American mistakes/2

[salim]

There was a nother comment by Iraq the model, who I respected much and admire his supjectivity. I think this time he was under the great concern of Almehdi army and is try his best to ecourage their ellimination , as many sunni arab these days are doing. That was regarding his comment

Jawad al-Maliki, a hardliner from the UIA denounced "the American atrocities that are aimed at provoking civil war in Iraq…" and I just can't understand how can a US raid provoke civil war? Could it be that those American soldiers were Sunni extremists?!

 

Almaliki is not a hard liner , he is a leading member of Aldawa party whom Aljaafree is leading. Aldawa never been considered as hardlining group. On contrast these were the closest shia group to Sunni Arab islamic party. As for the civilian war side of it. There is growing feeling among Iraqis that those who carried the attack were "Kurd miltia members" . Indeed that would explain why EIU asked Talabani to head the investigation team, at a time it is the full responsibility of the Aljaafree. I think Iraq the model had missed this one. Again may be because of a strange feeling that some narrow minded Arab sunni are under .. I heard and read them expressing their glad wishs that americans and the Shia would get into clash , getting rid of both enemies in one stone!!!

[salim]

yesterday there was a very interesting statement by young Ayatoulah yaqoubi.

He accused embassidor Khlil Zada of igniting the secterian devision by irresponsible allegations and public statements

At same time, he asked the US government not to bound and retreat to the Alqaeada and sadimist terrorists threats.

mr. yaqoubi is very interesting figure. he was an engineer that went to Najaf hawza , during Saddam era , to study under the Alsader shool, the killed father of Muqtada. It is very rare to have some one get his Ayatoulah degree "Equivalent to Ph D" at early ages especially if he doesn't start his studie at early ages, such is the case with yaqoubi..After the fall of Sadam he distant himself from Moqtada, and took a very moderate positions that attracked most od the educated members of the Alsader group that form ALFADILA party whose head , dr. Aljabiree, competed Aljaafree on the PM position.

The party had about 15 parliment members.

 

His call was, to my understanding, is to express increasing fears among some Iraqis that the Americans are showing a weekening position in the fight against the terrorists. Some time by blocking the governement actions.

I personally don't think that the American policy is changed, the only thing is that the more Sunni Arab got envolved the more the current process is geting chances of success. However, this issue need also to be flaged by the US adminstartion. Such feeling among iraqis need not to be resonated by some unexplainable mistakes. And don't want to end up lossing those majority of Iraqis that are the real stratigic partner in this fight and rebuilding just on the expens of getting more people on board..

 

ayatoula Yaqoubi is in the late fourties and I think he got a lot to say the future.. The average age of the Suprim Ayatoulahs is 65 !!!

[salim]

Tex wrote,

This is the ,MPG video recorded on a bystanders cell phone of supposedly this clerics killing by the Medhi Army

 

 

I had the chance to send this link to a friend who keeps good relations with some Alsader office in the region of Neda mosque. i asked him to comment on this one..

My friend told me that they didn't deny the incident by Almehdi Army explaining that the "victim" was an Alqaeda operative that was hiding in the Mosque , captured in addition to huge artillary and explosives , also they found tourtuting rooms . They denied that this was the Imam of the mosque. My friend told me that these films are part of the psycho war betwen Qaeda and Alsadrees where each party broadcast them by cell phones in Baghdad to frighten the other group. He told me that the qaeda were used to post the discusting sloughtering of Alsadrees and Shia adults and lately a 3 years old .. In that video, a zarqawee criminal shown pushing hard on the infant chess then kick his body to the wall. When my friend asked his friend about the reason to kill the terrorist, the reply was shoking to me " You want us to deliver him to the government so the American come and release him later" !!!

[salim]

http://www.radiosawa.com/article.aspx?id=833035

 

Very interesting talk show on American sponsored radio Sawa.. Participating in the show, Iraqi security affairs minister alenezee, The new Imam of the Mosque Shiekh Altimimi and the Embassy spokesman Mr. Jefrey pels

 

The subject is "Was the attack is to please the Sunnis, or it was a terrorist center"

 

In arabic.

 

Altimimi confirmed that the attack was on religous gathering doing their evening pray. He said that at 6 pm we saw couple of hamphys blocking the streets to the mosque and adjacent two schools and start immediately shoting on the mosque. Then they captured some and killed others.

 

Alenazee said that the place located in a remote Ur which is not in the passage of the main routes. So it not true that the convoy had been attacked while doing a routin job

 

Pells said that full details had already passed to the PM and other Iraqi officials including a video that show the kidnapped person. He also regret that some religous places in Iraq . When he was asked if he think the place was a religous , he said that it n't if there is a manara or pray room in a place to be considered as a mosque, it is what is happening there.

 

Altamimi said that , Pells answer proved that the place is a religous place though he justified the attack on some allegation. Alsadrees already decided that the politoical resistance is a very clear policy.

 

Minister Aleenizee said that he will send Mr. Pills some videos that some of the killed were handcoffed and were killed cold bloded.. He confirmed that the special forces are not related to the governemnts and are mixed of Arab and kurds. he mentioned the Yazedees who are a non moslim kurds.

 

Mr. pells said that there is no American policy to drag the Alsadrees to a big fight and this should not be related to other incidens such as the attack on Muktada house and the raids on different alsader offices on same day.. When asked about any changing policy to please some radical sunnis by allanating the Shia, he denied such allegations and was sorry that In Iraq some are looking to Americans from factionist view. he said it is not the case and Americans are trying to bring on all parties without lossing the stratigic deep relations with the Shia .

 

 

Altimimi said that the american army released so many contradicting statements about the operation in the first day. when asked that many Sunnis accusing Almehdi aramy of killing Sunnis, he said that there is a fight with those who kill Iraqis and there is no such conflict between Sunni and Shia ..

 

Eneezee said that Iraqis are no longer affriad of military que that Sadamist might be planning by pentrating the Americans , he said the new Iraq is no longer threatened by such old model. he said the governemnt is considering the terrorism as the main threat and working hard in cooperation with the coalition forces "americans" . He asked Mr. Pills to talk to iraqis who are worried that the americans are supporting some one who kills Iraqis.

 

Mr. Pills confirmed that there are some who try to break the great ties in fighting the terrorist betwen the Americans and the Shia and he said that the relations is so strong . And that the vist of the Embassidor leave to Washington this week is a routine one. And there is no relation to the mosque incident.

When asked who might be those who are working to do this, he said those who are pushing iraq for chios and to return the dictatorship.

 

 

 

Very long interesting interview

[salim]

The surprise visit by Rice to baghdad and the political smart move of having her first meeting to be with Shia Coalition head mr. Alhakim, is what we call in Arabic "Thabat Mualim" or best of my translation " well done".

 

There were a lot of rumers based on non presented conspiracy theories that the current American's encourage to Iraqi sunni Arab is to be on expense of Shia Iraqis. These theories were fueled by long history of American old policies of supporting dictators to supress their people. And was largly escalated after the Mustafa Mosque, where I found most Iraqi Shia felt as insult directed to them and as what some media made as an attack on alsader thugs and bands.

 

Cooling down such fears and misunderstanding at such high levels is nothing but to send a very strong messages. One to those who have the faith in the new democratic Iraq that US and the international community are standing behind that model. The accompanying of the British misiter is to confirm the later dimention. The second to all those who mis interpreting the US goals of bringing diffrent groups to the table and thinking that they can play same dirty middel man game. .

[salim]

Not far from the mostafa mosque , alqaeda chose to send a very smart message to locals of Alshaab discret of north east baghdad. This time is to simulate a simmilar attack , they send their suicider to hit Alshoroufee Mosque almost same time of night pray. How ever it was at the peak time when the prayers were leaving and not at the begining of the pray. The suicider came in a pickup and explod himself at the entrance..

 

A successful message to tell locals that they are really siezed and have no chance but to cooperate with criminals who are willing to pentrate Baghdad from the east north gate through Alsada " the dam"..

 

 

I don't want to surcastic, but this what I heard from one locals on TV !!!

[salim]

I feel I need to talk about another mistake, this time not by the authorties in Baghdad but by non official organization inside USA.

 

I am noticing a lot of libral organizations facilitates the visits by many anti new Iraq Iraqis and arrange for them a nice well orchestrated programs, most of them were former baathists or some one who was related to. This is good , atleast to listen from those whose interests were severly damaged by the new dynamics. However this policy should also be extended to a very imporatnt sect of Iraqis who are not against the new dynamics but they are aginst the occupation. Alsadrees are one of them. I am wondering why no one yet thought of inviting some delegations from alsadrees to visit USA , first to have better chance looking how the real America that they might though so bad, is looking like. Other is to let the Americans have the chance to listen directly to their ideas. Some might thought this as so crazy, my comment on thius , Sadrees at least better than Baathists whom you are so happy to accomodate. Alsadrees didn't kill Iraqis or Americans, they are participating in the political process as a very serious player, and finally they are a reaql power on ground , not like the Baathists who are just bands of criminals who work in the dark.

 

This call should not be , by any measure, considered as a call to open doors with the administration, i am talking about those librals who cry to listen to those who are anti new Iraq!

[salim]

http://www.radiosawa.com/article.aspx?id=867514

 

In aRABIC

 

Who did stole the Iraqi money, the 23 billion dolars that Mr. Bremer's government in Iraq spent !

 

Very interesting interview on US sponsoured Radio Sawa.. Minstery of Justice, a judge and a rep from Alchalabi party that is lopying for a US legal investigation on the spending of that huge US and Iraqi money. Iraqi government has no authority to run such investigation alone ..

[Guest Haditha and Almustafa mosque cri]

Almaliki denounce the Haditha crimes. Government statement "below" asked for full investigation by Iraqi authoroties on this and other crimes such as Almustafa Mosque

 

جـــــمــهورية الـــعـــراق

 

مجلس الوزراء- دائرة الإتصالات الحكومية

 

العلاقات الإعلامية

 

بيان صحفي / Press Release

 

الخميس 1-6 -2006

 

 

 

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

 

 

 

بيان صادر عن مجلس الوزراء

 

 

 

وقف مجلس الوزراء في جلسته الإعتيادية ليوم الخميس 1/6/2006 عند الفاجعة التي ارتكبتها القوات المتعددة الجنسيات في مدينة حديثة التي راح ضحيتها عدد من الأبرياء بشكل يتعارض مع ضوابط العدالة وحقوق الإنسان .

 

ورفض مجلس الوزراء هذه الأعمال التي ترتكب ضد أبناء الشعب العراقي التي تكررت في مواقع عدة مثل حسينية المصطفى.

 

وإذ يعرب المجلس عن قلقه من جميع التجاوزات يؤكد على ضرورة إحترام حقوق الإنسان وعدم التساهل مع مرتكبي هذه الجرائم وإجراء التحقيقات اللازمة لردع هذه الأعمال مع التأكيد على أهمية التنسيق مع القوات المتعددة الجنسيات لمنع تكرارها .

 

ويطالب مجلس الوزراء بعد ظهور نتائج التحقيق في الحادث دفع تعويضات مالية مجزية لعوائل الضحايا وتقديم إعتذار رسمي للحكومة العراقية.

 

تغمد الله الشهداء بواسع رحمته وأسكنهم فسيح جناته والصبر والسلوان لذويهم.

 

 

 

 

 

مجلس الوزراء

 

بغداد

 

1/6/2006

[Airedale]

Here is a small excerpt from a recent article about Haditha

November 19th was a Saturday, right in the middle of a three-day spate of violence that the New York Times called "one of the deadliest three day periods since the American invasion," with 155 Iraqis and 8 American and British troops reportedly killed that weekend.

 

Now a Time Magazine story, published in March of this year after a 10-week investigation, has altered the Haditha narrative dramatically.

 

http://electroniciraq.net/news/2366.shtml

 

This is a lot like the "Mohammed cartoon drawings" when they were first published in Europe.

 

 

It took several months, even up to a year, before those that spread the article convinced middle east Muslims it was time to be outraged.

[Guest Iraqi Assails U.S. for Strikes o]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/02/world/mi...ast/02iraq.html

 

 

Iraqi Assails U.S. for Strikes on Civilians

By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.

Published: June 2, 2006

BAGHDAD, Iraq, June 1 — Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki lashed out at the American military on Thursday, denouncing what he characterized as habitual attacks by troops against Iraqi civilians.

Iraqis mourned their dead relatives outside a morgue in Baquba Thursday after gunmen ambushed a bus and killed at least five people.

As outrage over reports that American marines killed 24 Iraqis in the town of Haditha last year continued to shake the new government, the country's senior leaders said that they would demand that American officials turn over their investigative files on the killings and that the Iraqi government would conduct its own inquiry.

 

In his comments, Mr. Maliki said violence against civilians had become a "daily phenomenon" by many troops in the American-led coalition who "do not respect the Iraqi people."

 

"They crush them with their vehicles and kill them just on suspicion," he said. "This is completely unacceptable." Attacks on civilians will play a role in future decisions on how long to ask American forces to remain in Iraq, the prime minister added.

 

The denunciation was an unusual declaration for a government that remains desperately dependent on American forces to keep some form of order in the country amid a resilient Sunni Arab insurgency in the west, widespread sectarian violence in Baghdad, and deadly feuding among Shiite militias that increasingly control the south.

 

It was also a sign of the growing pressure on Mr. Maliki, whose governing coalition includes Sunni Arabs who were enraged by news of the killings in Haditha, a city deep in Sunni-dominated Anbar Province. At the same time, he is being pushed by the Americans to resolve the quarreling within his fragile coalition that has left him unable to fill cabinet posts for the Ministries of Defense and the Interior, the two top security jobs in the country.

 

Military and Congressional officials have said they believe that an investigation into the deaths of two dozen Iraqis in Haditha on Nov. 19 will show that a group of marines shot and killed civilians without justification or provocation. Survivors in Haditha say the troops shot men, women and children in the head and chest at close range.

 

For the second day in a row, President Bush spoke directly about the furor surrounding the case. "Obviously, the allegations are very troubling for me and equally troubling for our military, especially the Marine Corps," President Bush said Thursday, in response to a question from a reporter after a meeting of his cabinet. Referring to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Peter Pace, he added, "I've spoken to General Pace about this issue quite a few times."

 

Investigators are examining the role of senior commanders in the aftermath of the Haditha killings, and trying to determine how high up the chain of command culpability may rest.

 

Marine officials said Thursday that Maj. Gen. Stephen T. Johnson, who was the top Marine Corps commander in Iraq during the Haditha killings, had been set to be promoted to become the service's senior officer in charge of personnel, a three-star position.

 

General Johnson is widely respected by the Marine Corps' senior leadership, yet officials said it was unlikely that the Pentagon would put him up for promotion until the Haditha investigations were concluded.

 

The Washington Post reported Thursday that a parallel investigation into whether the killings were covered up has concluded that some officers reported false information and that superiors failed to adequately scrutinize the reports about the two dozen deaths.

 

The newspaper said that the inquiry had determined that Staff Sgt. Frank Wuterich, a squad leader present at Haditha, made a false statement when he reported that a roadside bombing had killed 15 civilians. The inquiry also said that an intelligence unit that later visited the site failed to highlight that civilians had gunshot wounds.

 

In Baghdad, senior Iraqi officials demanded an apology and explanation about Haditha from the United States and vowed their own inquiry.

 

"We in the ministers' cabinet condemned this crime and demanded that coalition forces show the reasons behind this massacre," Deputy Prime Minister Salam al-Zubaie, one of the most powerful Sunni Arabs in the new government, said in an interview.

[Guest Even in Iraq, All Politics Is Lo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/opinion/13stewart.html?

 

Even in Iraq, All Politics Is Local

By RORY STEWART

Published: July 13, 2006

Kabul, Afghanistan

 

A GREAT many of the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq arise from a single problem: the American-led coalitions’ lack of trust in local politicians. Repeatedly the Western powers, irritated by a lack of progress, have overruled local leaders, rejected compromises and tried to force through their own strategies. But the Westerners’ capacity is limited: they have little understanding of Afghan or Iraqi politics and rely too heavily on troops and money to solve what are fundamentally political and religious problems.

 

The coalitions cannot achieve political change in the absence of strong local support. And when they try to do so, they undermine their local allies. Iraqi and Afghan national and regional leaders have a far better understanding of the limits and possibilities of the local political scenes; they are more flexible and creative in finding compromises; and unlike the coalition officials, they are elected. They must be given real power and authority. This may seem an obvious prescription — but in fact the coalitions are not allowing it to happen.

 

I walked for several weeks across northern Afghanistan shortly after the coalition invasion, and I was struck by the strength and vibrancy of local politics. For four days I walked through blackened villages of ethnic Hazaras that had been torched by Taliban fighters in a last bid to impose central control. Yet within a few weeks of the Taliban retreat in these remote areas — some a 10-day walk from the nearest road in the winter snow — political councils had re-emerged to balance the demands of the community and the realities of local power.

 

There was a different political system in almost every village: one was controlled by a feudal chief who could recite a genealogy stretching back 15 generations; another by a mullah who had been backed by Iranian money during the Afghan civil war. In western Afghanistan, a former guerrilla leader named Ismail Khan was turning Herat into the most secure and prosperous city in the country.

 

I saw similar political resilience when I worked for the Coalition Provisional Authority setting up a new political system in Maysan Province in southern Iraq. Within a few months after the invasion, 54 political parties had emerged and 14 tribal groups were demanding representation.

 

Three Shiite Islamist groups dominated the 2005 provincial elections there. They were a blend of exiles, resistance fighters, clerics and opportunists, but they shared a suspicion of the coalition, had an authoritarian approach to local security, a reliance on their own illegal militias and an enthusiasm for conservative Islamic social codes. They began to establish a much firmer and better functioning government and to bring tribal groups and criminal gangs under control.

 

National leaders in Iraq and Afghanistan have moved toward accommodating local power-holders and finding compromises. President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, unable to defeat former Taliban guerrilla leaders intent on re-starting civil war, appointed some 50 regional strongmen as police chiefs last month. Likewise, leaders in Iraq have tolerated the Shiite militias in the south for years, and President Nuri al-Maliki is now pressing for negotiations with the insurgents and amnesty for many of them.

 

But the American, British and other coalition officials have a barely concealed distaste for such local political forces, and view any accommodation with them as weakness and appeasement. In Iraq, the coalition initially tried to arrest Moktada al-Sadr, the young Shiite cleric, and conducted a violent counterinsurgency campaign against his movement. In Afghanistan, the Westerners pressured Mr. Karzai to dismiss many independent governors, including Ismail Khan in 2004, and have demanded that the controversial new police chiefs be dismissed.

 

In some cases, the coalitions have good reasons for their actions. Many of the governors in Afghanistan abused human rights, challenged the central government and became involved with the drug trade. Many of the Shiite leaders in southern Iraq have been paid agents of the Iranian secret service, and many more have been behind the social repression by the illegal militias. An Iraqi friend of mine was killed last month by a militia group in Amara because he had been working with foreign nongovernmental groups.

 

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[abusadiq]

أخطاء أميركية ... مكاسب روسية وصينية

فادوتز - راغدة درغام الحياة - 14/07/06//

 

أخطأت الإدارة الأميركية عندما افترضت أن العراق هو الحلقة الأسهل في تنفيذ تعهد الرئيس جورج دبليو بوش باسقاط «محور الشر» الذي ضم إيران والعراق وكوريا الشمالية. وهي تفاقم الخطر بإنكارها الخطأ.

 

هذا «المحور» اخترعه كاتب من كتّاب خطب بوش ولاقى ترحيب الرئيس الأميركي الذي يعجبه أن يبدو مكلفاً إلهياً بمحاربة الشر. وها هو الآن المحور الذي يمتص العظمة الأميركية ويضع الولايات المتحدة في المقعد الخلفي للتطورات، فيما كان يجب أن تكون في مقعد القيادة.

 

اليوم، تبدو الصين وروسيا أكثر نفوذاً ومتانة في ملفي إيران وكوريا الشمالية، وهما مستفيدتان من التورط الأميركي في حرب الاستنزاف في العراق. لكن الأخطاء الأميركية في العراق ليست وحدها ما يكبّل خيارات واشنطن، ذلك أن السياسة الأميركية نحو إسرائيل تبقى عنصراً رئيسياً في تقييد رؤى بوش وأحلامه وفي تكبيل يديه. والمثير للفضول أكثر فأكثر هو عنصر التهادنية في العلاقة الإيرانية - الإسرائيلية وآثاره على السياسات الأميركية نحو شتى الملفات في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وبينها العراق - المحور الأسهل نيلاً ظاهرياً إنما الأصعب والاكثر ارتداداً على بدعة «محور الشر».

 

أزمة اختبار الصواريخ تجددت الأسبوع الماضي، وستتفاقم أكثر إذا نفذت كوريا الشمالية تعهدها باختبار الصواريخ البعيدة المدى قريباً في تحدٍ واضح للولايات المتحدة التي تبدو ضعيفة في نظر أكثرية الدول بسبب تورطها في العراق. هذه الأزمة قابلة للمعالجة إذا اتخذت الصين قراراً واضحاً وحازماً نحو كوريا الشمالية لابلاغها أنها لن تلاقي الحماية من الصين إذا استمرت في الاختبار، وإذا قررت كوريا الجنوبية أن الأزمة تستحق أن تؤخذ بجدية أكثر وأن تواجه باجراءات ديبلوماسية واقتصادية، وإذا توقفت الإدارة الأميركية عن رفضها المفاوضات وجهاً لوجه مع كوريا الشمالية وقامت بفرز استراتيجي لسياساتها ومقتضيات مكانتها عالمياً.

 

اختبار الصواريخ القادرة على حمل الرؤوس النووية اثار الرعب بسبب أبعاده على المعادلة الأمنية في شمال شرقي آسيا. المحادثات حول برامج التسلح النووي كانت بدأت بصورة جماعية، وليس ثنائياً وجهاً لوجه بين واشنطن وبيونغيانغ، لكنها توقفت بسبب أزمة مصرفية منفصلة.

 

البعض يرى أن ديكتاتور كوريا الشمالية كيم جونغ ايل، مارس التضليل والابتزاز والغش، وأنه يجب الكف عن «مكافأته» على خروقاته لالتزاماته عبر اغراقه بالمزيد من المال والديبلوماسية.

 

البعض الآخر يعتقد أن ما يريده كيم جونغ ايل هو المفاوضات المباشرة وجهاً لوجه مع الإدارة الأميركية للتوصل الى اتفاق على ضمانات أمنية وتطبيع العلاقات وفك طوق العزل عن كوريا الشمالية اقتصادياً وديبلوماسياً. ويرى هذا البعض أنه يجب تقديم رزمة من الحوافز مع التلميح بالعقاب الى كوريا الشمالية كما تُقدم رزمة الحوافز المدعومة بخيارات العقاب الى إيران.

 

الملفان سيكونان حاضرين في لقاء القمة للدول الصناعية الديموقراطية الغنية في سانت بطرسبورغ في روسيا غداً عندما يستضيف فلاديمير بوتين قمة مجموعة الثماني للمرة الأولى. ما يريده الرئيس الروسي هو إبعاد الانتقادات ضده بدءاً باتهامه بالدوس على الديموقراطية الجديدة في روسيا متذرعاً بالاعتبارات الأمنية ومكافحة الفساد. ما يُطالب به قادة الدول السبع الأخرى هو تذكير بوتين بأن الانتماء الى مجموعة الثماني يفترض عنصرين أساسيين هما الثراء والديموقراطية.

 

لكن القوانين الجديدة التي صكتها حكومة بوتين بذريعة مكافحة التطرف والتي تُستخدم لتقييد المعارضين وتخويفهم، لها شبه «شقيق» في القوانين الجديدة التي صكتها الإدارة الأميركية تحت راية مكافحة الإرهابي وهي تقضم الكثير من الديموقراطية والحقوق المدنية. فقوانين «باتريوت آكت» تتطاول على هذه الحقوق وكذلك على الدستور الأميركي، وهي قد قزّمت الممارسة النزيهة للديموقراطية.

 

قمة الثماني لن تطيل الحديث في هذه التجاوزات، بل الأرجح أنها ستتجنبها كلياً فيما تركز على الإرهاب وعلى صلاحية مواجهة هذا الخطر أمنياً بكل الوسائل المتاحة. بوتين يؤمن بذلك ويرفض المعالجة السياسية لمشكلة الشيشان، وبوش يؤمن بذلك ويصر على خوض حرب الإرهاب عسكرياً حصراً من دون أن يدقق في مواقف سياسية كتلك نحو القضية الفلسطينية من شأن ايجاد حل عادل لها يساهم في حشد الرأي العام العربي والمسلم وراء مكافحة الإرهاب.

 

اقتران المسلمين والعرب بالإرهاب ليس اختراعاً غربياً أو يهودياً أو هندياً. إنه للأسف، واقع أتى على المسلمين والعرب بأفعال مسلمين وعرب. بالطبع هذا لا يبرر العنصرية والتجريح والاستفزاز بما يشبه العقاب والظلم الجماعي، إنما المطالبة الضرورية بالكف عن الحملات المشينة والتصرفات البذيئة ضد العرب والمسلمين، جماعة وأفراداً، تتطلب بدورها من الرأي العام العربي والمسلم أن يقف علناً ضد الإرهاب، وأن يحاربه بصراحة من دون شرح أسبابه ومبرراته كلما وقع وأينما وقع سواء في نيويورك أو مومباي.

 

العرب بصورة خاصة يُلصق بهم الإرهاب بصورة شبه تلقائية. هناك مشهد في فيلم عن استهداف عائلة في كاليفورنيا وتخريب حانوت لها في عملية عنصرية وكراهية يليه مشهد للأم في العائلة تبكي وتتحسر، لأن الذين قاموا بالتخريب اعتقدوا خطأ أن العائلة عربية. العائلة كانت إيرانية والنقطة ذات أهمية ذلك أن الذين يلصقون الإرهاب تلقائياً وبصورة عمياء يفعلون ذلك بالعرب وليس بالعجم مهما قالت الإدارة الأميركية إن طهران ترعى الإرهاب وتموّله وتحتضنه في إيران وخارجها.

 

حضور العرب في قمة الثماني سيكون على الأرجح عبر الإرهاب وعبر النفط، علماً بأن فلاديمير بوتين يريد للقمة أن تركز على الطاقة. غياب العرب عن القمة سيكون، كعادته، غياباً لمواقف استراتيجية وتغييباً لمساهمة ضرورية في القرارات العالمية التي تخص المنطقة.

 

إيران من جهتها تريد منع القمة من بحث ملف إيران في غيابها، وأوضحت ذلك عبر وزير خارجيتها منوشهر متقي الذي أنذر قادة الدول الثماني ألا يتخذوا القرارات من دون «استشارة» إيران أولاً. فطهران تحسن فن الديبلوماسية واللعبة السياسية، وهي تمتلك أوراقاً حقيقية، ووهمية، تعتزم تشغيلها الى أقصى فوائدها لإيران.

 

العالم في انتظار رد طهران على رزمة ترغيبها بالتعاون مع الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، لكن الحكومة الإيرانية ليست في عجلة ولن تسمح للآخرين باستعجالها. لذلك فشلت الجهود والضغوط الرامية الى استخراج رد ايراني قبل قمة الثماني. فإيران ردت بأن الرزمة معقدة وتحتاج ايضاح الغموض فيها. فرنسا قالت ان اصدار الانذارات والمواعيد الحاسمة قد يكون له رد عكسي غير مفيد. الصين، العملاق الغائب عن القمة، لاعب خارق الأهمية في ملف ايران وعضو فاعل ومؤثر في مجموعة الست التي قدمت الرزمة الى ايران وتضم الدول الخمس دائمة العضوية في مجلس الأمن والمانيا. وغياب الصين عن القمة سيغيب أي قرارات حاسمة في شأن ايران كما الأرجح ان يُبعد احتمال تحديد مواعيد حاسمة للردود الايرانية.

 

كل هذه الأمور راهنت عليها طهران، وتراهن، بحذاقة معهودة. تراهن على الأوروبيين الذين يريدون إرضاء ايران وليس استفزازها، وهم فرحون بالانخراط في الحوار والأخذ والعطاء لأن شراء الوقت حدث ولأنه رغبة أوروبية وأميركية وايرانية على السواء.

 

وتراهن على روسيا والصين اللتين تشكلان العمود الفقري لثقة ايران بنفسها وتصرفها بصورة توحي بإيمانها بأنها معفاة من المحاسبة والاستحقاقات. فالمسألة من وجهة نظر طهران ليست رياضة ديبلوماسية في الأمم المتحدة على رغم اهمية نجاحها في اخراج الملف من مجلس الأمن الدولي في انتصار ديبلوماسي قاده وزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف ووافقت عليه وزيرة الخارجية الاميركية كوندوليزا رايس في صفعة واضحة للسفير الاميركي جون بولتون الذي كان جعل من إبقاء ملف ايران في مجلس الأمن ركيزة السياسة الاستراتيجية الاميركية. المسألة ترتكز في عمقها الى السياسة النفطية في استراتيجيات الدول الكبرى للعقود المقبلة وليس في حسابات اليوم حصراً.

 

لكن طهران تراهن على حسابات اليوم عندما تدرس الوضع الاميركي في العراق والتحدي الآتي من كوريا الشمالية وبوادر الفشل في افغانستان حيث المؤشرات تفيد باحتمال عودة «طالبان» الى المشهد السياسي والمسرحي، بعدما ظنت الادارة الاميركية انها سحقت «طالبان» في حربها الانتقامية من «القاعدة» واسرعت الى مغامرتها في العراق. فذلك الساق من «محور الشر» الذي استعجلت اليه ادارة جورج دبليو بوش ، بدفع من زمرة المحافظين الجدد ومن أمثال نائب الرئيس ديك تشيني ووزير الدفاع دونالد رامسفيلد، بات موقع قدم انزلاق العظمة الاميركية. وايران تحسن الاستفادة من الفرص المواتية وبقدر اتقانها الرهانات مهما بدت مستبعدة.

 

وبين ما تراهن عليه طهران الآن هو العلاقة التهادنية التقليدية بين ايران واسرائيل. فعلى رغم كل هذا التصعيد اللفظي الذي يتمتع به كل من الرئيس الايراني محمود أحمدي نجاد، ورئيس الوزراء الاسرائيلي ايهود اولمرت فإن التدقيق في أحداث المنطقة لا يوحي بأن المواجهة آتية بين ايران واسرائيل.

 

أولمرت يحسن الانتقام من المدنيين الفلسطينيين ويتقن نسف الجسور والبنية التحتية مثل الكهرباء في قطاع غزة، انه يتصرف بصبيانية خطيرة ليبرهن ويثبت نفسه لاعباً يؤخذ بجدية. انه يستهدف الحلقة الاضعف، اي المدنيين الفلسطينيين، لأنه في الواقع قائد ضعيف. أولمرت يطالب باطلاق سراح الجندي الاسرائيلي من اسرائيل، وخالد مشعل متحدثاً باسم «حماس» يطالب بمقايضة الأسرى الفلسطينيين بالجندي الاسرائيل ويرد على اولمرت من سورية.

 

سماح دمشق لمشعل بالرد من سورية ملفت ويفيد بثقة بالنفس على نسق النموذج الايراني. كلاهما يبدو واثقاً بأن اسرائيل لن تغامر لا في سورية ولا في ايران، أقله في هذا المنعطف. كلاهما يبدو مراهناً على العلاقة التهادنية ذات التاريخ البعيد بين ايران واسرائيل، قبل الثورة الخمينية وبعدها، وعلى ارتياح اسرائيل الى الوضع الراهن داخل سورية وفي لبنان حتى بعنصر «حزب الله» داخله.

 

قد يكون هذا الرهان رابحاً، وقد يكون رهاناً خاسراً. ايهود اولمرت جديد على الساحة وقد يأتي بمفاجآت غير منتظرة، بالذات في الاطار السوري - الاسرائيلي وبعده الفلسطيني، على رغم اعتقاد البعض ان اسرائيل في حاجة الى ايران وسورية لكبح جماح «حزب الله» و «حماس» و «الجهاد الاسلامي».

 

ايران تبقى حذرة في علاقتها مع اسرائيل لأنها تدرك اهمية الحلقة الاسرائيلية في العلاقة الايرانية - الاميركية لذلك، أن طهران تستخدم القضية الفلسطينية والميليشيات الفلسطينية واللبنانية في معادلة مصالحها الوطنية بكل حرص عليها وبكل حذر، معاناة الابرياء الفلسطينيين تصبح هامشية في حسابات المصالح الاستراتيجية، هكذا تقتضي اللعبة السياسية وهذا ما يتقبله معظم الذين يمارسونها، عرباً وعجماً.

 

المحاور ليست جديدة على اللعبة السياسية، بعض منها واضح وبعضها خفي. لكن المحور الأكثر شهرة هو «محور الشر» الذي قد يكتب له التاريخ انه ذلك التعبير الذي اخترعه كاتب خطب ووجد فيه المحافظون الجدد واسرائيل باباً مشرعاً الى اختطاف رئيس اميركي امن بأنه مكلف بمهمة، وبقي مؤمناً حتى قضائه على مقومات التفرد الأميركي بالعظمة العالمية. انه الرئيس الاميركي الذي قد يصفه التاريخ بأنه كان مساهماً لا غنى عنه في ارتقاء روسيا والصين الى مرتبة العظمة.