U.S. Officials Say a Theocratic Iraq Is Unlikely

[salim]

One need to remember that the new constitution needs to pass the Veto of any three provinces.. For those who are faking worry about what the constitution might looks like under a mojority Shia assembly , they need to remeber that any constitution with Shia clergy ruling aspects will be easily Vetoed by the six Sunni "Arab and Kurds" provinces.. That is just in case there is such possibility of having Alsystani turn back his 10 centuries school of thought of isolating sate from religioun!!

 

 

U.S. Officials Say a Theocratic Iraq Is Unlikely

By ERIC SCHMITT

 

Published: February 7, 2005

 

 

ASHINGTON, Feb. 6 - The Bush administration sought Sunday to allay concerns that a Shiite religious state could emerge in Iraq as a result of last weekend's elections.

 

Speaking on television news programs on Sunday, Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said that Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, opposed direct cleric involvement in daily governing, and that most Iraqis rejected an Iranian-style theocracy.

 

"We have a great deal of confidence in where they're headed," Mr. Cheney said on "Fox News Sunday." "I don't think, at this stage, that there's anything like justification for hand-wringing or concern on the part of Americans that somehow they're going to produce a result we won't like."

 

He added, "The Iraqis have watched the Iranians operate for years and create a religious theocracy that has been a dismal failure, from the standpoint of the rights of individuals."

 

In his interview, Mr. Cheney also elaborated, for the first time, on the meaning of President Bush's challenge to the Iranian people to rise up against their ruling clerics. In the State of the Union address, Mr. Bush said, "As you stand for your own liberty, America stands with you."

 

Pressed to say what, exactly, the United States would do, Mr. Cheney said he and Mr. Bush "wanted to encourage the efforts that we've seen previously in Iran to promote freedom and democracy."

 

The statement, he said, was intended "to encourage the reformers, if you will, inside Iran to work to build a true democracy, one that doesn't vest enormous power, as this one does, in the unelected mullahs, who, we believe, are a threat to peace and stability in the region."

 

Both Mr. Cheney and Mr. Rumsfeld addressed Iran's nuclear ambitions, with Mr. Rumsfeld saying in a CBS News interview that he thought Iran "could be some period of years off" from actually building a nuclear weapon. Both men said there was still time to use diplomacy to disarm Iran, though Mr. Cheney said that if the current talks broke down, the administration would seek sanctions at the United Nations Security Council.

 

It was Iraq, however, and the delicate question of who will emerge in control of the country, that dominated the comments of both men. As Shiite religious parties prepare to take power in the new national assembly, senior Shiite clerics are debating how much of the Islamic faith should be enshrined in Iraq's new constitution, which the assembly will write. A constitution based on Koranic law would sharply depart from the transitional law that the Americans enacted.

 

In one of four appearances on television news programs on Sunday, Mr. Rumsfeld echoed Mr. Cheney's cautionary words.

 

"The Shia in Iraq are Iraqis," Mr. Rumsfeld said on the NBC News program "Meet the Press." "They're not Iranians. And the idea that they're going to end up with a government like Iran, with a handful of mullahs controlling much of the country, I think, is unlikely."

 

But he warned that it would be "a terrible mistake" if the new assembly adopted a constitution that denied "half of their population, women, the opportunity to participate fully."

 

Administration officials acknowledged that they would have much less influence over a transitional Iraqi government selected by the newly elected assembly, but were relying in part on Ayatollah Sistani's stature to steer Iraq clear of a government led by clerics.

 

"If you're looking for guidance in terms of what the relationship is likely to be between the religious faith, Islam, and the secular side of the house, the government, you really need to look at the top cleric, Sistani," Mr. Cheney said. "He also has been very clear, from the very beginning, that he did not want to play a direct role and doesn't believe clerics should play a direct role in the day-to-day operations of government."

 

As officials here monitor the election returns, Mr. Rumsfeld declined to set any schedule for withdrawing the 150,000 American troops. He said any exit strategy would be based on conditions on the ground - including the size of the insurgency, Syrian and Iranian help in combating it, and whether Iraqi "fence sitters" joined the political process - rather than a specific date.

 

Mr. Rumsfeld also spelled out in greater detail than before the abilities of the 136,000 Iraqi police and military personnel that the Pentagon has said are trained and equipped. Until recently, defense officials had given scant details on the abilities of individual Iraqi units. Last week, Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said 40,000 of those Iraqi forces were able to handle the most challenging missions.

 

But Mr. Rumsfeld said Sunday that that did not mean the remaining security forces were ill-prepared. "Some of them are trained to be policemen, and now a policeman is not a counterterrorism, or a police commando," he said on CNN's "Late Edition." "There are about 7 or 8 or 10 different categories that are being trained to do very different things."

 

When asked about the American plans to train and advise Iraqi forces, Mr. Rumsfeld said on "Meet the Press," "The important thing to do is to see that we do not create a dependency, that we encourage them to take over that responsibility."

 

Mr. Cheney reiterated - but this time with more definitiveness and humor in his voice - his determination never to seek the Republican nomination for president. Pressed on the issue by the host of "Fox News Sunday," Chris Wallace, Mr. Cheney said, "I don't know whether you want me to take a Sherman." The reference was to the Civil War general William Tecumseh Sherman, who declared, "If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."

 

"That'd be good," Mr. Wallace said.

 

Mr. Cheney then took an abbreviated Sherman, and added, "Not only no, but badWord, no."

 

"I've got my plans laid out," he said, describing rivers he has not yet fished and time he wants to spend with his grandchildren. "I'm going to serve this president for the next four years, and then I'm out of here."

 

 

David E. Sanger contributed reporting for this article.