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Baghdadee بغدادي

The Prize and the future

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A good book to read "The Prize" by Daniel Tergin.


Intersting views about oil and it's peak production


"Is the Bush Administration Aware of Peak Oil?"







In late 1999, Dick Cheney stated:




By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual


growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with,


conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from


existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an


additional 50 million barrels a day. 




To put Cheney’s statement in perspective, remember that the oil producing nations of the world are currently pumping at full capacity but are unable to produce much more than 80 million barrels per day. Cheney’s statement was a tacit admission of the severity and imminence of Peak Oil as the possibility of the world raising its production by such a huge amount is borderline ridiculous.




A report commissioned by Cheney and released in April 2001 was no less disturbing:




The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the


extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of


energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the


most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.




Not surprisingly, George W. Bush has echoed Dick Cheney’s sentiments.  In May 2001, Bush stated, “What people need to hear loud and clear is that we’re running out of energy in America.”




One of George W. Bush’s energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, has spoken at length about the impending crisis. Simmons is a self-described “lifelong Republican.” His investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world.




Given Simmons’ background, what he has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in an August 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:




It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan


B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5


billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a


tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health — greater


than anyone could ever imagine.




When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded:




I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of


circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for


maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.




In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. With oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon.




If you want to ponder just how devastating oil prices in the $200 range will be for the US economy, consider the fact that one of Osama Bin-Laden’s goals has been to force oil prices into the $200 range. 




A recent report prepared for the US Department of Energy has confirmed Mr. Simmons' dire warnings. Entitled "The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production," the report stated:




Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved


through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge


oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of


significant economic hardship worldwide.




Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating


crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel


deficit for two decades or longer.




The report went on to say:




. . . the world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive


mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be


pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were


gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.




As one commentator recently pointed out, the reason our leaders are acting like desperados is because we have a desperate situation on our hands.

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I got this feedback from an Iranian friend regarding the above link



Those in decision making levels have known this for years and I believe it also explains the real reasons behind the Iraq war. In Persian we have a saying: unless there is a little somthing, people won't say many things. In other words, the instinctive suspicion of intentions in Iraq, are the correct collective wisdom of peoples of the region.


I enjoy your innocent optimism about Iraq and wish I could be as optimistic as you (and I dearly hope I'm wrong) but if the last 100 years and the rest of oil related activity in the broader region of Caucasia and ME are any indications, it is hard to foresee good things for Iraq and the rest of the region. At least in the near future.


When you get a chance, rent and see The Prize, a documentary by PBS (early 90s) you can get from public library.

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  • 2 months later...

Dr Waed Almosawee is calling Iraqis for petition to support the proposal of turning the Iraqi oil industry to be owned by people with one share per person.



شركة النفط العراقيه المساهمه ... حلمٌ ... هل يتحقق ؟ ! 

د. وعد أبو رغيف الموسويّ


بعد عقود طِوال من حياة الفقر والعوز المادي التي عاشها العراقييون ، بسبب السياسات الخاطئه والإدارات السيئه للحكومات التي توالت وتعاقبت على العراق منذ تأسيس دولته عام 1921 ولغاية 9/4/2003 تأريخ ( سقوط صنم الديكتاتوريه) ، والتي لم تولي الأهتمام الكافي للشعب والوطن ، لأسباب عدة ، منها الأهمال وعدم المبالاة ومنها من تقصد إبقاء الشعب في حالة الفقر المدقع وتعمد التقصير في تنمية إقتصاد البلد من جانب ودعم القوه الشرائيه للفرد العراقي من جانب اخر ، سيما خلال الفتره المظلمه لحكم البعث التي دامت أكثر من ثلاثة عقود من القهر والظلم والفقر المقيت  ، بدد خلالها النظام الصدامي ثروات وخيرات البلد على شراء الأسلحه وبناء الترسانات الكبيره والمنشأات العسكريه الهائله وإنفاقها على الحروب المخادعه التي لم تخدم سوى مصالح أمريكا والغرب ، بل كان لها بالغ الأثر السلبي على نفسيّة وسلوكيّة  المواطن ، بين كل هذا وذاك يأتي قرار مطالبة حزب الجمهوريين الأحرار في تشكيل شركة النفط العراقيه الذي جرى إتخاذه في المؤتمر الثاني للحزب والذي إنعقد خلال شهر مايس المنصرم ، تأتي هذه الخطوة منطلقة من الظروف المشار إليها أعلاه وإيماناً منا بشعبنا الجريح الذي ضاق مُر العذاب ومرارة الفقر والعازه في الوقت الذي يعتبر بلدنا من أغنى البلدان قاطبةً ، ِلما يمتلكه من إحتياطي الثروة النفطيه في العالم أجمع .


ووفاء منا لهذا الشعب الأبي ، نطالب جميع القوى الوطنيه السياسيه والأجتماعيه والنخب المثقفه من أبناء العراق لأيصال أصواتها إلى حكومتنا المنتخبه بغية تحويل هذا الحلم إلى واقع حقيقي يجرِ العمل به لتنفيذ قرار الجمهوريين الأحرار بتشكيل ( شركة النفط العراقيه المساهمه) موضوعة البحث ، والتي يكون أعضائها جميع أبناء الشعب العراقي منذ ولادتهم ولحين وفاتهم . هلموا إخوتي لأرسال أصواتكم وتواقيعكم على بريدنا الألكتروني المبين أدناه بغية إرسال هذا المطلب الوطني إلى رئيس وأعضاء الحكومه ووضع اللبنى الأولى على طريق بناء الشركه الموعوده خدمة ً للشعب المظلوم الصابر ووطننا العراق الشامخ العزيز .


تحية إكبار ٍ وإجلال لشهداء العراق ... ولجميع المخلصين من أبناءه .








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