the next assembly?

 

Here is a breif of what had happened on the coalitions slates.

In gerenral there is a new polarization in the next ellection. Islamist "Shia, sunni arab, Sunni Kurds" on one side of each of the three groups, And seculars "Sunni arab, kurd and Shia" on other side of each.

That was clear through three moves.

First and most imporatant was the split of Alchalabi and other Shia secular technocrats from the Shia coalition leaving it to go more islamist by having Alsadrees and Fadilah parties joining the slate pushing it more toward the right .. Second, Kurd islamist party split from Kurd slate. Third The split of radical Arab sunnis into three main slates, one islamist ,one with more Bathist backgroud and third of secular social/tribal mix.

 

Adding to to above , the move by Alawee slate in joining forces with Communist party and some Sunni Arab technocrats.

 

It is too earily to comment on chances of each of the main five slates, namely

Shia Coalition, Shia Islamist..right

Kurd coalition, Kurd secular...central

Alawee Iraqia slate, mix secular anti Islamist. .. left

Isalmic party slate, Sunni Arab Islamist..right

Chalabi slate, mixed moderate secular.. central

 

 

I personally thing the move by Chalabi is to grap a very important sect of Iraqi middel class who oppose all idioligical parties, Alawee/baathist , Islamist, comminist. Iraqis nominate these parties as Ahzab "parties" which is different than the English interpratetion. Alwaee got that sect vote in the last vote by having a strong stand agaist the islamist without showing a clear idiological Arab nationalist face.. However a lot of these voters , specially the Shia side, are no longer in favour of Alwaee due to alleged accusations that he is keeping a short distance from Bathists and some blessing by some Arab dictator goverments. These voters are looking for some secular with clean record from both. Chalabi might be that one if he comes up with a good political program that touches the hot issues of rebuilding plan supported by granting soverignty, services and security.

 

Though it looks that the Shia coalition migh get between, 34-45% of the assembly, they will be in short for the 66% domination. I think if Chalabi and other Shia technocrates succeeded to win about 20% , then he would easily win the PM position, as the three goups inside the Shia Coalition might not be able to agree on one candidate, while all of them keep good relation with Chalabi.

 

As for Alawee , I personally don't think he have any chances from first round . His Sunni Arab partners Bachachee, Alhasani and Alyawer are very week among Sunni Arab who might prefer to go to one of the three Sunni groups, at a time most Shia might go to other secular as I explained above. He might need to consolidate Kurd and secular Sunni and Shia in to get the post.

 

There mightn't be any surprises on the Kurd front other than having less realistic PM members after Sunni arab participation while it is too earlity on commenting on the three Sunni arab slates.

 

 

I think the real battel for the PM post will after the ellection when dust settle dowm to count and regcognize the shape of Iraqis mind set for the next four years.

 

It will be a lot of fun.. Let us wait and see.

[salim]

Alchalabi in his announcement for the political program went so shrud and direct to the voter pocket. He promised the followings

-direct distribution of some oil revenue to people

-Governemnt investment to support housing

-relieve taxes on farmers

-encouraging the banking system

-strong intengence

-Though respecting Marjeia, he is calling for state of law

-Youth support

 

 

That is the most agenda and p[rogram that I ever thought of of him comming with.

I think he hit competitors where it hurt most. They can't promise these for simple reason, they are looking for strong leadership not a strong popular base. We are used to idiological parties who call for people prosper, but on condition that the prosper is comming from leadership. Here he flip it on them and said , let people be the leader. !

 

I think he is going the right path toward real leader.. Let us wait and see how other will respond..

[Guest Mustefser]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/internatio...-Elections.html

 

About chalabi agenda

[Guest Mustefser]

http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=arc...a=ia&ID=IA25205

 

Good article

[salim]

I lately read some interesting comments by some analysists about Systani decision to distance him self from any slate ..

Some considered this as a back up from his alleged stand in support to the Shia coalition slate. And explained this move as a sign of failiar of the current governemnt run by coalition leadership.

 

I have a different analogy to this.

First of all , Systani never supported in clear religious way the Shia coalition. There is no one official statement by his office. All those statement by some minor clerics who represent him for " religious matters" is not an evidence.. He is a very smart man. He let the coalition use his photos but he didn't say it.

 

I think he was in support to the coalition because the coalition , from his prospective, was representing most of Iraqi factions. There was Sunni, Shia and kurds. he thought that having a solid unified slate was very important for that period to succeed in writing the constitution.. And that what had happened. Without such core main slate , there was a possibility that Iraqis might fail getting into next step.

 

Now as the constitution already passed by people. He step up in a very clear way to distance himself from Islamist parties . We need to know that systani is belonging to the traditionist Shia theology which doesn't believe in Political "Islamist" agenda. I think by this move he is trying to say to Iraqis , specially those who trust his judgment, that it is not an Islamic duty to choose these parties. It is just a political personal decision.

 

This indeed is explained in Iraq as a huge support of secular slates. And specially Chalabi. Why Chalabi? because those who might trust Systani are those who are in complete contradiction to Alaway after his alleged cooperation whith Baathists..

[salim]

A head of one Sunni slates , a tribal of Anbar tribe Duliamee clan , had been shot dead by a group of criminals wearing Army dress. This time they didn't get police one as they used to waer in last couple of monthes. This might be intentional to point to the Ministry of defence who is also a Sunni from same clan of DUlaimee..

 

Over the last months there were a lot odf such incidents where some Shia or Sunni figures got killed by unknown bands of criminals.. Shia accuse some Sadamists and Sunni accused some Shia militia..

[Guest Round Two: Backgrounder]

Iraqi Elections - Round Two: Backgrounder

Posted: 11/24

From: NCF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On December 15, Iraqi voters will cast their ballots for the third time in the course of one year, to elect 275 members of the National Assembly under a new constitution which was approved in a national referendum on October 15. If no unforeseen circumstances arise, and if the Sunnis vote in large numbers this time as they have appeared determined to do since boycotting the first elections on January 30, the number of voters is likely to establish a new record, notwithstanding the threats of insurgency and terrorism.

 

If the Iraqis have learned anything from their two previous voting experiences, it is that their votes count and that fraud and other forms of voting irregularities will be held to a minimum. But there is also a degree of disenchantment resulting from the failure of the present government to deliver on many of its promises, particularly regarding the security and economic issues.

 

The Competing Political Forces

The Iraqi voter will confront approximately 228 choices competing for his/her single vote. These are not political parties, per se; these are political entities or political groupings consisting of lists of small groups of people, or fairly large alliances. There are 21 major alliances or coalitions representing in excess of 100 political groupings around one or more individuals. In addition, there are another 207 lists of various combinations of personalities. The bigger alliances comprise anywhere from two political entities (kiyan siyasi) to as many as 17 entities. Another 27 entities or alliances have withdrawn, and others are in the process of doing so.

 

The Elections Board has given each approved alliance or every list of candidates an electoral identification number, beginning with 501. The identification numbers were selected by the Elections Board through a lottery system conducted in the presence of representatives of the various candidates, as well as of the elections advisers from the United Nations. These numbers will help semi-literate or even illiterate voters to vote, often with prior instructions from their political or tribal leaders.

 

Barring a last minute surprise, about five of the 21 alliances will likely emerge with a lion's share of the parliamentary seats:

 

The First Alliance. No. 555, al-i'tilaf al-iraqi -muwwahad (the Iraqi National Alliance), comprises 17 entities, including the two major Shi'ite political parties which earned the largest number of seats in the January 30 elections. Among the significant entities in this alliance is the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), whose leader, Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, is the number one on the alliance's slate, and the Da'wa Party of current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, who is next on the slate, followed in the third place by Muna Zalzala of the Badr Organization. Other significant components of the alliance are the Sadrist Movement of the young Shi'ite radical Muqtada al-Sadr and the militia associated with SCIRI, the Badr militia (listed in the alliance as a group rather than militia). Absent from the alliance is Dr. Ahmad Chalabi, the deputy prime minister (see under No. 569) a central component of the alliance in the previous elections, the Virtue Party (hizb al-fadhila) has indicated its intention, according to its secretary-general, Nadim al-Jaberi, of withdrawing from this alliance.

 

In the previous elections, this alliance received the blessings of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. In the forthcoming elections, the alliance will not be so "blessed." Al-Sistani, through his representative, Sheikh Abd al-Hadi al-Karbala'i, has announced that he will not support any alliance or political entity, but he urged the Iraqi people to vote in the elections.(2) Al-Sistani's position reflects an agreement among the four Grand Ayatollahs – namely, al-Sistani, Muhammad Sa'id al-Hakim, Bashir al-Najafi, and Muhammed Ishaq al-Fayadth – to eschew political intervention in the future.(3) Al-Sistani has also directed his immediate aides not to run for elections and, unlike the ayatollahs of Iran, he has deliberately distanced himself from the political process.(4) The fact that three of the four Grand Ayatollahs (other than al-Hakim) are foreign born may have weighed heavily in their decision to remain, at least publicly, on the sidelines.

 

Al-Sistani Withholding his Support From the Alliance

With the ayotollahs withholding their endorsement, with growing disenchantment –even on the part of al-Sistani – with the performance of Dr. Ibrahim al-Ja'fari as prime minister, and with the emergence of a unified Sunni alliance, the predominantly Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance is likely to do less well than in the previous elections. The alliance is also increasingly being seen as loyal to Iran, and as turning a blind eye to the growing presence of Iranian intelligence in the southern provinces of Iraq, particularly in Basra, the second largest Iraqi city.

 

Indeed, upon al-Sistani's withholding of his support, Iran rushed in to voice its support for the Shi'ite alliance.(5) Secular Iraqis, including many residents of that city, are alarmed by the actions of militant pro-Iranian organizations such as "thaar Allah," or "Allah's Revenge," which have been engaging in large-scale political intimidation or even liquidation of opponents to the Islamist way of life.(6)

 

Concession to Muqtada al-Sadr

To bring in Muqtada al-Sadr's movement, the Shi'ite alliance has offered the movement 30 seats (about one-quarter of the seats they expect to win). This concession reflects the growing realization that al-Sadr's popularity among young Shi'ite voters is on the rise and could, rather soon, overshadow the traditional religious establishment in Najaf, presided over by Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani.

 

In agreeing to join the Shi'ite alliance, al-Sadr made a number of demands, all of which were accepted:

(a) The Sadrist movement shall be allocated the same number of seats as allocated to SCIRI;

( The building of Iraqi armed forces shall be accelerated in order to expedite the exit of the multinational forces; and

© There shall be no normalization with the "Zionist entity" under any circumstances.

 

The mercurial al-Sadr has not given his public support to the alliance; rather, he has advanced the faint argument that his supporters have joined the alliance in their personal capacity.(8) His spokesman, Sheikh Mustapha al-Ya'qubi, declared that "al-Sayyid Muqtada" will announce "next week" his official position regarding the elections.(9)

 

Dr. Ahmad al-Chalabi, who was the architect behind the Shi'ite list in the previous elections, was offered three seats in the next elections. He found the offer highly unsatisfactory, and opted to form his own alliance (No. 569).(10)

 

The Second Alliance. No. 569, qa’imat al-mu’tamar al-watani al-iraqi (National Congress Party) comprises 10 entities of a liberal and secular orientation, representing Shi'a, Sunni and Turkmen. This alliance is the creation of Dr. Ahmad al-Chalabi and includes his own old party, the National Congress Party, the Iraqi Constitutional Movement of al-Sherif Ali bin Al-Hussein who is a claimant of the Iraqi throne, Minister of Justice Abd al-Hussein Shandal, and former head of the Turkmen front Faruq Abdullah.

 

Ironically, al-Chalabi is estranged from the Shi'ite-oriented Iraqi National Alliance (No. 555), which he is presently representing in the cabinet as deputy prime minister. Interviewed on al-Jazeera TV about the reasons for the split from the United Iraqi Alliance, al-Chalabi said that the United Iraqi Alliance had adopted "an Islamist stance which is not compatible with the views of the people" he represented. Answering another question, al-Chalabi said, "Now that the constitution has been approved, praise be to God, it is obvious that there is a need for a list that represents a large cross-section of Iraqi people who are faithful Muslims and who also believe in a democratic, pluralistic, and federal system of government."(11)

 

It is not clear how al-Chalabi's estrangement from the Iraqi National Alliance will bear on his chances to become prime minister. It may have adverse effects. It is also possible that al-Chalabi, who is on good terms with both Al-Sistani and Muqtada al-Sadr, would hope to be elected independently of the major Shi'ite slate in order that he might be able, after the elections, to split the Shi'ite alliance and, with the help of other groups, including the Sunnis, the Kurds and other secular elements in the National Assembly, to emerge as a viable candidate for the prime minister post.(12) On his way to the U.S. during the week of November 7, al-Chalabi held meetings with senior Iranian officials, including the president of Iran. Fearing the rise in popularity of Dr. Ayad Allawi (No. 731), Iran has endorsed al-Chalabi as prime minister.(13) It is yet to be seen if such endorsement may not be counterproductive for al-Chalabi's prospects.

 

The Third Alliance. No. 618, jabhat al-tawafeq al-iraqiyya (The Iraqi Accord Front) the main Sunni alliance, comprises the three key Sunni entities, namely "The Iraqi Islamic Party," under its secretary-general, Tariq al-Hashemi, "The National Dialogue Council" under Khalaf al-‘Alyan, and "The General Congress of the Iraqi People" whose head, Dr. Adnan Muhammad Salman al-Duleimi, heads this alliance. This alliance includes many chiefs of Sunni tribes, such as Bani Malek, al-Jabbour and al-Sawa'id.

 

Al-Duleimi has said that there have been pressures on the Sunnis to participate in the elections en masse and to discard the insurgency option in favor of political participation. With the help of fatwas issued by Sunni clerics, he is urging the Sunnis not to repeat the mistake of boycotting the first elections, which resulted in the political marginalization of the Sunnis.(14) If the projections of a massive Sunni participation in the elections materialize, they are likely to emerge as the second largest body in the National Assembly.

 

The Fourth Alliance. No. 730, al-tahaluf al-kurdistani (The Kurdish Alliance), comprises eight entities, including the two major Kurdish political parties –"The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan" (PUK) of Jalal Talabani, the current president of Iraq, and the "Kurdistan Democratic Party" of Mas'oud Barazani, the president of the Kurdistan Region. Among the other entities in the Kurdish alliance are the Kurdistan Communist Party, and groups representing Turkmen and Christians (the latter have the largest concentration in Iraqi Kurdistan).

 

The Kurdish alliance stands to lose some seats, even if they obtain the same number of votes as in the last elections. First, in the absence of the Sunni vote in the previous elections, the Kurdish vote counted for a larger percentage of the total number of votes cast. With the Sunnis factored in, the percentage of the Kurdish vote will inevitably be smaller. Second, "The Islamic Kurdish Union," which was part of the Kurdish alliance in January elections, is running its own slate in these elections, and could drain some votes from the Kurdish alliance.

 

The Fifth Alliance. No. 731, al-qa’ima al-iraqiyyah al-wataniyah (The Iraqi National List), comprises 15 entities. This alliance is headed by former interim prime minister Dr. Ayad Allawi, and it includes well-known secular and non-sectarian political figures, both Shi'ite and Sunni, such as Ghazi al-Yawer, the Sunni vice president of Iraq; Hajim al-Hasani, the Sunni speaker of the National Assembly; Hamid Majid Moussa, the secretary-general of the Communist Party; Adnan al-Pachachi, the venerable Sunni Iraqi statesman; Sa'doun al-Duleimi, the minister of defense (Sunni); and former foreign minister and Shi'ite Sayyid Ayad Jamal al-Din, one of Iraq's most liberal and secular voices. The alliance also includes many leaders of the women's movement, including Fasia al-Suhail, the designated Iraqi ambassador to Egypt.

 

One member of this alliance is Dr. Ayham al-Samara'i, a former minister of power in the Allawi government. In an interview with the Iraq daily al-Zaman, al-Samara'i maintains that, as the secretary-general of the National Council for the Unity and Construction of Iraq (al-majlis al-watani li-wihdat wa-bina al-iraq), he was negotiating with 11 different insurgency groups to form a national front to "politicize" the insurgency and bring it into the political process.(15)

 

The Remaining Alliances

The remaining alliances are made up of mainly unknown entities which may lack the resources to campaign effectively and, by our estimates, will not do well in the forthcoming elections. The fact, however, that they can register and place candidates in the elections is a good indication of the competitive nature of the emerging Iraqi political process and the concomitant growth of the political culture in Iraq despite relentless violence by insurgents and terrorists.

 

The Distribution of Seats in the Next National Assembly

 

The system adopted for the December 15 elections is more complicated and bound to be, perhaps, more controversial than the system adopted for the elections in January.

 

In January, the election system was based on a strict proportional representation, with Iraq serving as one electoral district. Seats were subsequently distributed among the competing groups in proportion to the number of votes each group received in the elections.

 

For the elections in December, there will be two groups of parliamentary seats for a total of 275 seats – the major group of 230 seats are referred to as the Seats of the National Assembly (maqa’id majlis al-nuwwab) and the remaining 45 seats are referred to as the compensatory seats (al-maqa’id al-ta’widhiyah). The 230 seats are distributed to the provinces based on the number of registered voters in the January elections: Baghdad (59), Naynawa (19), Basra (16), Suleymaniya (15), Erbil (13), Dhi Qar (12), Babel (11); Dyala (10); Anbar and Kirkuk (9) each; Wassit, Salah al-Din, Qadisiyya and Najaf (8) each; Dhouk and Misan (7) each; Karbala (6); and Muthanna (5).(16)

 

This formula was arrived at through two arithmetic steps. At the national level, the total number of votes registered in the January elections was divided by the total number of parliamentary seats (i.e. 275). The quotient of approximately 50,000 represents the national average per seat (the Election Board refers to it as the National Quota).

 

At the next step, the number of seats allocated to each province is divided by the number of votes registered in the January elections in that province. The quotient could vary from a high of 50,000 in Baghdad to the mid-30,000s in the province of Dyala.

 

While all slates will compete nationally, under the new system each candidate, whether running as an individual or as a member of an alliance, must declare his/her candidacy in one of the 18 provinces. A large alliance, such as the Iraqi National Alliance, will place different candidates in different provinces, with their leaders placed on top of the slates in provinces where they expect a major turnout in their favor ("safe districts" in American or British parlance). For example, the Iraqi National Alliance placed slates of SCIRI candidates in three of its potentially strong provinces and slates of Muqtada al-Sadr supporters in another three provinces, including the religiously significant province of Najaf. By contrast, an individual or a small alliance might place their efforts in one province to maximize the number of votes cast in their favor.

 

The 45 Compensatory Seats

The system is designed to provide a sort of "second chance" for slates or individuals who are unable to accrue enough votes within the province where they declared their candidacy to earn a parliamentary seat. Even if a slate does not receive enough votes in terms of the provincial quotient to qualify for a seat in a province, the total number of votes cast for that slate nationwide may be sufficient to make the slate eligible for a seat.

 

There are some other configurations that could give preference to women if their number on a slate falls below the required one-third.

 

In the event that not all the compensatory seats are allocated in the first round, a special formula will be used to distribute the rest of the seats based on a combination of national and provincial votes. In other words, every vote cast in any of the 18 provinces matters.

 

Difficulties with Voting

In addition to the voters' difficulty of making a choice among the large roster of candidates, there is the administrative difficulty of determining the roster of voters. The Iraqi Elections Board uses ration cards (al-bitaqat al-tamwiniyah), for lack of other reliable instruments, as the basis of preparing the list of voters. Each Iraqi has a ration card which entitles him/her to food rations at subsidized prices. However, these cards were issued in the early 1990s and many of the cardholders are no longer alive. Also, it was common for the Saddam regime to issue extra ration cards to their loyalists while denying them to their enemies. Moreover, some people may have moved to new locations and, given the security situation, may find it difficult –if not impossible –to vote in the designated electoral district.(17)

 

Voting Overseas

The Elections Board estimates that there are1.2 million expatriate Iraqis who are eligible to vote. Facilities will be available in 20 countries for those expatriates desirous of voting. These countries are likely to be: Australia, Canada, Germany, Iran, Jordan, The Netherlands, Syria, Turkey, the U.A.E., the U.S., Sweden, the U.K., Kuwait, Yemen, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Libya, Egypt, and Lebanon. Of these 20 countries, Libya, in which 45,000 expatriate Iraqis reside, may not authorize elections on its soil.(18)

 

In the previous elections, a mere 265,000 expatriates voted, partly because of the requirement that the expatriate must first register and then vote a week later. For those who had to travel, this requirement was quite restrictive. In the coming elections, one visit to the ballot box will suffice.

http:// www.ncfpeace.org

Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli

_______________________________________________

[Guest Mustefser]

Iraqi Parliamentary Election 13th, 14th, and 15th of December 2005

 

Dear fellow Iraqis,

 

The Iraqi Election Committee for "Out of Country Voting in Northern California" welcomes you. Your participation in this election is very crucial; it will help our upcoming parliament and government to achieve a better Iraq for all.

 

All Iraqis, 18 years or older, born in Iraq or from Iraqi parents and living anywhere in the US are eligible to vote in this election. All you need is a document that shows you are an Iraqi or your parents are Iraqis. An American passport that states your birth place is Iraq is a valid document for this purpose.

 

You can visit official Iraqi Election Website at: http://www.ieciraq.org/English/Frameset_english.htm

 

The election will take place on the 13th, 14th, and 15th of December 2005 from 8:00 AM to 8:00 PM

[salim]

My personall judgment is that the results will be in favour of the SHia coalition in the range of 30-40%. This is much more that was expected couble of weeks ago. I think this was pariatlly because of the Jadria jail raid by some US units. Most Iraqis , specially Shia and Kurds felt so humilated and prpaganda accompained it was to send a message that the Americans might not willing to seriously fight the terrorists.. Here where interior minster got all the credits in showing him self as the one who is trying his best to protect his people while others not allowing him.

Today when some Eroupean governemnts express concern of having alleged ICA run secret jails on their soil might help us understand the concern that some US officials in Iraq showed about the alleged secret jails run by Iraqi governemnt.. These official thought that Iraq's soil is part of theirs and not the Iraqi governemnt's !! Am I smart to analyse this was..? I know it , I am going too far, but I really feel that these unit gave the Islamist Shia a great support to win more votes, exactly same support that was given to list by the Suadi attack of the interior minister!

 

Is there a conspiracy here to support the Shia coalition by US and Suadi? Am I lossing direction ?

[salim]

Though many of the radical parties are calling for immediat withdraw of coalition forces, however no one slate had put this as ellection prograam priority..

is that telling any thing? A note to those lebral writers who keep telling the US public that Iraqis wanted us to withdraw!

 

Things are going so tense, as more and more ordinary Iraqis now heavily participated in debates.. What a lovely feeling. Today a friend of mine who is responsible for a voting station out side Iraq told me two stories. One about an Iraqi Christain who contacted him to offer paying the expenses of printing materials . My firend told him all expenses are covered by Iraqi goverment, the caller said " I want to participate, so please let me do it"!

Also a US non Iraqi citizen called the center offering his van in moving voters arround ..

 

I think what is happening in Iraq is the new major uprise in Iraq history since the Islamic change era!

[Guest ellection web sites]

www.ieciraq.org : This is the main Iraq site. Has FAQs, laws,

procedures, section on OCV, list of candidates, etc. In the procedures

section, there's a poll/count procedures powerpoint (in PDF) that was

evidently done by IFES and UN.

 

www.ieci-ocv.org : The main OCV worldwide site. Unfortunately, almost

everything on it requires Macromedia Flash Player 8 to view (which I don't

wish to install, though it's free).

 

www.iragvote.org : The main US site. Has most of the same things as the

main Iraq site, but also has PDF copies of the three voter ed pamphlets

(but they are only in Arabic and Kurdish). It has click-ons to each of

the US sites (but this only gives address and email info).

[Leifur]

It is too earily to comment on chances of each of the main five slates, namely

Shia Coalition, Shia Islamist..right

Kurd coalition, Kurd secular...central

Alawee Iraqia slate, mix secular anti Islamist. .. left

Isalmic party slate, Sunni Arab Islamist..right

Chalabi slate, mixed moderate secular.. central

I find this split into right, central and left wing parties interesting but it is accurate?

 

I mean on what grounds do you base this split?

 

Is a right wing someone that is rather religious (like sometimes tends to be the chase in western countries), a left wing someone that is against religion (like also sometimes tends to be the chase in western countries) and the central, there somewhere in between?

 

Or do you use more traditional model of splitting the right winged into those who wants less government and less taxes and the left wingers into those who want more government control and higher taxes?

 

Are there any purely ideological parties in Iraq today that follow policies like Capitalism and related political ideologies, wich is what I beliewe in is best for everybody:

 

Conservatism varies depending between countries in its specific stances. In Western nations, conservatives often defend the status quo of capitalist practices. These are often called business conservatives. Many people who call themselves politically conservative, however, prefer a government-regulated capitalism (sometimes called "mercantilism") over free-market capitalism. According to them, free-market capitalism disrupts traditional ways of life and what they often call "family values". Thus, others might classify conservatives as being in favor of a mixed economy.

 

Liberalism Because of the broad application of the word, not every "liberal" party makes support for unrestricted laissez-faire capitalism part of its ideology. However, most liberal parties over the course of the 20th century, have made the continuance of capitalism a primary objective, and have made free trade a centerpiece of their economic programs. In many contexts liberalism is synonymous with reduction in regulations, trade barriers and state monopolization, and liberalization is defined as the political and economic process of accomplishing these goals. Again the applicability is context dependent.

 

Libertarianism, which can be considered a branch of classical liberalism, defends a capitalist free market with minimal state intervention. (See laissez-faire.) Minarchist libertarians see the role for government in the economy as solely defending the property rights of the participants against violence, theft, fraud, and damages such as pollution.

 

Objectivism argues that capitalism is a social system based on the protection of individual rights, especially property rights, including the private ownership of resources or capital. It further argues that free markets are created by the rational actions of free men who act within the bounds of their unalienable, and rationally derived, rights.

 

Anarcho- Capitalism sees no role for government whatsoever. They believe that all government functions, including physical security and the adjudication of commercial disputes, will be better achieved by market mechanisms, such as mercenary armies and private arbitration.

 

So called Neo-Liberalism wich is mostly the same as liberalism and libertarianism mentioned abowe.

 

Or are there any purely ideological parties who talk on more left wing grounds like:

 

Socialism

 

Social-democratism

 

Fascism/Baathism

 

Leftism

 

Collectivism

 

Communism

 

Or any other ideological parties worth mentioning?

[salim]

Leifur,

Sorry for short reply.. Evry Iraqi these days is fully busy. no time to read and reply. From Saddam trial, to Iraqi soccur team great win of the West Asia cup with great win of 5-1 on Suadies, some thing a lot of Iraqis translate politicaly meaning, to the win on Syria on the Final, again another political reply to those who harm Iraqis, then the final days before ellection.. Iraqis find them self so busy

As for your question. My personal definition is

right .. those who want to keep the traditional concepts the governed our society

Left those who want to radically change these rules

 

Ofcourse right can be split between those who read our tradition in moderate right , like the Shia coalition , and extreem right like the Sunni terrorists.

Same for left.. Comminisim is different than Alawee, but both found them self in same boat. For now at least..

[BahirJ]

This my forecast to the national assembly

 

[Province] [seats] [shia Lists] [Kurds] [sunnis] [Alawi] [Others]

Baghdad 59 35 1 11 12 0

Basrah 16 13 0 2 1 0

Naynawa 19 3 3 10 3 0

Anbar 9 0 0 9 0 0

SalahDin 8 2 0 6 0 0

Diala 10 4 2 4 0 0

Karkuk 9 2 4 3 0 0

Karbala 6 6 0 0 0 0

Najaf 8 8 0 0 0 0

Babil 11 8 0 1 2 0

Quadisyia 8 8 0 0 0 0

Muthanna 5 5 0 0 0 0

Thi-Qar 12 12 0 0 0 0

Maysaan 7 7 0 0 0 0

Wasit 8 6 0 1 1 0

Duhuk 7 0 7 0 0 0

Erbil 13 0 13 0 0 0

Slaymania 15 0 15 0 0 0

Regional 230 119 45 47 19 0

Nationwide 275 137 52 54 22 10

50% 19% 20% 8% 4%

 

Shia lists could contain 555 + 569 and other x-National Allience List in the past election.

 

Time will tell

[Leifur]

Congratulations on the elections today, it seems to be going mostly well and peacefully, hopefully that will continue. I pray to God that your elections will continue peacefully and will give results acceptible to the people of Iraq.

 

Pleace tell me mr. BahirJ and others, do these parties on your list here abowe have any special economic policy and then what? Are there any parties with Laissez-faire economic policy or other kinds of market economy aproach? Is there any parties that want a big role for the government in the economy or even a socialist style planned economy?

 

Is there no politician or political parties that talk about economic freedom of Iraqis, privatization or any thing like that?

 

What about Al-Chalabis ideas of distributing the oil wealth among the people, is he still talking about that, and is that beeing popular? How is he planning on implementing that policy?

 

Here is an article I found here, very good, and I wanted to share. I highligthed a portion that interested me greatly, pleace comment on this article and specially answer the questions put forward in the higlighted box:

 

With the Iraqi election campaign in full swing one may wonder why the international media are paying such little attention to an exercise the outcome of which is likely to have a major impact on political developments throughout the region.

 

The Dec. 15 election is not the first democratic exercise of its kind in Iraq after liberation. Since 2003 the Iraqis have held municipal elections in all but four of their 18 provinces. A nationwide general election, the first of its kind in the nation’s history, was held last January. And in October almost 10 million Iraqis turned up to vote in a constitutional referendum. The coming election, however, is different for a number of reasons.

 

To begin with it is held within the framework of the new Constitution. Unlike last January when the Iraqis elected an interim government with a limited mandate, this time they will be choosing a parliament and a government with a full constitutional mandate for a four-year period.

 

The second reason why this election is more important is that it offers the Iraqis a choice of rival political and economic models. This was not the case in last January’s election which focused on constitutional issues that, to some Iraqis, appeared rather abstract and thus removed from their daily concerns.

 

With the federal system already envisaged by the Constitution the Iraqi electorate would have to focus on the different economic and social policies on offer. Should Iraq remain an oil-based rentier state in which the chief task of the government is to provide a minimum of welfare? Or should it aim at building a proper capitalist system based on free enterprise and competition with the role of the state reduced to a bare minimum?

 

Yet another reason for the special importance of the coming elections is that it will be fought not by big coalition blocs designed to blur ideological differences, but by parties and alliances fighting under clear ideological banners. The January election was dominated by Shiite and Kurdish bloc votes that limited the options for forming the new government. This time there are no such bloc votes and numerous combinations for coalition could become possible. The exercise will provide an accurate photography of the state of opinion in Iraq today.

 

Also important is fact that Arab Sunnis are determined to take part in the election. In the previous electoral exercises in Iraq more than half of all Arab Sunnis chose to stay home either because they feared for their lives or believed that the dominant Shiite-Kurdish alliance was offering them a rough deal. This time, however, a large Arab Sunni turnout is expected and, if it materializes, could alter the political landscape in Baghdad.

 

The election merits special attention for yet another reason. It is specifically designed to produce a government whose first task would be to negotiate the terms under which the US-led coalition forces would remain in Iraq.

 

Whatever deal is worked out would end the persistent confusion that is exploited by Saddam nostalgics for attacking both the coalition and the new Iraqi leadership. In legal and technical terms the occupation of Iraq by the US-led Coalition ended in June 2004 with the transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government. But Saddam nostalgics both in the region and in the West have continued to speak about “occupation” and make a song-and-dance about US imperialism wearing the mask of liberator. The government that will be formed in Baghdad early next year would be able to counter those claims by negotiating a clear basis for the continued presence of the coalition forces — a presence that is certain to be needed at least until 2007.

 

There is no doubt that as voting day approaches, terrorists and insurgents will step up their murderous attacks just as they have since liberation. These attacks, however, are clear signs that the insurgents and terrorists lack a genuine popular base in Iraq. Had they had such a base they would have had no need of blowing up Iraqi shoppers in a market or Iraqi children in a primary school. Rather they would have mobilized their base for a massive turnout on Dec. 15 to vote pro-insurgent candidates in. Terrorism is always practiced by those who know that they cannot win power through the ballot box.

 

What is remarkable is that the continued terrorist campaign has not succeeded in encouraging the fear-and-security reflex among the Iraqis, something which would have most favored traditional right-wing parties. I may be proved wrong but my guess is that Iraq’s secularist parties of the center, both right and left, are likely to do far better than they did in last January’s general election.

 

Today, Iraq is the only country in the region where all shades of opinion can freely compete for power through elections. From Trotskyites on the far Left to the pan-Arabists on the far Right, and passing by Islamist, monarchist, liberal, socialist and democratic parties, the entire spectrum of opinion and ideology is on offer in Iraq. It is also the only country where ideas and policies that could land their exponents in jail or in front of firing squads elsewhere, are freely discussed in an open market-place of opinions and ideologies.

 

All one needs to do is to ask what would happen to anyone who advocated a constitutional monarchy in the Islamic Republic of Iran; and where would a Social Democrat end up in Syria, not to mention the fate of an Islamist in Tunisia and a Liberal in Libya.

 

The Iraqis are beginning to enjoy what few Muslim nations have ever enjoyed: An opportunity to debate all issues in full freedom and without fear. Iraq is going through a learning process symbolized by party conferences, debates between rival candidates, radio and television talk-shows, election rallies and endless political talk in private homes, teahouses, offices and farms. By all accounts this ought to be an interesting news story.

 

And, yet, it isn’t — especially in the West.

 

This story is not properly covered in the region because the despots still in power in most places do not wish to whet the appetite of their own subjects for freedom and pluralism.

 

The story isn’t covered in the West for two reasons.

 

The first is that many ethnocentrists, masquerading as multiculturalists, believe that Arabs are genetically incapable of building open societies. They don’t wish to admit it, but deep down they believe that the “normal” system for Arabs is more like the one that Saddam Hussein built and not the one that the new Iraqi leaders are trying to build. It is useless to tell people that nobody is imposing democracy on Iraq and that what is happening is the removal of impediments to democratization. These often well-meaning individuals firmly believe that the Arabs must be left to stew in their own juices.

 

The second reason why the Iraqi election story is not covered is that many influential figures and groups in the West are so imbued with hatred of George W. Bush and Tony Blair, that they would rather see Iraq sink in a sea of blood than build anything resembling a normal society. These people want Iraq to fail because they want Bush and Blair, and in a broader sense, the “Anglo-Saxon” bloc to fail.

 

As a result Western media viewers and readers miss a very good story — and a big piece of good news from a region where such blessings are rare.